When the NFL draft begins later this week, the general public understands the nuance that comes with this particular event. A certain percentage of first-rounders will bust, and a certain percentage of Day 3 and undrafted free agents will find their way onto All-Pro teams and into gold jackets. It's a tale as old as the draft itself. The most accomplished player in NFL history was taken with the 199th pick. It happens.
And yet, even in 2025, that same nuance and grace isn't extended to the recruiting industry, even though it's far more difficult to project players from high school to college than it is from college to professional football. Think about it everything we learn about players from ages 16, 17 and 18 to 20, 21 and 22:
How will a kid adapt a college weightlifting and nutrition program? Will he eat himself off the field, or is he already as big as he's going to get? How will he handle being away from home for the first time mentally and emotionally? Can he handle the rigors of a college playbook? Can he handle not being the best player on his team for the first time in his life? A new one: How does he deal with money and all that comes with it?
And then there are the practical advantages of scouting college kids vs. high schoolers. Grind the film of a South Carolina vs. Tennessee game and you have a general idea what type of competition the player is facing. In college, the tape might take you to a Texas 6A game, or an Idaho 1A game. The film quality often rises and falls with the level of ball you're watching.
Finally, a certain number of football careers will end due to injury. NFL scouts and Draft media have the advantage of the mere fact that the players they're watching have survived 3-to-4 years longer than their counterparts evaluating high school players.
I realize much of that is self-evident, but that's the point. A 0-star recruit who began his career at the FCS level going No. 1 overall isn't any more of an indictment on the system than a 7-time Super Bowl winner going No. 199.
Having said all that, the Drafters largely agree with the Recruiters: studs are studs. The 2025 first round projects to have nearly as many 5-stars (10) as 3- and 0-stars (11), despite the latter group being more than 20 times larger.
Projected 2025 first-rounders by high school star rating
5-stars: 10
4-stars: 11
3-stars: 9
Not rated: 2
And while NIL has undeniably changed college football, the data still shows that players aren't sticking around in college football when they have the opportunity to become a first-round pick.
Projected 2025 first-rounders by high school class
2022: 21
2021: 7
2020: 4
Draft info via Dane Brugler's April 16 mock draft. Recruiting info via 247Sports composite.
1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
As a recruit: Not rated by 247Sports out of Columbia High School in West Columbia, Texas, southwest of Houston. A member of the class of 2020. Turns out recruiting analysts and coaches alike don't take a ton of interest in average-sized QBs in Slot-T offenses.
As a player: Was the Southland Conference Player of the Year and a Walter Payton Award finalist after throwing for 47 touchdowns and winning a conference title in 2021 at Incarnate Word. Followed Eric Morris to Washington State, where he threw for nearly 7,000 yards and 48 touchdowns in two seasons. Completed his career at Miami, where he was a Heisman Trophy finalist, a consensus First Team All-American, the Davey O'Brien Award winner and the ACC Offensive Player of the Year after setting Miami single-season records with 4,313 yards, 39 touchdowns and a 67.2 percent completion rate.
Note: Will be the first No. 1 pick to begin his career below FBS since the Dallas Cowboys took Ed "Too Tall" Jones first out of Tennessee State in 1974.
2. Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
As a recruit: The No. 1 player in the class of 2022 who sent shockwaves through the sport when he flipped from Florida State to Jackson State on signing day 2021. Played at Collins Hill High School in Suwanee, Ga., northeast of Atlanta.
As a player: The first defensive player to win the Heisman Trophy since Charles Woodson in 1997, who also finished in the top five nationally in catches, yards and touchdowns. (In his Heisman season, Woodson caught 11 passes for two touchdowns; Hunter caught 95 and 15.)
Note: Will become the fifth No. 1 recruit taken first or second since 2010, and the first non-quarterback since Myles Garrett went first in 2017.
3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter (Edge, Penn State)
As a recruit: The No. 287 player, No. 28 linebacker and No. 10 Pennsylvanian in the class of 2022 out of La Salle College High School, an all-boys school in suburban Philadelphia.
As a player: The first Nittany Lion in nearly a decade to post a double-digit sack season, Carter left Penn State in the top 10 in program history in sacks (23) and TFLs (39.5). A Second Team All-Big Ten player was a true freshman in 2022, a First Teamer in 2023, and the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year in 2024. Penn State's 15th unanimous All-American, and first since Saquon Barkley.
