It's conference championship weekend in FBS, which means the stakes are self-explanatory: (almost) every team hitting the gridiron plays for a conference championship. But it's more than that. What happens this weekend will echo long beyond the expiration of the final horn.
For starters, this weekend's events will determine where teams play in late December and January. But it's even more than that. Twelve of the coaches competing this weekend have never won a conference title at their current school. This weekend's games color not only what happens moving forward, but moving backward as well -- for 99.9 percent of schools, a conference championship on its own defines a season as successful. This weekend determines whether or not "2022" gets plastered on stadium facades and within the walls of the football building. Decades from now, long after the players and coaches have moved on, the next 60 minutes will determined whether or not this entire season is remembered.
So now that we've mixed in some existential dread to our football cocktail, let's get started.
Before we get to the conference title game, we've got two regular season loose ends to tie up.
-- Akron at Buffalo (noon ET Friday, ESPN+): This game was originally slated for Nov. 19, but pushed back due to the epic snowstorm that hit Western New York. Buffalo needs a win to reach its fourth bowl game in five seasons, and its first in two seasons under Maurice Linguist.
-- Valparaiso at New Mexico State (2 p.m. ET): Jerry Kill joked earlier this week that it's the first time in college football history no one wants to play New Mexico State. NMSU was originally scheduled to face San Jose State on Oct. 22, but that game was postponed due to the death of Spartan freshman Camdan McWright. SJSU, at 7-4 on the season, opted not to reschedule the game, which left the Aggies scrambling.
At 5-6, the Aggies already have one win over an FCS opponent (51-14 over Lamar on Nov. 12). NCAA rules only allow teams to count one win over FCS foes toward bowl eligibility, and Valpo would be their second. New Mexico State plans to appeal to the NCAA and, considering bowl prognosticators currently project at least one 5-7 team to fill the 82 bowl slots, NMSU should absolutely be granted an exception with a win on Saturday.
And now to the conference title games.
Conference USA: North Texas at UTSA (7:30 p.m. ET Friday, CBS Sports Network)
For UTSA: Let's start here: the only two FBS teams playing to defend their conference title are the No. 2-ranked Michigan Wolverines, the No. 11 Utah Utes, and the Roadrunners of UTSA. A win here makes UTSA the third team in C-USA history to post a 9-0 conference record, and two more wins should make UTSA the first C-USA team since 2015 Western Kentucky to finish in the AP Top 25. Either UTSA loses its final C-USA game, or it peaces out of the conference on a 10-game winning streak.
UTSA and UNT will carry their rivalry into the American next season, but a Roadrunner win pushes the all-time ledger 6-5 in their favor with a 3-1 record under Jeff Traylor.
For North Texas: It's now or never for the Mean Green. UNT joins the American next season, its ninth conference home since originally joining the Texas Intercollegiate Athletic Association one hundred years ago. The Mean Green never won the Big West in their five seasons in the league, but they did win at least one crown in their other six conference homes. And so now, in the final game of their 10th and final season in Conference USA, this is their last shot to win it.
UNT played for the C-USA title in 2017, but was blown out by a juggernaut Lane Kiffin-led FAU team. That may very well be their fate on Friday night; UTSA is 22-4 over its last two seasons, but within those 26 games are a blowout loss last season in Denton and a skin-of-their-teeth win in the Alamodome earlier this season.
At 7-5, a wide delta of possibilities still exist for Littrell's team. They could be the only Mean Green outfit to win a Conference USA championship, or they could find themselves 7-7 by Christmas break.
Pac-12: No. 11 Utah vs. No. 4 USC at Las Vegas's Allegiant Stadium (8 p.m. ET Friday, Fox)
For USC: The Pac-12 has long coveted the attention of Big Ten and SEC fans, and now they'e got it. If USC wins, it's in, period. If not, well... no 2-loss team has ever made the CFP, and it's hard to imagine the committee making an exception for a 2-loss non-conference champion that lost twice to the same team.
A win gives USC its 40th conference championship, and a shot at its 12th claimed national title. For Lincoln Riley, it'd be five conference championship in six seasons as a head coach, with four CFP trips in six tries.
Furthermore, a USC victory -- no matter what happens moving forward -- would set the standard for Portal Era first-year turnarounds. USC would become the cardinal-and-gold stick by which every other first-year staff is measured.
For Utah: Utah will not reach the College Football Playoff, but a second consecutive Pac-12 championship and a second consecutive Rose Bowl berth would still be a capstone accomplishment for a program that's spent 90 percent of its history out of a power conference.
