To examine Iowa football is to exercise a study in contrasts. Is this a national championship contender held back by a worst-in-class offense? Or is it a 2-10 team propped up by a nationally elite defense?
The biggest mystery of all is this: How can the football experts in the building that spend all day, every day, with players and coaches, that know the schemes inside and out, be blind to an issue that's obvious to even the least informed layman?
That's a question only a handful of men can answer, and one of them spoke to the Cedar Rapids Gazette.
“Clearly our offense isn’t clicking right now,” Iowa AD Gary Barta told the paper.
“We know we have to get better. Kirk knows, Brian knows, student-athletes know and I’m really absolutely confident that they’re going to continue to make progress.”
The Brian mentioned above is, obviously, offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz. It's unusual for an athletics director to comment on-the-record about an assistant coach, but the arrangement at Iowa is unusual. Barta, not head coach Kirk Ferentz, is Brian Ferentz's direct supervisor, a work-around the Iowa brain trust devised to skirt the university's anti-nepotism policy.
“I observe every day, but I evaluate at the end of every year,” Barta said.
In the meantime, Iowa nearly lost a game (South Dakota State) in which its defense outscored its offense, 4-3, and then lost to rival Iowa State on a day when the Hawkeye defense surrendered 313 yards and 10 points.
Iowa is 54-20 since promoting Brian Ferentz from offensive line coach to offensive coordinator in 2017, a .730 winning percentage that represents a significant uptick from the .590 mark over a similar sample size prior to his promotion. (In fairness, Brian Ferentz joined his father's staff in 2012, so he had a hand in most of Iowa's 46-32 record from 2011-16.)
But in Iowa has surrendered 24 points or fewer in 13 of its 20 losses since 2017. Only Cal and Wyoming have lost more such games over that span, according to Sports Reference.
That number doesn't technically include last Saturday's 27-14 loss to Michigan, in which Iowa took over at its own 42 trailing 20-7 with 3:42 play. The Hawkeyes lost 14 yards in going four-and-out, and Michigan clinched the game with a 28-yard touchdown drive.
Since 2017, Iowa has never ranked higher than 86th in yards per play offense and never ranked lower than 32nd in yards per play defense.
One could argue Iowa's is (mostly) successfully playing complimentary football, that those sterling defensive numbers are artificially inflated thanks to a ball control offense, and the Ferentz's offense did rank in the top 2015 in time of possession in 2018-19, but the Hawkeyes finished 74th in 2020, 57th in '21, and sit at 113th so far this season.
So, nearly 75 games in, how much more time does Barta need to discern whether or not Iowa is putting its offensive players -- and its entire team -- in the most capable hands?
“Once we find a coach that we believe in, there are going to be ups and downs,” Barta said. “During those less successful times, just being here to help them, sticking through it and not overreacting or reacting too quickly — so far, it’s worked out well for us over the years.”