Alabama-Tennessee is about avoiding the uncomfortable conversation: On the Line

Alabama goes to Knoxville for an SEC elimination game. The saying will be that either team can still get in the Playoff with a loss -- so long as they win out. And that's probably true. A 10-2 Alabama with a win over Georgia isn't getting let out, and likewise for a 10-2 Tennessee with a win over Georgia (assuming they get one). But that's not the right conversation to have.

Getting in the Playoff is one thing, winning it is another. The loser on the Third Saturday in October (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) is likely eliminated from SEC championship contention, considering they'd have two losses and lose a tie-breaker to Saturday's victor. So, a first-round bye is out the window, and a coveted No. 5 and No. 6 seed is likely out as well. Saturday's loser is looking at a tough first-round game, possibly on the road, and then two tough games to even get to the national championship. 

And that's best case scenario.

Alabama returns to Neyland Stadium for the first time since one of the best games of the decade, and the high point of post-1998 Tennessee football. The Tide also rolls in at the relative low point since pre-recorded history (pre-Saban hiring). 

Two relative strengths appear to be weaknesses. In SEC play only, Tennessee is 11th in the SEC in passing efficiency, averaging 6.9 per attempt with one touchdown in 76 passes. In SEC games only, Alabama is 12th in pass efficiency defense.

If Alabama loses, the Tide will have followed the Georgia win with a loss to Vanderbilt, a near-loss to South Carolina, then an actual loss to Tennessee. Whatever mystical place Alabama needed to reach to "move beyond" the retirement of the greatest coach of all-time, it seemed there and then some at halftime of the Georgia win. Since then, Alabama would seemingly move further away by the quarter.

For Tennessee, the highs of October 2022 will fade further into the distance, especially considering their neighbors to the west found a way to beat this same Tide team just a few weeks ago. Was 2022 the end point, and not the beginning of a new era? If Tennessee can't gain an upper hand on Alabama now, will it ever happen again?

A prove-it game in Austin, but for who? Oct. 13, 2018. That's the last time Georgia lost a true road game anywhere other than Bryant-Denny Stadium. So, it sounds insane to argue Texas has less to prove in a game against a team that hasn't lost to anyone other than Alabama since 2020, and hasn't lost in a non-Alabama opponent's stadium in six full years.

But, Texas has looked every bit like the No. 1 team in the country so far this season. We're halfway into the season, and the Longhorns have trailed for all of one drive. 

"The most complete team we've faced this year, probably in multiple years. When you look at what they're doing defensively, offensively and special teams, they are clearly one of the best teams in the country with what they do," Kirby Smart himself said this week.

Georgia, meanwhile, hasn't looked like Georgia aside from a couple of halves this year. They're mediocre against the pass, and 92nd in the country on the ground. The teams share a common opponent in Mississippi State; Texas limited State to 13, Georgia let them score 31. 

Then again, it's Georgia. No one's going to be surprised if Smart's team hits Texas with the complete game that's eluded them thus far this season. 

But if Texas wins -- they're five point favorites as I type this -- who would've ever thought it would take the Longhorns all of four games to climb to the top of the SEC heap when the move was announced back in 2021?

The nation meets Coach Cigs. Believe it or not, Saturday is not Indiana's Big Noon debut. The Hoosiers have appeared in the Big Ten's premier TV window five times previously, each time as guest stars against a top-5 Michigan or Ohio State squad. 

But, c'mon. Indiana is making its Big Noon debut on Saturday. The 16th-ranked Hoosiers are the stars of the show against unranked-but-improved Nebraska.

"I made some comments out there publicly that I usually don't do when I take a job, but when I got here, I just detected this gloom around the program, this hopelessness," Cignetti told Pat McAfee this week.

The only people feeling hopeless around IU football now are opposing defenders. The Hoosiers are top-5 nationally in total yardage, yards per play and scoring, and quarterback Kurtis Rourke leads the nation in passing efficiency. The Ohio transfer is hitting nearly 75 percent of his throws for 11 per pop. 

Now, we'll list the defenses IU has faced this season:

-- FIU: No. 70 in yards per play allowed
-- Western Illinois: FCS
-- UCLA: No. 66
-- Charlotte: No. 124
-- Maryland: No. 76
-- Northwestern: No. 51

Okay, so the Hoosiers haven't faced a murderer's row of defenses. But what about their seventh-ranked defense?

-- FIU: No. 99 in yards per play
-- Western Illinois: FCS
-- UCLA: No. 119
-- Charlotte: No. 97
-- Maryland: No. 68
-- Northwestern: No. 118

Okay, so IU hasn't faced a top-50 unit on either side of the ball. Nebraska's offense isn't in the top 50, but the defense is in the top 10, which means at least one side of the Indiana juggernaut will be tested, and I know what you're thinking:

Finally, Indiana will play somebody.

Additional Games

-- Georgia State at Marshall (7 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN2): At 1-1 in Sun Belt play and facing West leader ULM next week, Charles Huff's team needs a victory to stay in the conference championship race.