Note: Will become the eighth Penn State defensive end or linebacker taken in the first round this century.
4. New England Patriots: Will Campbell (OT, LSU)
As a recruit: The No. 36 player and No. 4 offensive tackle in the class of 2022 out of Neville High School in Monroe, La. Was the highest-rated home-grown offensive tackle to sign with LSU since La'El Collins in 2011.
As a player: Named LSU's Offensive Lineman of the Year as a true freshman, Campbell became LSU's first consensus All-American offensive lineman in 20 years as a junior in 2024. Was given LSU's famed No. 7 jersey in 2023 and '24, given to the Tigers' best offensive player from Louisiana.
Note: Despite being a total bad ass in college football's most competitive conference from the moment he stepped on campus, it was treated it as a big deal when Campbell's arms measured 3/8th of an inch longer in Baton Rouge than they did in Indianapolis. Just a reminder to never take the NFL Draft Industrial Complex seriously.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
As a recruit: The No. 1,284 player and No. 90 running back in the class of 2022 out of Lone Star High School in Frisco, Texas, north of Dallas.
As a player: The first Maxwell Award winner from a Group of 5 school since Temple quarterback Steve Joachim in 1974, and the first Group of 5 Heisman runner-up since San Diego State's Marshall Faulk in 1992. The list of accomplishments on his Boise State bio is 56 bullet points long before getting into his season stats. His 2,601 rushing yards were the most since Barry Sanders's legendary 1988 season, and he led the nation with 374 carries while averaging 6.95 a pop.
Note: A near-lock to become the highest-selected Boise State Bronco ever (currently held by OT Ryan Clady, taken 12th in 2008.) If taken here, would become the highest running back selection since Saquon Barkley went second in 2018.
6. Las Vegas Raiders: Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
As a recruit: The No. 247 player and No. 32 defensive lineman in the class of 2022 out of Anaheim's Servite High School.
As a player: A Freshman All-American by Pro Football Focus, Graham joined the starting lineup in 2023, where he was a Second Team All-American, a First Team All-B1G honoree and the Rose Bowl defensive MVP. As a junior, he led the Michigan defensive line in every major statistic on his way to unanimous All-American honors and becoming a finalist for the Nagurski and Outland trophies.
7. New York Jets: Armand Membou (OT, Missouri)
As a recruit: The No. 502 player and No. 21 interior offensive lineman in the class of 2022 out of Lee's Summit North High School in Missouri.
As a player: Joined starting lineup during freshman season, did not earn All-SEC honors in 2023, and then pieced together a Second Team All-SEC season in 2024.
Note: Ran a 4.91 40-yard dash and put together the top athleticism score among NFL tackles at the combine. Curiously, he's projected to be taken lower than Campbell despite possessing arms that are half an inch longer.
8. Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
As a recruit: The No. 46 player and No. 4 outside linebacker in the class of 2022 out of Salisbury High School in North Carolina.
As a player: Joined the starting lineup in 2024, where he promptly won the Butkus Award as the nation's top linebacker, but was also a Second Team All-SEC selection.
Note: Will become the eighth Bulldog defender taken in the first round in the last four drafts.
9. New Orleans Saints: Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
As a recruit: You thought he was an unrated 0-star who transferred his way up, didn't you? No, McMillan was the highest-rated recruit in Arizona history -- the No. 51 player and No. 5 wide receiver in the class of 2022 out of Anaheim's Servite High School. Which means he'll be the No. 9 pick in the draft and the second best player in his high school's senior class.
As a player: In three seasons, McMillan set the Arizona program record for receiving yards, while ranking top five in catches and touchdowns. Caught 11 passes for 266 yards in a 59-23 win over Arizona State in 2023, then opened 2024 by snaring 10 passes for 304 yards and four touchdowns in a 61-39 win over New Mexico.
Note: If taken here, McMillan would be the highest-drafted Arizona player since linebacker Chris Singleton went eighth in 1990.
10. Chicago Bears: Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
As a recruit: The No. 543 player and No. 22 tight end in the class of 2020 out of Altee High School in Mechanicsville, Va.
