Most conference affiliations are marriages of convenience, and a new proposal will likely go out soon.
ESPN reported Sunday that Texas State is a "heavy favorite" to receive a Pac-12 invitation and, if/when that happens, it will likely come at some point within the next two weeks. On July 1, Texas State's buyout to get out of the Sun Belt Conference in time for the 2026 football season doubles, from $5 million to $10 million.
The revived Pac-12 has to invite at least one more football-playing school to join by 2026 to hit the minimum number of members required to be a viable FBS conference. As ESPN reported, Texas State has the support of Pac-12 presidents and the league likes the idea of having a foothold in the state of Texas (more on this in a bit). As you'll see below, Texas State certainly fits the theme of Pac-12 football schools (Gonzaga also joins the conference on July 1, 2026).
2026 Pac-12 Football Membership
Boise State
Colorado State
Fresno State
Oregon State
San Diego State
Utah State
Washington State
Though the league seems excited about the prospect of adding Texas State, the Bobcats were not the Pac-12's first choice. The league previously took swings at Air Force and UNLV, but those schools opted to remain bigger fish in a smaller pond in the Mountain West. The Pac-12 also approached American Athletic Conference schools like Memphis, Tulane and UTSA, but the math never worked. The AAC requires a $25 million buyout to leave the conference with fewer than 27 months' notice, and it remains to be seen if the revived Pac-12 will be a more valuable conference than the current AAC.
That left Texas State, who did not play FBS football until 2012 and did not play in an FBS bowl game until 2023, as the key to all realignment west of the Mississippi. At one point the Bobcats were marketing themselves to the Pac-12, the AAC and the Mountain West, but now the Pac-12 seems by far likely the most likely option. Mike Craven of Dave Campbell's Texas Football reported that Texas State would accept a Pac-12 invite "immediately." In fact, last week Texas State president Kelly Damphouse retweeted an image of two beavers swimming in the San Marcos River, which runs near Texas State's campus.
Until recently, that river and the school's proximity to both Austin and San Antonio was the most enticing reason to attend Texas State. But in two seasons, 36-year-old GJ Kinne has established himself as easily the school's best head coach since the move to FBS, placing him in a triumvirate (along with President Damphouse and AD Don Coryell) that gives Pac-12 leadership the confidence to make the San Marcos River as an unofficial tributary of the Pacific Ocean.
And speaking of the Pacific Ocean, a Texas State move would further cement the state of Texas's status as the official crossroads of conference realignment.
From 1914 to 1996, major college football in the Lone Star State was defined as packing the state's eight largest schools within a single conference. But since the Southwest Conference's extinction in the mid-1990s, Texas schools have scattered like tumbleweeds in a late-spring thunderstorm. In fact, the only Texas schools to be in the same conference from 2010 to 2025 are Baylor and Texas Tech, who remain in a Big 12 Conference that has changed almost completely around them.
If and when Texas State joins the Pac-12, the state of Texas will have schools in the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Pacific-12 Conference. (It goes without saying that the ACC also has two Bay Area schools, and the Pac-12, formerly known as the Pac-8 and the Pac-10, would have nine members.)
Though the number of conferences represented in Texas's state borders would not change on its own with a Texas State move (the Bobcats are presently the Sun Belt's only Texas school), it could lead to a domino effect that results in an FCS school jumping up. If/when Texas State leaves, ESPN reports, the Sun Belt is likely to replace them with Louisiana Tech, which would then cause Conference USA to pull Tarleton up from FCS. The Stephenville, Texas, based school competed at the Division II level until 2020.
If that happens, Texas would have 14 FBS institutions spread across seven conferences.
Possible State of Texas Conference Affiliation, 2026
SEC: Texas, Texas A&M
Big 12: Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech
ACC: SMU
American: North Texas, Rice, UTSA
Pac-12: Texas State
Mountain West: UTEP
Conference USA: Sam Houston, Tarleton
As always, stay tuned to The Scoop for the latest.