We're halfway through the 2023 season, which means it's time to take stock of the FBS head coaching class of 2021.
Hired (mostly) in the winter of 2020-21, the class of '21 has now crossed the 30-game threshold, a fair point to take stock of whether or not their respective programs should further their investment or make a painful but necessary change.
Of the 18 hires, I'd classify seven as unqualified successes, six more trending in that direction, and only two that need immediate replacement barring a late-stage turnaround.
But that's my opinion. What's yours?
BIG 12
Lance Leipold, Kansas -- 13-18 (6-15 Big 12)
The fact that Leipold is underwater both overall and in conference play but his tenure is already a smashing success tells you everything you need to know. KU has gone from the sport's biggest joke to a team absolutely no one is excited to play. Whether or not the Jayhawks manage to keep him for the long haul, Leipold has permanently transformed KU football.
Gus Malzahn, UCF -- 21-12 (11-8 conference)
A success, but not an overwhelming one. After a 3-3 start in 2021, Gus's first team won six of its final seven, including a bowl win over Florida. The 2022 team pulled the opposite trick: starting 8-2 and rising to No. 20 in the AP before dropping three of their final four. UCF was universally pegged as the newcomer most likely to compete immediately in the Big 12, but the Knights are off to an 0-3 conference start, allowing nearly 44 points per game in doing so, while gagging away a 28-point lead, at home, to Baylor.
Steve Sarkisian, Texas -- 18-13 (11-10 Big 12)
Sark was hired to take a Top 20 program under Tom Herman back into the Top 5, and if one or two things go differently Saturday, Texas is (in my opinion) the clear-cut No. 1 team in the country today. The SEC move was announced ahead of his first season, and the initial consensus was that OU was going to win and Texas was going to make money. One 34-24 win at Bryant-Denny Stadium later, no one's saying that. In a down Big 12, Sarkisian needs to forge a rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, at the very minimum, to show necessary progress in Year 3.
BIG TEN
Bret Bielema, Illinois -- 15-16 (9-12 Big Ten)
Bert brought instant credibility to a downtrodden program, and bolstered that outlook when he beat Scott Frost's Nebraska in Week 0 of his debut season. Sure, he dropped his next four, but the Illini finished a respectable 5-7 in Year 1. Year 2 was a major step forward: eight wins, a game out of the B1G championship, and four straight weeks in the AP Top 25. However, defensive coordinator Ryan Walters got the Purdue job, and today Illinois is 2-4 overall, 0-3 in Big Ten play, and last in the conference in points and yards allowed.
MAC
Tim Albin, Ohio -- 18-14 (12-6 MAC)
Albin assisted Frank Solich for 16 seasons before taking over upon his retirement. Keeping the job in the family initially looked like a well-intentioned disaster after Albin's 3-9 debut, but now it looks like a genius move. Ohio is 15-5 since the start of last season, and 9-2 in MAC play. The current team is 5-1 and their Oct. 28 Battle of the Bricks game with Miami (Ohio) will likely decide the MAC East.
Maurice Linguist, Buffalo -- 13-18 (9-9 MAC)
Buffalo made the then-37-year-old Linguist a first-time head coach in the late spring of 2021 when it hired him away from the Dallas Cowboys and the results have been... okay. Buffalo went 4-8 in 2021, 7-6 in 2022, and now stand at 2-4 this season, but 2-0 in MAC play. The Bulls allowed 45 points per game during an 0-4 non-conference swing (including a home loss to Fordham) but have permitted just 23 points total during two MAC wins thus far.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Andy Avalos, Boise State -- 20-12 (15-4 MW)
Avalos has continued Boise State's trajectory where the Broncos are still a good bet to win their Mountain West game any given Saturday, but the mystique of being the Notre Dame of the Group of 5 has long faded. As evidence, Avalos is 15-4 in Mountain West play, which means he's 5-7 elsewhere. Last year saw the Broncos lose to Oregon State and BYU (forgivable) and UTEP (less so). Boise State also lost the MW Championship, at home, to Fresno State. This year, Boise was blown out by Washington, and then lost at home to UCF and on the road to Memphis. Those losses can be forgiven with the program's first MW title since 2019, but the Broncos are just one among a gaggle of teams with legitimate conference title hopes, so don't write the Broncos' name in blue ink just yet. Stay tuned.
Blake Anderson, Utah State -- 20-13 (13-6 MW)
How Anderson continues coaching amid multiple personal tragedies is remarkable. His first team won the MW championship and earned just the fourth year-end AP Top 25 ranking in program history. Last year's team dipped to 6-7, and this year's is 3-3 overall and 1-1 in MW play. It's Utah State. No need to overthink this one.
PAC-12
Jake Dickert, Washington State -- 14-10 (8-7 Pac-12)
Dickert took the least conventional path to this list, a mid-season interim after Nick Rolovich was fired for not complying with the state's COVID vaccination policy. Wazzu named Dickert the full-time coach after leading the Cougars to their first Apple Cup victory in nearly a decade, then lost the Sun Bowl to Central Michigan in his next outing. Washington State went a ho-hum 7-6 in 2022, and then the world crumbled around Dickert's, and Washington State's, feet.
