The FBS head coaching hiring class of 2022 was big. Not necessarily in terms of numbers -- 25, 24 still in place -- but in terms of the swings made and dollars committed. LSU, Miami, USC, TCU and Colorado State all swiped head coaches away from peer programs.
The class of '22 now heads into the stretch run of their third seasons, a critical junction for most of them.
Far be it for us to render a verdict on 30-ish games and more than 1,000 days of toil from a keyboard at home but, well, if the shoe fits...
AMERICAN
Stan Drayton, Temple (8-24, 3-17 AAC)
The record pretty much says it all. The Owls will have to pull off an upset down the stretch to record Drayton's third 3-9 season in as many tries. Temple is not an easy place to win, but Steve Addazio, Matt Rhule and Geoff Collins all left West Philadelphia with winning records.
Verdict: This isn't working.
ACC
Mario Cristobal, Miami (21-13, 11-10 ACC)Mario has his strength and weaknesses, and both have been apparent now nearly 35 games in. Losing the Georgia Tech game last season was absolute coaching malpractice, Cristobal's upside is so much bigger than his downside. He proved at Oregon he knows how to build a team, and brought that knowledge home with him.
Verdict: Right on schedule.
Tony Elliott, Virginia (10-20, 5-15 ACC)First and foremost, Elliott admirably led the program through the shocking and senseless murders of Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr, and D'Sean Perry, two years ago next week, which ended his debut season two games short. This season has seen the Cavaliers grow from three wins to four, but UVA will be underdogs in each of its final four games -- inviting the possibility of ending Year 3 on a 7-game losing streak.
Verdict: 2025 will be huge.
Brent Key, Georgia Tech (16-14, 12-9 ACC)
A former Yellow Jacket himself, being the head coach at Georgia Tech means something to Key. That counts for a lot. He's given the program a clear identity in a market where it's easy to get lost, which also counts for a lot. You don't land the commitment of a 5-star offensive tackle without significant buy-in from the two most important constituencies for any college football coach: recruits and the money people.
Verdict: Stay the course.
Rhett Lashlee, SMU (26-10, 18-3 conference)
When you've spent $200 million to buy your way into relevance, can you afford to not pay the coach who's turned your dreams into reality? Lashlee has improved upon Sonny Dykes's success by building through the portal to construct a complete team that throws the ball, but also runs the ball and stops the run. In another era, SMU would be bracing to lose him to a bigger program. What happens now?
Verdict: Extension time.
Brent Pry, Virginia Tech (15-18, 9-11 ACC)
Two decades ago, Virginia Tech was the ACC's crown jewel. Now, the Hokies are just another ACC team. That's a problem bigger than Brent Pry, but it's also one Pry hasn't fixed. One wonders where Va Tech might be if they'd hung on to the Vanderbilt (OT loss), Miami and Syracuse (OT loss) games.
Verdict: What is Virginia Tech football in 2024?
BIG 12
Sonny Dykes, TCU (23-12, 15-8 Big 12)
When he got the job, Sonny Dykes owned a .529 career winning percentage across 11 seasons at Louisiana Tech, Cal, and SMU. He memorably won his first 12 games as a Horned Frog, but in the two seasons since TCU is 11-14. That's what statisticians call a reversion to the mean. This year's team has lost to SMU, Baylor and Houston; that's not good for a program that can credibly argue it's best-positioned for success in the new Big 12.
Verdict: It's time to see some consistent football.
Joey McGuire, Texas Tech (21-14, 14-10 Big 12)
McGuire memorably claimed the Big 12 "runs through Lubbock" after beating Texas in his first conference game, but thus far that hasn't proven true. McGuire arrived with the most institutional support a Tech coach has ever had, but so far the results have fallen in line with Tech's historical mean -- 7-to-8 wins consistently, but not much more. Saturday's game with Colorado looms as the biggest of McGuire's career; win that and the Red Raiders likely finish 9-3 and have an outside shot at a conference title.
Verdict: No reason for panic, but no cause for celebration, either.
BIG TEN
Dan Lanning, Oregon (31-5, 21-3 conference)
The record and No. 1 ranking says it all. He's been everything Oregon hoped and more. And he's 38 years old.
Verdict: Self-explanatory.
Lincoln Riley, USC (23-13, 15-10 conference)
It feels worse than the record, doesn't it? Riley is 12-12 in his last 24 games, 6-10 in his last 16, and 2-5 in his last seven. USC has been achingly close in a number of those losses, but that now feels more like an indictment of Riley than a compliment to him. After starting out well ahead, Riley is now behind Clay Helton's pace, and at a much higher price.
Verdict: USC is pulling hard for Riley to figure out, because the alternative is not cheap.
CONFERENCE USA
Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech (9-23, 6-15 C-USA)
After opening with two straight 3-9 seasons, losing four close games (OT to Tulsa, 2OT to New Mexico State, 9-3 to Sam Houston, 17-10 to FIU) stings, especially as the Bulldogs stand as underdogs in their next three games. Thus far, La Tech's wins have come over FCS Nicholls, 3-6 Middle Tennessee, and 1-8 UTEP.