As a player: The only player in Penn State history to catch 100 passes in a season, Warren owns Nittany Lions tight end records for catches, yards, touchdowns, and 100-yard games and a John Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end. Also, became the first B1G tight end in nearly 60 years to score four rushing touchdowns, and posted the highest finish by a tight end in Heisman Trophy voting (seventh) since 1977.
11. San Francisco 49ers: Shemar Stewart (Edge, Texas A&M)
As a recruit: The No. 9 player and No. 3 defensive lineman in the class of 2022 out of Monsignor Pace High School in Opa Locka, Fla.
As a player: Would perhaps set an NFL draft record for earliest selection by an edge defender who recorded only 1.5 sacks in season prior to the draft. Still, Stewart was a Third Team All-SEC player, after making the All-Freshman Team in 2022.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Matthew Golden (WR, Texas)
As a recruit: No. 210 player and No. 29 wide receiver in the class of 2022 out of Klein Cain High School in suburban Houston.
As a player: Signed with Houston out of high school. A stellar performance against Texas in 2023 (seven catches, 88 yards, two touchdowns) led him to transfer there, where he was originally set to play No. 2 to fellow WR transfer Isaiah Bond. After Bond injured his ankle mid-season, Golden stepped into the No. 1 role and played the part. Averaged 95 yards per game over Texas's final six games and 22 yards per catch over his final five. Also returned two kickoffs for touchdowns at Houston.
Note: If taken here, would be the earliest Longhorn WR drafted since 2004.
13. Miami Dolphins: Nick Emmanwori (DB, South Carolina)
As a recruit: No. 435 player and No. 39 safety in the class of 2022 out of Irmo High School in South Carolina.
As a player: A Freshman All-American in 2022, and then a First Team All-American in 2024. Led the Gamecocks with 88 tackles and tied for fourth in the SEC with four interceptions. Took two of those picks back for scores.
14. Indianapolis Colts: Colston Loveland (TE, Michigan)
As a recruit: No. 302 player and No. 14 tight end in the class of 2022 out of Gooding High School in Idaho.
As a player: Set a single-season tight end school record with 56 catches in 2024, which led the team. A 2-time All-Big Ten honoree and a Second Team All-American and a Mackey Award finalist in 2024. Never lost to Ohio State.
Note: On track to become the highest-selected Wolverines non-QB skill player since wide receiver Braylon Edwards went No. 3 in 2005.
15. Atlanta Falcons: Mike Green (Edge, Marshall)
As a recruit: Signed with Virginia out of high school as an athlete that projected to play wide receiver. The No. 702 player in the class of 2021 out of Lafayette High School in Williamsburg, Va.
As a player: Was one of Marshall's top D-ends by the end of 2023, and the nation's best in 2024. Led FBS with 17 sacks, 144 sack yardage, 22.5 TFLs, 155 yards lost by TFLs, and also recorded the most tackles by a defensive lineman (84). His 17 sacks were a Sun Belt record and tied a school record. Recorded 11 tackles in three separate games in 2024 en route to a Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year trophy.
Note: On track to become the highest-selected Thundering Herd player since QB Byron Leftwich went No. 7 in 2003, and the highest-selected Marshall defender ever.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Mykel Williams (Edge, Georgia)
As a recruit: No. 4 player and No. 2 defensive lineman in the class of 2022 out of Hardaway High School in Columbus, Ga.
As a player: Started "only" 17 games in his three seasons, including five in 2024. Posted five sacks in 2024, which was enough to get him a Second Team All-SEC nod and one below the number Javon Walker before he went No. 1 in 2022. What I'm saying is, he's a 5-star recruit who played the edge for Kirby Smart. There's no need to overthink this.
Note: Will become the ninth Bulldog defender taken in the first round in the last four drafts.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
As a recruit: No. 969 player and No. 117 defensive lineman in the class of 2021 out of Loyola High School in Detroit. Signed with Michigan State.
As a player: Redshirted in 2021, was a rotational player in 2022, then moved into Michigan State's starting lineup in '23. At Oregon in 2024, Harmon posted 45 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, five sacks, four PBUs, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. Per Pro Football Focus, led all DTs with 55 quarterback hurries, 11 more than any interior player. A Second Team All-American and a First Team All-Big Ten selection. Played in 42 career games.
18. Seattle Seahawks: Grey Zabel (IOL, North Dakota State)
As a recruit: Unrated recruit in the class of 2020 out of T.F. Riggs High School in Pierre, S.D.