And if there's a team and a coach that I'd least like to face in a win-and-in situation, especially if I'd already lost to that team once this season, its probably Utah and Kyle Whittingham:
"Well, you know pretty much everyone's got them winning already and going to the playoffs and Caleb winning the Heisman and you know that's already kind of been talked about," Whittingham said this week. "So, we love that role. We love the chip on her shoulder, nobody giving us a chance and we seem to thrive in that capacity."
Bring your best game to Vegas, Trojans. You're going to need that and then some.
Big 12: No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 3 TCU at Arlington's AT&T Stadium (noon ET, ABC)
For Kansas State: In terms of their postseason destination, this game means nothing. Win, and the Wildcats go to the Sugar Bowl as Big 12 champions. Lose, and TCU goes to the Playoff, so K-State replaces TCU in the Big 12's Sugar Bowl slot. But let's refer above to the bit about stadium facades. K-State has six all-time conference championships, and four of them pre-date World War II.
For TCU: Everyone assumes TCU's CFP bid is secure, but what if it's not? What if USC beats Utah on Friday, but the Frogs lose 31-10 to K-State? Are we sure the committee wouldn't swap Ohio State for TCU, after they did the exact same thing on Selection Sunday in 2014? (For the record, I simply do not believe Alabama can pass TCU at this juncture.)
Win, and TCU is 100 percent in the Playoff, no doubt about it.
But what if TCU loses ugly?
-- K-State would go to the Sugar Bowl as the Big 12 champion, and TCU, if it falls out of the Playoff, would go to the Cotton Bowl.
-- Which means TCU does not get a bowl trip, since the Cotton Bowl is a 30-mile drive down Interstate 30.
-- Which means instead of playing Michigan (or maybe Georgia), TCU plays Tulane or UCF. No offense to Tulane or UCF.
-- Which means TCU will return back to the place where they'd just suffered the most devastating loss in program history, at a stadium where their fans can visit any time.
Imagine your parents taking you to a park to tell you they're getting divorced, then holding your birthday party at that same park a month later.
To be clear, I don't believe the above is a realistic scenario. Win or lose, TCU has already defeated everyone on its schedule. A loss actually helps the Frogs' resume in a twisted way, since their best win would be over a, say, No. 8 K-State. But we've all seen the Buckeyes jump the Frogs just before the finish line before.
On the positive side, TCU seeks to become the first team in Big 12 history to go 10-0 since the conference went to a round-robin schedule plus a championship game in 2017. Collectively, that's 60 individual seasons, and TCU would be the only team to pull it off, against a deepest Big 12 roster the conference has ever produced.
Everyone's talking about the remote possibility of TCU falling to No. 5, but what if Georgia and Michigan both lose on Saturday? Why wouldn't this Frogs team be No. 1?
MAC: Toledo vs. Ohio at Detroit's Ford Field (noon ET, ESPN)
For Toledo: Toledo owns 11 MAC championships, most recently in 2017 under current head coach Jason Candle. Only Tom Amstutz and Frank Lauterbur have led the Rockets to multiple MAC championships, so Candle has the opportunity to do something Gary Pinkell, Matt Campbell and others never did. If Toledo loses, though, the local paper wondered aloud if Candle will still have a job when the dust settles.
For Ohio: It's hard to imagine a conference championship meaning more to any team than a MAC title would to Ohio. The Bobcats won the MAC in 1953 and then four times in the 1960s... and not once since.
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina at Troy (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
For Coastal: Did you know that Coastal has never actually won the Sun Belt championship game? In 2020, 11-0 Coastal was set to play 9-1 Louisiana (whose only loss came 30-27 to Coastal earlier in the year) in the most anticipated Sun Belt Championship ever, but covid canceled the game. Last year, the Chanticleers went 11-2 but tied for second in the Sun Belt East.
Jamey Chadwell is 31-5 with an AP Top 15 finish over the past three seasons, but this incredible run will feel incomplete without a Sun Belt championship trophy.
For Troy: Lincoln Riley, Sonny Dykes and Brian Kelly can all win conference titles as first-year head coaches, but each of those guys have been head coaches before. Jon Sumrall is the only rookie head coach looking to win his conference, in what would be Troy's first outright Sun Belt title since 2009.
SEC: No. 14 LSU vs. No. 1 Georgia at Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium (4 p.m. ET, CBS)
For LSU: Remember Brian Kelly's first game at LSU, an absolute mess of a loss to Florida Sate at the Superdome? Win here, and the Tigers close their season back at the Superdome as SEC champions.
Kelly would become the fourth consecutive full-time LSU head coach to win the SEC, a streak that began with Nick Saban. But Saban didn't get SEC title No. 1 until Year 2. With a win he'd become the first coach since Gus Malzahn to win the SEC as an SEC rookie. He'd also join a club currently occupied only by Gus and Ed Orgeron in defeating Saban and Kirby Smart in the same season.
