An early deep dive into college quarterback free agency

Back in December, Dillon Gabriel announced he would leave Oklahoma to play his sixth and final season at Oregon. At the time, allowing their two-year incumbent starting quarterback to walk made sense on Oklahoma's part: Gabriel came to OU to play for Jeff Lebby, who was no longer there, and OU assuredly did not have the money to pay both he and Jackson Arnold while also making the necessary investments elsewhere. And so the Sooners opted for the rising sophomore with three years to play and a perceived higher upside. 

Then, on Monday, OU head coach Brent Venables announced he has benched Arnold in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins. The announcement came after a disastrous effort against Tennessee, where Arnold hit 7-for-16 passes for 54 yards with an interception and a fumble. Through three and a half games, and against a mostly soft schedule outside of Saturday night, Arnold ranks 100th nationally in passing efficiency and outside the top 100 in yards per attempt.

In isolation, both decisions make sense. Taken together, a proud, well-funded program with a championship-caliber defense has entrusted its season to a true freshman quarterback with four garbage-time pass attempts before Saturday. 

In an era of free movement and an active economy for paying quarterbacks, how is this possible?

Turns out, Oklahoma's predicament is emblematic of college football's new era where programs bet everything on who to acquire, promote, or allow to walk at the QB1 position. And most of those bets are misses. 

Let's take a look at some other prominent quarterback decisions made over the offseason.

Arkansas: Allowed/encouraged KJ Jefferson to walk while bringing in Taylen Green from Boise State. Combined with the hiring of Bobby Petrino as OC, the Hogs have improved from 116th to 27th in yards per play and from 69th to 20th in scoring, though it's early and Green's individual numbers are not impressive (53.7% completions, 4 TDs vs. 4 INTs). Verdict: Not totally clear, but mostly positive?

Florida State: Opted for DJ Uiagaleilei after missing on Cam Ward. DJ U continues to garner all the QB1 reps despite ranking outside the top 100 in efficiency. Verdict: Abject disaster.

Kansas State: Similar to Oklahoma. OC Collin Klein left for Texas A&M and Will Howard took an offer from Ohio State that K-State could not match. Still, the Wildcats talked themselves into scintillating sophomore Avery Johnson being an upgrade. Four games in, Johnson is 78th in efficiency (61.1% completions, 6.5 ypa, 6 TDs vs. 3 INTs) while rushing for 261 yards and no touchdowns. Verdict: TBD.

Louisville: Jeff Brohm simply needed competent quarterback play after winning 10 games a year ago, and so far he's getting that out of sixth-year player Tyler Shough. We'll learn a lot Saturday when the No. 15 Cardinals visit No. 16 Notre Dame. Verdict: It's early, but so far, so good. 

Miami: Paid Cam Ward enough to remove his name from NFL draft consideration and to turn down Florida State. Whatever the final amount happened to be, it was a bargain.

Verdict: A potential program-altering investment. 

Michigan: Michigan opted not to bring in a quarterback to replace JJ McCarthy, banking that Alex Orji would blossom from part-time package to a full-time starting quarterback. Orji lost the QB1 job in training camp, then former walk-on Davis Warren lost it on the field. Now, Michigan will trudge forward with Orji's limited game in an effort to prevent all-out disaster. Verdict: Should've brought in a transfer.

NC State: After re-writing the record book at Coastal Carolina, NC State brought in Grayson McCall, who did not throw a touchdown pass and failed to average five yards per attempt against Tennessee and Louisiana Tech before going down to injury. It's now freshman CJ Bailey's show, though it's clear this Wolfpack team has severe problems all over the place. Verdict: An understandable gamble, but a miss nonetheless. 

Notre Dame: At a reported $1 million price tag, Leonard excels in certain aspects of quarterbacking (322 rushing yards, 6 TDs) that don't involve throwing the football down the field. Currently, Notre Dame is paying $1 million per touchdown pass, with a season high of 163 passing yards. Following his abysmal performance in the Northern Illinois loss (20-of-32 for 163 yards, 0 TDs vs. 2 INTs), Notre Dame and Leonard will have to be perfect the rest of the way to attain their stated goal of making the CFP. Verdict: Likely miss.

Ohio State: Allowed/encouraged/demanded Kyle McCord to transfer, then acquired Howard over returning backups Devin Brown and Lincoln Kienholz. Howard is 11th in passing efficiency (68.9%/10.7/6 vs. 1), but the truth of this decision will be rendered in January, not September. Verdict: TBD.

Oregon: Brought in to be the left-handed Bo Nix, and so far, so good. Gabriel leads the nation in completion percentage (84.0) while averaging 9.7 yards per attempt and has yet to throw an interception. Verdict: Still early, but almost certainly a wise bet.

UCF: Another situation where a transfer (John Rhys Plumlee) is replaced with another transfer, but Gus Malzahn's offense requires a certain type of fit and KJ Jefferson certainly appears to be one so far. Jefferson is 10th in passing efficiency and (three games in), they've added 150 yards per game to their rushing average to a national-best 375.7. Verdict: So far, so great. 

Wisconsin: Like Florida State and Notre Dame, Wisconsin replaced a transfer with another transfer, acquiring Tyler Van Dyke from Miami. TVD threw one touchdown pass against Western Michigan and South Dakota -- combined -- before tearing his ACL against Alabama. Now Wisconsin will begrudgingly hand the ball to another transfer in ex-Mississippi State QB Braedyn Locke. Verdict: Miss.  

So, there's a quick, early look at a non-exhaustive list of high-profile quarterback decisions made over the offseason. Of the 13 schools examined, I count one unqualified success (Miami), two instances where dominant teams brought in veterans to aid championship runs that are still months away (Ohio State, Oregon), and a whole lot of other situations where we still need more data, where the QB position is weighed down by problems elsewhere no matter who was under center, and complete misses.

Also, it's September. We're not making value judgements yet, simply monitoring trends and throwing out data points.

Before we close, here's another early data point to monitor: AP Top 15 teams, notated by the number of years the starting quarterback has spent in the program.

1. Texas (3rd year)
2. Georgia (5th year)
3. Ohio State (1st year)
4. Alabama (4th year)
5. Tennessee (2nd year)
6. Ole Miss (3rd year)
7. Miami (1st year)
8. Oregon (1st year)
9. Penn State (3rd year)
10. Utah (6th year)
11. Missouri (5th year)
12. Michigan (3rd year)
13. USC (4th year)
14. LSU (4th year)
15. Louisville (1st year)

The full story here won't be told until January... but the portal opens in early December, and the budget for 2025 QB1 will have to be set by then. Let's circle back here at the end of the regular season. 

As always, stay tuned to The Scoop for the latest.