What a Knight Commission report calls the “crossover point” – where football coaches’ salaries exceed all expenditures for athletes’ scholarships and medical expenses – already is happening at nine Autonomy 5 Public Institutions, including a quartet of Southeastern Conference schools.
The Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics’ financial projections report, based off third-party analysis from national accountancy firm CliftonLarsonAllen, LLP, projects Football Bowls Subdivisions institutions to generate nearly $21 billion in revenue within the decade – specifically by 2032.
Of that, a whopping 80 percent -- $16.7 billion – projects to be derived by the 54 Autonomy 5 intistitutions.
The nine institutions, per the report, already surpassing the crossover point – more in coaching salaries than expenditures upon all student-athletes – incude SEC residents Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas; Big 12 programs Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, as well as soon-to-be-SEC-program Texas; the ACC and Big Ten conferences had one school apiece, Florida State and Iowa, respectively.
Presently, 15 FBS coaches make at least $7 million per season atop their respective programs, with Alabama's Nick Saban, Clemson's Dabo Swinney, Georgia's Kirby Smart and USC's Lincoln Riley all at or above $10 million. Additionally, term contracts for LSU's Brian Kelly, Michigan State's Mel Tucker and Texas A&M's Jimbo Fisher all are nearly nine-figure deals at or above $90 million.
“CLA’s projections should shift the attention of Division I FBS leaders from the pursuit of even more revenue to how the billions in new – and uncommitted – revenue should be used to better support college athletes,” Knight Commission co-chair Len Elmore, a former Maryland Terps All-American basketball player who also starred in the NBA, said in a release. “Our Commission developed a series of solutions that provide an alternative path for university presidents and other leaders to alter the runaway spending course of FBS programs.
“Our Commission urges university presidents, the (College Football Playoff) Board of Managers, and NCAA President Charlie Baker to take up our recommendations.”
While the Commission report already finds nine A-5 institutions at the “crossover point,” it projects that number to reach 25 of the current 54 A-5 members within the timeframe of the study.
In fact, per the report, the Commission projects football coaching salaries alone at those A-5 institutions – using current salary data and contract forecasts – to be $1.363 billion.
The release notes that figure is expected to be just $9 million less than the total expenditures for “athlete scholarships and medical expenses” for the more than 30,000 student-athletes for all sports at those A-5 schools.
A couple of additional, notable figures from the Knight Commission report include:
The $16.7 billion revenue projection for the A-5 schools is more than 200% greater than its 2022 mark, coming in at $7.3 billion.
Group of 5 projections for the end of the study’s term in 2032 expect those leagues (American Athletic Conference, Conference-USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, SunBelt Conference) to compile $3.8 billion in revenue, also well more than double its $1.7 billion production of a year ago.