They say history doesn't repeat, it rhymes. In Norman, Okla., it rhymes with a Panhandle twang.
In 2015, Bob Stoops was coming off his worst season as Oklahoma's head coach. The Sooners, who'd won five Big 12 titles in the previous eight seasons, tied for fourth in the conference and were hammered by Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Needing a reboot, Stoops fired a member of the 2000 national title team, Josh Heupel, and brought in 31-year-old Lincoln Riley, a Muleshoe, Texas, native, to reinvigorate the offense. Riley's offense was a perfect fit for Baker Mayfield, a fellow Texan who was overlooked in the recruiting process due to his 6-foot-flat-on-a-good-day stature, but who played like he was 6-foot-5. Together, they reinvigorated not only the Sooner offense but the entire program; OU ripped off six consecutive Big 12 titles and made the College Football Playoff four in the next five years.
A decade later, Brent Venables is now coming off his worst season as Oklahoma's head coach. The Sooners, who have not won their conference in four years, tied for 13th in their maiden voyage in the SEC and lost to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl. Needing a reboot, Venables fired a member of the 2000 national title team, Seth Littrell, and brought in 30-year-old Ben Arbuckle, a Canadian, Texas, native, to reinvigorate the offense. Arbuckle's offense is a perfect fit for John Mateer, a fellow Texan who was overlooked in the recruiting process due to his 6-foot-flat-on-a-good-day stature, but who plays like he is 6-foot-5.
We've now arrived at the point where Venables, Arbuckle and Mateer stop striding step for step in Stoops, Riley and Mayfield's Nike tracks and break off to their own path. The SEC of 2025 is not the Big 12 of 2015. No one expects OU to rip off six consecutive championships in the It Just Means More Conference.
But though the path is steeper and the bar lower, the consequences of not achieving the objective are going to be far greater for Venables, and in turn for his new offensive coordinator.
Venables is 22-17 in three seasons, and 12-14 in conference play. OU has finished under .500 twice in three years for the first time since the late 1990s, which was so long ago it might as well be the 1890s. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has hired Randall Stephenson to oversee the football program and Jim Nagy to oversee the roster. AD Joe Castiglione is retiring, and Stephenson is running the search for his replacement. In short, there's a new sheriff in town, and another sub-.500 season will see Venables and his staff out of jobs.
The good news is, Arbuckle doesn't have to be a miracle worker to keep everyone employed. The 2024 Sooner offense was a special kind of dysfunctional: historic injuries at the wide receiver position, constant shuffling on the O-line, the wrong quarterback for the scheme, the wrong scheme for the quarterback, and just a whole lot of wrong place, wrong time. Average, replacement-level improvement is probably enough. What does that look like?
Let's start here: in 2024, Oklahoma finished 124th nationally in yards per play (4.81), 97th in scoring (24.0 ppg), and its starting quarterback Jackson Arnold ranked 95th in quarterback rating (124.78). Meanwhile, at Washington State, Arbuckle's offense recorded 6.62 yards per play (10th nationally) and 36.6 points a game (sixth), and Mateer's 164.09 rating places him behind only Duke's Darian Mensah for the highest-rated returning quarterback in college football.
If 2025 OU simply splits the difference between 2024 OU and 2024 Wazzu, we're talking about an offense that averages around 5.6 yards per play and 30 points a game. Combine that with a defense that should comfortably rank within the top 15 nationally, you're easily within the 8-win threshold that Venables needs to return in 2026.
But what if Arbuckle's new offense is better than average? Mateer put up 3,965 total yards and 44 touchdowns in 12 games last season. Transfer running back Jaydn Ott ran for 1,315 yards and 12 touchdowns at Cal in 2023, his last healthy season. At receiver... it almost doesn't even matter. Oklahoma played chunks of last season with its top five wideouts unable to dress; that simply isn't happening again. Average would be an upgrade. At media day on Wednesday, Arbuckle praised a different position group. “The offensive line watched more film this summer than probably any other position group. I’m excited about that group heading into fall camp.”
Venables says the offensive line made the most improvement this summer of any position group in the weight room. #Sooners
— George Stoia III (@GeorgeStoia) July 30, 2025
If the new ingredients in crimson and cream mix decently well, Oklahoma will be a top 25 team at minimum. If they mix perfectly? It really might be 2015 all over again.