As a player: Played in five games in spring 2021 covid season, and joined starting lineup as fourth-year junior in 2023. Started games at left guard, right guard and right tackle before settling in as NDSU's left tackle for all 16 games of the Bison's 2024 title run. Allowed one sack in 793 regular-season snaps on his way to consensus First Team All-American honors.
Note: Would become third Bison (first non-QB) taken in the first round, and the first FCS player since Northern Iowa's Trevor Penning went 19th in 2022.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
As a recruit: No. 21 player and No. 2 edge defender in the class of 2022 out of IMG Academy by way of Erial, N.J.
As a player: Worked his way into the lineup as a true sophomore in 2023. Finished eighth in Alabama history with 117 tackles while also leading the club with 11.5 TFLs and five sacks, plus one interception, two forced fumbles, two PBUs and two QB hurries. A Butkus and Bednarik Award semifinalist and a Second Team All-SEC honoree.
Note: Would become Nick Saban's 47th first-round draft pick at Alabama.
20. Denver Broncos: Omarion Hampton (RB, North Carolina)
As a recruit: No. 134 player and No. 11 running back in the class of 2022 out of Cleveland High School in Clayton, N.C.
As a player: A 3-year player who started for two seasons, Hampton was a 2-time Doak Walker Award finalist who left UNC in the top 10 in rushing yards, touchdowns, and 100-yard games. Was a 2-time All-ACC selection and a consensus Second Team All-American in 2024.
Note: Would become the highest non-QB Tar Heel drafted since TE Eric Ebron went 10th in 2014, and Mack Brown's 25th first-round pick.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
As a recruit: No. 247 overall player and No. 26 quarterback in the class of 2021 out of Trinity Christian Academy in Cedar Hill, Texas, near Dallas. Was originally committed to Florida Atlantic before signing with Jackson State.
As a player: Apparently one of the six best players in Colorado history. Threw for 14,353 yards and 134 touchdowns across 50 games. Set every CU single-season record in 2024 en route to winning the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award. Left CU with the eighth-highest QBR among all QBs with at least 13,000 passing yards.
Note: Would join 2021 as the only times in the last decade that QB2 was taken outside of the top 20. He'd also be the fourth player to begin his college career at the FCS level taken in the first round, the fourth Colorado QB ever drafted and the first CU QB taken in the first round.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
As a recruit: No. 444 overall player and No. 59 defensive tackle in the class of 2022 out of Merrillville High School in Indiana.
As a player: A contributor immediately as a true freshman, but did not join the starting lineup until 2024, but still a 2-time All-Big Ten selection. Collected 32 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, three sacks, three QB hurries, five PBUs, and two fumble recoveries in 2024. Never lost to Ohio State.
23. Green Bay Packers: Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
As a recruit: No. 15 overall player and No. 3 cornerback in the class of 2022 out of Grosse Pointe South High School near Detroit.
As a player: A First Team All-American on Michigan's 2023 title team, and a Second Team All-American in 2024. Was the Defensive MVP of the national championship game for posting four tackles and an interception, and also intercepted a pass in the 2023 win over Ohio State. Never lost to Ohio State.
Note: Would mark the first time since 2001 Michigan placed three players in the first round.
24. Minnesota Vikings: Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
As a recruit: No. 343 overall player and No. 25 cornerback in the class of 2020 out of Connally High School in Pflugerville, Texas, near Austin. Originally committed to Baylor.
As a player: Played slot corner until 2024 when he moved outside, where he promptly won the Thorpe Award. In 2024, switched to No. 7 in honor of Michael Huff, UT's first Thorpe winner. Played in 56 career games with 38 starts. Led the SEC with five interceptions in 2024, including three in two games against Georgia. Named defensive MVP of the Peach Bowl.
Note: Would be the fourth first-rounder of the Steve Sarkisian era at Texas, and the earliest Longhorn defensive back selected since 2013.
25. Houston Texans: Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
As a recruit: No. 2 player and No. 1 defensive linemen in the class of 2022 out of Powell High School in Tennessee, near Nashville. Signed with Texas A&M out of high school.
As a player: The 14th consensus All-American in Ole Miss history, Nolen helped the Rebels set school records and lead the nation with 53 sacks and 120 TFLs. He personally contributed 14 TFLs (eighth most in school history) and 6.5 sacks, with 48 total stops. Recorded more than three TFLs three times in a game.