Verdict: 2025 will be huge.
Mike MacIntyre, FIU (11-22, 5-16 C-USA)
MacIntyre is roughly in line with FIU's historical performance. So, yeah. The only thing I can tell you about FIU's on-field football product so far is that those Miami Vice uniforms are sick.
Verdict: There are bigger problems here, and MacIntyre doesn't seem to be a cause of or an answer to any of them. Save us, Pitbull!
Rich Rodriguez, Jacksonville State (23-9, 15-2 conference)
Rich Rod is a Professional Ball Coach doing Professional Ball Coach things. Messy circumstances brought him to Jacksonville, but those messy circumstances might deliver two conference titles in three seasons.
Verdict: Best case scenario.
INDEPENDENTS
Don Brown, UMass (6-27)
Brown accomplished meaningful things in his first tenure, but today he's a 69-year-old head coach with a winning percentage below .200.
Verdict: This isn't working.
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame (26-9)
It feels like every other game is the biggest of Freeman's career. That's because of the unique nature that led him to the job -- 36 years old, no head coaching experience -- after just one season in the program. Freeman has recruited well and is respected throughout the program, but thus far the biggest moments of his tenure were putting 10 men on the field against Ohio State and losing to Marshall and NIU. Huskies loss aside, this year's team is playing good football and in position to make the CFP.
Verdict: Cautious optimism.
Jim Mora, UConn (15-19)
Mora reached a bowl game in Year 1, slunk to 3-9 last season, but now has the Huskies at 6-3 with a great shot at two more wins before another bowl game. That feels like best case scenario at a program that was lost without a paddle when he arrived.
Verdict: Right on schedule.
MAC
Joe Moorhead, Akron (6-27, 3-18 MAC)
The last coach to leave Akron with a winning record did so in 1985. JD Brookhart won a MAC Coach of the Year award for leading the Zips to a 6-5 season. In retrospect, Terry Bowden deserves a statue for leading this program to an 8-5 mark and a bowl win in 2015.
Verdict: Moorhead isn't the cause of, or solution to, Akron's problems.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Timmy Chang, Hawaii (12-23, 7-15 MW)
Similar to Georgia Tech, having an alum as a head coach means something at a program that can so easily be, well, a small dot in a large ocean. The Rainbow Warriors went from three wins in 2022, to five in '23, and now sit at 4-5 with a good shot at 6-6. That's progress.
Verdict: Right on schedule.
Jay Norvell, Colorado State (14-19, 10-10 MW)
Norvell's tenure is best known nationally for picking an unwinnable fight with Coach Prime and making dubious claims about supposed NIL offers to his players. On the field, though, CSU has gone from three wins to five and now stands at 6-3 with a chance to play for a conference championship with three more victories over beatable teams.
Verdict: Right on schedule.
Ken Wilson, Nevada (4-20, 2-14 MW)
Wilson was let go following two seasons on the job.
Verdict: Rendered.
SEC
Brian Kelly, LSU (26-9, 15-5 SEC)
Those praying for Kelly's demise have seen those requests go unanswered, but at the same time, a program that won or played for championships under Les Miles and Ed Orgeron still seems a rung below the national elite. Kelly's tenure has been loud in ways good and bad, but it's also tracked right along with most realistic expectations.
Verdict: Far from the worst case scenario, but not the best, either. Big game looming.
Billy Napier, Florida (15-18, 8-13 SEC)
Many left Napier for dead before this season even began, but that was news to Florida. The Gators have played respectable football this season, all things considered. At the same time, they're overwhelmingly likely to finish below .500 in all three of his seasons to date. The injuries to quarterbacks Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway might help Napier's job security, all things considered.
Verdict: It's not where Florida expected to be, but does moving on cause more harm than good?
Brent Venables, Oklahoma (21-14, 11-12 conference)
Defensively, Oklahoma looks like it expected to look when Venables returned to Norman. Offensively, OU looks like... a mess. Joe Jon Finley has stabalized that side of the ball enough to prevent the worst case scenario, but the new OC hire will be the biggest of Coach V's career.
Verdict: 2025 will be huge.
SUN BELT
Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana (20-15, 11-9 Sun Belt)
After opening with two 6-6 seasons punctuated by bowl defeats, the Cajuns are 7-1 and on track to play for a conference title, but games against their biggest challengers (Arkansas State, South Alabama, ULM) loom. This campaign can be a massive leap forward, or it can merely be a small step in the right direction.
Verdict: So far so good, but three big games loom.
Clay Helton, Georgia Southern (18-17, 10-11 Sun Belt)
Ending here feels fitting, does it not? Helton was the first hire of this cycle; USC fired him two games in 2021, and Georgia Southern hired him just seven weeks later. You think he looks West and envies Lincoln Riley's position at all? Identical to Desormeaux at UL, Helton went 6-6 with bowl losses in 2022 and '23 but now has Georgia Southern in first in the Sun Belt East.
Verdict: Right on schedule.