The College Football Playoff announced its move from a 4-team event to 12 in June of 2021 to begin in 2024, and the format as originally constructed lasted all of one month. Conference realignment made the original format obsolete, and quickly: Texas and Oklahoma announced their intent to join the SEC in July 2021, and the resulting moves saw the near-complete dissolution of the Pac-12.
The CFP's Powers That Be responded by changing their format from 6 + 6 (automatic bids for the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large bids) to 5 + 7, but otherwise the format remained the same.
When the CFP announced its 12-team format back in 2021, they envisioned a top-4 looking something like it would have had the conferences remained as they were: Oregon (Pac-12 champ), Georgia (SEC champ), Texas (Big 12 champ) and Ohio State (B1G champ) in some order.
Instead, due to forces beyond their control, this week we'll play quarterfinals where the B1G and SEC runners-up are 11 and 14-point favorites, respectively, while the top overall seed and is a 2.5-point underdog.
Needless to say, this reality wasn't on anyone's vision board back in 2021.
The Action Network reported Monday that FBS conference commissioners are expected to have "in-depth discussions" in January about changing the seeding format for the 2025 season.
The natural change should be to simplify the process by making the Playoff more like every other NCAA tournament: automatic bids for the top five conference champions, but nothing more. March Madness does not reserve a top-8 seed for the Atlantic Sun champion, after all.
“We should be open to getting (the seeding) right regardless of what that means,” one conference commissioner told the site. “But protecting conference champions and securing a spot in the playoff is a must.”
Below, on the left is how the actual CFP was seeded in 2024, and on the right is how the Playoff would've been seeded without preferential treatment for conference champions.
As you can see, the teams would have been the same, just seeded in a wildly different order. Arizona State, ranked 12th by the committee, still would have had a ticket to the dance, but would open on the road at No. 6 Ohio State rather than getting a bye to the quarterfinals.
Assuming form held in the first round, the quarterfinals would be:
No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Indiana at the Rose Bowl
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Tennessee at the Sugar Bowl
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Ohio State at the Fiesta Bowl
No. 4 Penn State vs. No. 5 Notre Dame at the Peach Bowl
The discussions will happen at an interesting time. The 2025 season will be the final year of the CFP's original 12-year contract, which requires any changes to be unanimous. Given that, why would the ACC, Big 12 and Group of 5 leagues consent to any changes?
Precisely because the 2025 season is the last year of the contract. The format for 2026-31 (the length for the upcoming TV contract) is completely unwritten, so the Group of 8 should be inclined to play ball with the Power 2.
In the meantime, a common-sense solution is staring the FBS commissioners right in the face. Which, given the way this sport is run, makes it a 50/50 proposition whether it will be adopted.
As always, stay tuned to The Scoop for the latest.