-- Boston College at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN): It's too early to fully dive into conference championship scenarios, but at 1-1 and with four undefeated teams ahead of them, the loser of this game all but exits the ACC title race.

-- Florida State at Duke (7 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN2): A wins punches Duke's bowl eligibility ticket the at the earliest point in the calendar since 2014, while Florida State would need to sweep through a second-half schedule that includes No. 6 Miami, No. 12 Notre Dame and Florida to avoid becoming the first team to go from 12-0 to missing a bowl game since... 2023 TCU.

-- No. 2 Oregon at Purdue (8 p.m. ET Friday, Fox): I mean this with complete sincerity -- winning on the road on a Friday at Purdue immediately after beating No. 2 Ohio State would be at least 53 percent as impressive as slaying the Buckeyes as the first place. 

-- No. 6 Miami at Louisville (noon ET, ABC): Jeff Brohm has beaten a ranked team in October in five of his six seasons as a major-conference coach (2020 excluded), including a blowout of No. 2 Ohio State, a smothering of No. 2 Iowa, and a 13-point win over No. 10 Notre Dame just last season. Brohm also beat a No. 3 Michigan State while at Purdue, but that was in November, so does it really count?

-- Auburn at No. 19 Missouri (noon ET, ESPN): Auburn is a 2-4 team that's played like a fringe top-25 teams on a down-to-down basis. They're just next-to-last in turnover margin. Now, the orange-and-blue Tigers were neutral in that category against Georgia and still lost by 18. I have to feel like Auburn wins this game if they get things figured out, but when they figure things out is anyone's guess.

-- South Carolina at Oklahoma (12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Oklahoma's ability to score a point is now under question, especially against this South Carolina front. The Sooners just simply are not explosive, at all, on top of their other issues. In Shane Beamer's return to Norman after three seasons as a Lincoln Riley assistant. The team that wins turnovers, wins the game, and the loser becomes a greater than 50 percent bet to miss a bowl game.

-- No. 12 Notre Dame at Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Notre Dame simply cannot lose as a multi-touchdown favorite if the season is to avoid train wreck status. This game begins a run of three AP top-15 opponents in Georgia Tech's final five games.

-- No. 24 Michigan at No. 22 Illinois (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): This is a massive game for Bret Bielema. Illinois last defeated Michigan in 2009, and the Illini have downed the Wolverines all of six times since 1966. Wins over Michigan are once-a-decade events for Illinois, and Memorial Stadium hosts its first ranked matchup since a 10th-ranked Michigan beat a 19th-ranked Illini in 2000, a full quarter century ago. However, the last time these teams met, a much worse Illinois took a much better Michigan to the buzzer in the Big House. Illinois has an edge at head coach and quarterback, and that needs to convert to a victory.

-- Ohio at Miami of Ohio (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): In the 100th Battle of the Bricks, Ohio looks to win in Oxford for the sixth time in eight tries while also keeping pace atop the MAC standings.

-- Toledo at Northern Illinois (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): No further comment necessary.

-- USC at Maryland (4 p.m. ET, FS1): If there's ever a time when you want to take a young team clear across the country for a road game, it's right now for USC following that Penn State loss. This is the ultimate "It's just us" road trip game. Now, if USC loses, that 5-hour flight will feel like 15 hours.

-- Baylor at Texas Tech (4 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Three teams are unscathed thus far in Big 12 play. Two, Iowa State and BYU, are in the AP top-15; unranked Texas Tech is the other. Related: Iowa State and BYU are first and second in the Big 12 in scoring defense; Texas Tech is 16th of 16. 

-- No. 14 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
-- No. 8 LSU at Arkansas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Next week's Tigers-Aggies showdown puts the winner on the inside track to play for an SEC championship and reach the College Football Playoff, assuming they both win on Saturday. A&M is 1-4 in its last five trips to Starkville, and four straight LSU-Arkansas games were decided by one score.

-- No. 17 Kansas State at West Virginia (7:30 p.m. ET, Fox): Ah, the Big 12, where you get to visit the Rockies and the Appalachians in consecutive weeks. That's not ideal from a body-clock perspective from Kansas State, but they'll win this game so long as Avery Johnson takes care of the football.

-- North Texas at Memphis (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): Five teams are undefeated in AAC play so far. One of the five plays in this game, and it's not Memphis. North Texas has averaged nearly 45 a game in its five wins, and Chandler Morris leads the American in passing yards (by 71 yards a game) and passing touchdowns (by 10). In fact, Morris is tied with Cam Ward for the national lead in scoring strikes.

-- Kentucky at Florida (7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network): A must-not-lose for both teams, but especially Florida, who after their upcoming idle week faces No. 5 Georgia, No. 1 Texas, No. 8 LSU and No. 18 Ole Miss in consecutive weeks.

-- UNLV at Oregon State (10 p.m. ET, The CW): It sounds odd to say considering they're going on the road to face a former and future Pac-12 team, but UNLV simply must take care of business before the biggest home game in school history next Friday night against No. 15 Boise State.