CollegeFootballMatrix.com has put together a unique study that you may enjoy reading.
The site has researched from 2002-2008, the average team recruiting ranking vs. the number of NFL draft picks per school. The purpose of the study is to show viewers the level of accuracy of the final recruiting rankings, presumably from Scout or Rivals.
Of course, the number of total draft choices should not solely indicate the actual strength of a recruiting class.
Here’s an example in the study:
From 2002-2008, the average team recruiting ranking for Utah is 64th nationally. Utah, however, has produced the 34th most NFL draft choices since 2002. Therefore, Utah is awarded a +30 total.
From 2002-2008, the average team recruiting ranking for Clemson is 19th nationally. Clemson, however, has produced the 26th most NFL draft choices since 2002. Therefore, Clemson is awarded a -7 total.
From 2002-2008, the average team recruiting ranking for USC is 1st nationally. USC has produced the #1 most NFL draft choices since 2002. Therefore, USC is awarded a 0 total.
The site is pointing out that Utah’s recruiting classes are undervalued, Clemson’s classes are overvalued, and USC is pretty much dead accurate.
According to the study, the top 10 most undervalued recruiting classes belong to Utah, Cincinnati, Iowa, Wisconsin, Stanford, Louisville, Purdue, Oregon State, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech.
The top 10 most overvalued recruiting classes (starting with the absolute most grossly overvalued class) belong to Baylor, Duke, Michigan, Clemson, Missouri, Illinois, Auburn, South Carolina, Texas Tech, and Arizona.
The study seems to indicate that of the teams that average a Top 25 recruiting ranking, it's Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss that consistently have the most overvalued recruiting classes. Okie State’s average team recruiting ranking from 2002-2008 is 25th nationally, but the Cowboys have produced just the 53rd most NFL draft choices. They score a -28.
Texas A&M’s average team recruiting ranking from 2002-2008 is 14th nationally, but the Aggies have produced the 39th most NFL draft choices. They score a -25.
Ole Miss’ average team recruiting ranking from 2002-2008 is tied with Oklahoma State for 25th nationally. The Rebels have produced the 42ndmost NFL draft choices during that period. They score a -17.
Check out the entire study. It’s interesting. Draw your own conclusions.