It's practically November in college football, which means conference championship races are coming into view, even if the picture isn't yet clear.
This is always a fun time in God's Favorite Sport, but especially so now, for two reasons. First, conference championship berths come with very real stakes. As you may have heard, we've moved from a playoff system with four at-large berths to a 12-team bracket with guaranteed berths for the five highest-rated conference championships. At the same time, conferences have also consolidated -- not only in who's in what league, but in how they organize themselves. The only conferences playing anything close to a round-robin schedule are Conference USA and the Sun Belt.
In short, conference championships have never meant more, and never been harder to obtain.
As November progresses, we'll dive as deep as it takes to spell out in chapter and verse what has to happen for Team X to earn Title Berth Y, but with millions of possibilities still on the table we'll start with a surface-level view of each FBS league.
American
No. 21 Army -- 6-0
Navy -- 6-0
Tulane -- 4-0
Memphis -- 3-1
Disaster potential: Low. As we're all acutely aware by now, Army and Navy play each other in a conference game that does not count toward the conference standings. This quirk is a huge advantage in that both Army and Navy get to miss each other; imagine the last three seasons Michigan and Ohio State not playing in the regular season. Navy already defeated Memphis and hosts Tulane on Nov. 16. In its first year in the conference, Army is the safest bet of any team to reach its conference championship. The Black Knights' only remaining AAC games are at North Texas (Nov. 9) and home against UTSA (Nov. 30).
ACC
No. 11 Clemson -- 5-0
No. 5 Miami -- 4-0
No. 20 SMU -- 4-0
No. 18 Pitt -- 4-0
Virginia Tech -- 3-1
Disaster potential: High. For simplicity's sake, the ACC has to hope Pitt beats SMU on Saturday, simply because Pitt hosts Clemson on Nov. 16. If the Mustangs win, look out:
SMU's remaining schedule: vs. Boston College (1-3 in ACC play, at Virginia (2-3), vs. Cal (0-4)
Miami: vs. Duke (2-2), at Georgia Tech (3-3), vs. Wake Forest (2-2), at Syracuse (2-2)
Clemson: vs. Louisville (3-2), at Virginia Tech (3-1), at Pitt (3-0)
An undefeated Pitt leaves the possibility of only two 8-0 ACC teams. A defeated Pitt invites a scenario of three 8-0 squads, at which point the tiebreaker would be determined by the two highest combined win percentage of conference opponents. At this point it's anyone's guess who that favors.
Big 12
No. 9 BYU -- 5-0
No. 11 Iowa State -- 4-0
No. 17 Kansas State -- 4-1
No. 23 Colorado -- 4-1
Disaster potential: Low. BYU's four remaining opponents are a combined 5-13 in Big 12 play, though this week's Holy War won't be easy. Iowa State hosts K-State in the Farmegeddon To End All Farmageddons on Nov. 30. K-State lost to BYU, and Colorado lost to K-State.
Big Ten
No. 13 Indiana -- 5-0
No. 1 Oregon -- 5-0
No. 3 Penn State -- 4-0
No. 4 Ohio State -- 3-1
Disaster potential: Mild. With games at Penn State (Saturday) and versus Indiana (Nov. 23), Ohio State is our chaos candidate here. Indiana, Oregon and Penn State do not play each other, so in the unlikely-but-still-possible chance that all three finish 9-0, the tiebreaker would come down to the two highest cumulative conference winning percentage of each teams' nine opponents. In that case, Indiana -- who played or plays 1-4 UCLA, 1-4 Maryland, 1-4 Northwestern, 2-3 Nebraska, 2-3 Washington, 2-3 Michigan State and 0-4 Purdue -- is likely the odd team out.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky -- 3-0
Jacksonville State -- 3-0
Liberty -- 3-1
Sam Houston -- 3-1
Disaster potential: Very low. As a 10-team conference with eight league games, C-USA teams miss only one league opponent, a stark contrast to the ACC and Big Ten, where they miss eight. WKU closes with Liberty and Jacksonville State, and Jax State faces all three other teams at the top of the table. WKU beat SHSU already this season, while Liberty had the foresight to lose to winless Kennesaw State, so the defending champ Flames can still win their way in with upcoming games against SHSU, Liberty and JSU.
MAC
Western Michigan -- 4-0
Miami -- 3-1
Ohio -- 3-1
Bowling Green -- 3-1
Disaster potential: Low. Western Michigan is in the clear pole position to make it to Detroit; the Broncos play only Bowling Green among their serious challengers. Miami is also in a good spot; Chuck Martin's team has already defeated Ohio and closes at Bowling Green. Ohio, who's good seemingly every year yet somehow hasn't won the MAC since 1968, needs serious help with its loss to Miami and no opportunities to face WMU and BGSU.
Mountain West
No. 15 Boise State -- 3-0
Colorado State -- 3-0
San Diego State -- 2-0
Fresno State -- 3-1
UNLV -- 2-1
Disaster potential: Very low. Boise hosts San Diego State on Friday. Win that and the Broncos can coast into their seventh MW Championship in eight years. Colorado State also got a favorable draw: Jay Norvell's team does not face Boise State, San Diego State, or UNLV.
SEC
No. 10 Texas A&M -- 5-0
No. 2 Georgia -- 4-1
No. 7 Tennessee -- 3-1
No. 6 Texas -- 3-1
No. 16 LSU -- 3-1
Disaster potential: It Just Means More. Georgia hosts Tennessee on Nov. 30 and Texas closes its season at Kyle Field, so the opportunity for a neat-and-tidy top two is there. Then again, a whopping six teams are 3-2 or 2-2, putting 11 teams within a game in the loss column of at least reaching Atlanta. Halfway into the year, the top and bottom of the SEC have rarely seemed closer.
This summer, the SEC released a 22-page tiebreaker handbook. Here's Page 9:
Clear as mud, right?
Sun Belt
Disaster potential: Zero. As a 14-team conference, the Sun Belt ingeniously split into two 7-team divisions where each division plays a round-robin, whereby the winners will meet in the conference championship game.