Note: Would be the earliest Ole Miss defensive player drafted since Perria Jerry went 24th in 2009.
26. Los Angeles Chargers: Josh Conerly, Jr. (OL, Oregon)
As a recruit: No. 16 player and No. 2 offensive tackle in the class of 2022 out of Seattle's Rainier Beach High School.
As a player: Entered starting lineup as a true sophomore in 2023, where he started 27 of 27 possible games. Allowed two sacks in 1,005 drop backs over the last two seasons. A Third Team All-American in 2024 and helped Oregon become a finalist for the Joe Moore Award.
Note: Would be the Chargers' fourth first-round offensive lineman in the last five drafts, and the third of three first-round picks under Jim Harbaugh used on an offensive or defensive lineman.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Kelvin Banks, Jr. (OL, Texas)
As a recruit: No. 33 player and No. 3 offensive tackle in the class of 2022 out of Summer Creek High School in Humble, Texas, near Houston. Was committed to Oregon until Mario Cristobal took the Miami job.
As a player: A starter from Day 1, kept Alabama's Will Anderson out of the backfield in his second game as a collegian. Started in 41 of 42 possible games as a Longhorn. Won the Lombardi and Outland trophies and shared the SEC's Jacobs Blocking Trophy with LSU's Will Campbell.
Note: Would become the fifth first-rounder of the Steve Sarkisian era at Texas, and the first Longhorn O-lineman taken in the first round since Mike Williams went No. 4 in 2002.
28. Detroit Lions: Maxwell Hairston (CB, Kentucky)
As a recruit: No. 953 player and No. 79 cornerback in the class of 2021 out of West Bloomfield High School, near Detroit.
As a player: Redshirted in 2021. Joined starting lineup as a third-year player in 2023, winning Second Team All-SEC honors. Was also a Second Team All-SECer in 2024 despite appearing in just seven games. Posted seven tackles and a PBU against Texas.
Note: Would be the fifth Kentucky first-rounder of the 21st century, all of whom played defense.
29. Washington Commanders: Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
As a recruit: No. 10 player and No. 1 wide receiver in the class of 2021 out of Steliacoom High School, in the Seattle-Tacoma area.
As a player: Played in 51 career games with 40 starts, catching 205 passes for 2,868 yards for 24 touchdowns. Led the Buckeyes with 81 catches en route to the 2024 national title and became the second Ohio State wideout to register two 1,000-yard seasons. A team captain and Academic All-Big Ten honoree who graduated in three years who made the All-Big Ten Third Team in 2024.
Note: Would extend Ohio State's streak of consecutive drafts with a first-round wide receiver to four, and the program's overall first-round streak to nine. Would become Brian Hartline's fifth first-rounder and his eighth draft pick.
30. Buffalo Bills: Malaki Starks (DB, Georgia)
As a recruit: No. 19 overall player and No. 1 safety in the class of 2022 out of Jefferson High School in Georgia.
As a player: A finalist for the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year in 2022, Starks was a consensus First Team All-American in 2023 and a consensus Second Team All-American in '24. Started 42 of 43 games as a Bulldog, and led Georgia with 77 tackles in 2024.
Note: Would be the third time in four drafts Georgia produces three first-rounders, and Kirby's 10th first-round defender over that span.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Simmons (OT, Ohio State)
As a recruit: Signed with San Diego State as the No. 342 player and No. 25 interior offensive lineman in the class of 2021 out of Helix High School in La Mesa, Calif., near San Diego.
As a player: Redshirted in 2021, started at right tackle in 2022, then transferred to Ohio State. Slid in as Ohio State's starting left tackle in 2023, but his senior season ended after six games. Despite playing half the regular season, was still named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten in 2024.
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Edge, Boston College)
As a recruit: No. 1,240 player and No. 132 linebacker in the class of 2021 out of Williamstown High School in New Jersey.
As a player: Led FBS with 1.38 sacks per game, which won him the Ted Hendricks Award as the nation's top defensive end, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and made him BC's 13th consensus All-American. Also led the Eagles with 8.5 sacks as a sophomore in 2022.
Note: If taken here, would become BC's third first-rounder in the last four drafts, and make him the Eagles' highest-drafted defender since Luke Kuechly went ninth in 2009.