Dickert has become something of a voice of the resistance in protesting Wazzu being tossed aside the Big-Time College Football Machine, and he could also become a part of it -- a 4-1 start has gotten Dickert's name mentioned as a candidate for the Michigan State opening and is expected to be considered for other openings as well.
Jedd Fisch, Arizona -- 9-21 (5-16 Pac-12)
Something of a Lance Leipold Out West, Fisch took over a deader-than-dead program and brought with him the necessary level of energy and vision. A 1-11 debut was followed by a 5-7 Year 2, and that progress needs to continue with a bowl trip this winter. That will require some upsets in the most difficult conference in the country: at 3-3, Arizona's next five opponents will all likely be bowl teams before closing with Arizona State's bowl game, the Territorial Cup game in Tempe. In six years as Arizona's head coach Rich Rod won 10 games once, eight twice and seven twice. If three years in and Fisch's teams have won a total of 12 games, does that continue to sell tickets?
SEC
Shane Beamer, South Carolina -- 17-14 (8-11 SEC)
Beamer is in many ways the picture-perfect modern day coach: he embraces the transfer portal and relates extremely well to players. He also brought one of the highest 2-week runs in Gamecock history in securing back-to-back wins over No. 5 Tennessee and No. 8 Clemson. Problem is: he's barely over .500 overall and under water in the SEC. Ten years ago Steve Spurrier won 11 games three years in a row at South Carolina. If this version is going to be life at South Carolina under Beamer where the new 16-team, division-less format that will bring more frequent games with Alabama, LSU, Texas and Oklahoma is that ok?
Josh Heupel, Tennessee -- 22-9 (11-7 SEC)
A somewhat controversial hire given that AD Danny White pilfered him from his own former school, I pegged Heupel as a classic high floor/low ceiling hire: his offenses would allow Tennessee to compete instantly, but the Vols would never play good enough defense to seriously contend. I was wrong. The 2022 campaign was Tennessee's best of the 21st century, snapping the decade-and-a-half losing streak to Alabama in what will stand as one of the best games of the decade, and then hammering Clemson in the Orange Bowl. This year's loss to Florida was disappointing, and the Vols will likely have to sweep Alabama and Georgia to make it back to Atlanta, but Heupel is clearly better than each of his four predecessors.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt -- 9-22 (2-17 SEC)
Lea once said it was only a matter of time until Vanderbilt became the best program in college football. So far it's been the same old Vanderbilt. It would take an upset for the 2023 Commodores to avoid ending their season on a 10-game losing streak. Ten years ago James Franklin won nine games back to back at Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt extended Lea after winning seven games in his first two seasons.
SUN BELT
Terry Bowden, ULM -- 10-19 (5-13 Sun Belt)
At 67 years old, nearly 40 years removed from his first head coaching job, you have to admire Bowden's desire to continue plugging away at one of the most difficult gigs in FBS. The Warhawks have one bowl appearance in history -- a 31-point loss, at that. If a deep conversation about ULM's future is to be had, it should be about whether the university belongs in the Sun Belt or the Southland.
Will Hall, Southern Miss -- 11-20 (6-13 conference)
No such conversations should take place at Southern Miss, a program that reached 14 bowl games from 1997 through 2011, and won Conference USA (back when it included Houston and UCF) in '11. Hall reached the Division II playoffs four times in six seasons, but it hasn't worked at the FBS level yet. The current Golden Eagles outfit, losers of five straight as you read this, has accomplished the "neat" trick of losing games 44-37 and 17-13. Assuming a loss at Mississippi State on Nov. 18, USM will need to sweep the rest of its Sun Belt games to return to a bowl game.
Charles Huff, Marshall -- 20-11 (11-6 conference)
Huff's tenure has reached the point where the administration and fan base are praying the Herd can cash in with a conference championship before he leaves. The 40-year-old former Nick Saban assistant has already delivered a win at Notre Dame and a bowl victory, but a Sun Belt title from the difficult East Division -- it's early, but six of the seven East teams are .500 or better in conference play -- would be a capstone accomplishment for Huff.
Butch Jones, Arkansas State -- 8-22 (3-15 Sun Belt)
The record says it all, does it not? The 2021 Red Wolves were one of the worst rushing offense and defense teams in America. The 2022 team was marginally better, and as such their win total increased by 50 percent -- from two to three. The 2023 team is already 3-3 overall and 1-1 in SBC play, and so it's still possible A-State can continue to show year-to-year improvement. (Their next two games are Coastal Carolina and ULM, two possible wins.) But this program has undoubtedly taken a marked step back from nine straight bowl trips from 2011-19.
Kane Wommack, South Alabama -- 18-13 (10-8 Sun Belt)
The 36-year-old Wommack led the Jaguars to their first SBC title game last season. The current team beat Oklahoma State by 26 in their own building (and then lost to Central Michigan in their own building) and will contend for a second straight Sun Belt West title down the stretch of this season. The Nov. 2 trip to Troy looms large.