And they told me this league was supposed to be hard, Kelly tells himself as he leaves the field.
For Georgia: Kirby Smart is 70-10 over the last six seasons, but only 1-3 in SEC title games. Beyond looking to add a 14th SEC championship to the mantle, there's real world stakes here.
A win sends Georgia back to Atlanta for a Peach Bowl semifinal, while a loss asks the Dawgs fan base to travel to a Fiesta Bowl semifinal and then (presumably) back to the West Coast for the national championship at LA's SoFi Stadium.
American: No. 22 UCF at No. 18 Tulane (4 p.m. ET, ABC)
For UCF: Like UTSA and North Texas, UCF looks to win a conference it's in the process of leaving. A win gives UCF a share of four American titles in the conference's 10-year history, breaking a tie with Cincinnati.
A victory also sends UCF to its third New Year's Six game, a club currently occupied by only 16 other schools.
For Tulane: Even the undefeated 1998 Green Wave team "only" played in the Liberty Bowl. The program's first conference title since 1998 (and second since leaving the SEC in the 1960s) sends Tulane to the Cotton Bowl, the fourth New Year's Day bowl in program history and the first since 1939.
Mountain West: Fresno State at Boise State (4 p.m. ET, Fox)
If it feels like this is the MW Championship matchup every other year, well, you're not wrong. This is the 10th MW title game, and the fourth Fresno-Boise matchup, although the first since 2018.
All four games were/are in Boise, and the home team carries a 2-1 lead.
In all, this is Boise's sixth MW Championship and Fresno's fifth; no other school has made it more than three times.
For Fresno: Well, for starters, Fresno State is 7-17 against Boise State all-time, and 4-17 since 2001. This is the one game where beating the opponent matters as much as more than the reward for doing so.
A win brings the 29th conference championship in program history and the third in Jeff Tedford's 15-year head coaching career.
For Boise: Boise State has won 14 conference championships since 1999 -- roughly two out of every three seasons -- but none since 2019. The longest title gaps in that span is two years: 2015-16... and 2020-21. In case you're not picking up what I'm putting down: if Boise doesn't win this game, the program opens 2023 with its longest conference championship drought of the 21st century.
No pressure, Andy Avalos.
Big Ten: Purdue vs. No. 2 Michigan at Indianapolis's Lucas Oil Stadium (8 p.m. ET, Fox)
For Michigan: To the best of my knowledge, the list of Power 5 teams to go 10-0 in conference play consists of 2019 Ohio State, 2020 Alabama... and that's it. TCU can join that list Saturday morning, and Michigan can do the same with a win here. The Wolverines can lose this game 59-0 and still advance to the Playoff, but a win and a Georgia loss sends them to Atlanta as the No. 1 overall seed.
Furthermore, this is an opportunity to claim the program's 18th outright conference championship and its first back-to-back Big Ten titles since 2003-04.
For Purdue: Purdue last won the Big Ten in 2000 and last won an outright Big Ten championship in 1929. A win sends the Boilers to the Rose Bowl for the third time ever.
It's also an opportunity to burnish the program's reputation as a giant slayer.
8-4 Purdue watching us game out Penn State-Ohio State Rose Bowl scenarios pic.twitter.com/tLWualQyeC
— Matt Brown (@MattBrownCFB) November 30, 2022
This is Purdue's first Big Ten Championship appearance. The game is an hour and change from campus. Lucas Oil should be packed to the rafters with Boilermakers.
ACC: No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 23 North Carolina at Charlotte's Bank of America Stadium (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
The stakes are clear, if relatively low. The winner hosts the ACC championship trophy (duh) and advances directly to the Orange Bowl. The loser likely goes to a Gator Bowl to play 7-5 Kentucky, spending the offseason pondering a season that failed to meet expectations.
Either UNC sees a 9-1 start melt into a 9-4 finish, or Clemson sees its 8-0 start devolve into its second straight 10-3 season and its second straight ACC title-free season.
North Carolina only has nine all-time conference championships and five ACC crowns, last won in 1980, so a conference championship and an Orange Bowl berth would be a big deal in Chapel Hill.
Clemson, meanwhile, seeks its 21st ACC crown and its seventh in the last eight seasons.
Best Is (Or Used To Be) The Standard in Clemson, but it's hard to be disappointed in a season that gets added to your media guide, your facility walls, and your program's Wikipedia page until the end of time.
A College Football Playoff berth is great, but a conference title is big deal on its own, too.