It's November (basically). The first College Football Playoff rankings are unveiled Tuesday night, and history tells us 13 teams are still in the hunt for the four bids: the 13 undefeated or 1-loss Power 5 teams. History also tells us those 13 teams are split into two tiers -- theoretically involved (TCU, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Illinois, North Carolina, Ole Miss) and actually involved (Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee). Quibble with the two groups all you like, we'll see where everyone stands once the committee weighs in on Tuesday night.
Regardless, we're all taking Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State over the field to win the national title, but that's not why we're here.
Only a handful of teams start each FBS season with a realistic shot of winning the national title, but all 131 strive to win their conference. As the season hits its final month, I count more than 50 teams that have a realistic or semi-realistic chance of doing just that.
American
Tulane -- 4-0
UCF -- 3-1
Cincinnati -- 3-1
Houston -- 3-1
East Carolina -- 3-2
SMU -- 2-2
Tulane is alone in first place, but the Green Wave still have UCF, SMU and Cincinnati ahead. SMU still has Houston ahead in addition to Tulane, while East Carolina owns a win over UCF and has future opportunities to leap frog Cincinnati and Houston.
ACC
Atlantic
Clemson -- 6-0
Clemson is one win or one Syracuse loss away from its seventh ACC championship game in eight years and the ninth of the Dabo Swinney era.
Coastal
North Carolina -- 4-0
Mack Brown's team needs two victories, or one win and one loss by Duke, Miami and Georgia Tech, to clinch its second Coastal championship.
Big 12
TCU -- 5-0
Kansas State -- 4-1
Oklahoma State -- 3-2
Texas -- 3-2
Baylor -- 3-2
Oklahoma State owns head-to-head victories over both teams, but Baylor and Texas control their respective destinies while the Cowboys do not. That's because both still have games ahead with TCU and K-State, while OSU is 0-2 against the two. Assuming TCU finishes 8-1, BU/UT would win a tiebreaker at 7-2 over the Wildcats and Cowboys.
Oklahoma State needs Baylor/Texas losses and two K-State losses or an outright TCU collapse.
Big Ten
East
Michigan -- 5-0
Ohio State -- 5-0
Maryland and Penn State are technically still alive but, c'mon. The division will be decided Nov. 26 in Columbus. Expect to hear more about this game in the coming days and weeks.
West
Illinois -- 4-1
Purdue -- 3-2
Purdue's Nov. 12 trip to Champaign likely decides the West, which both schools have never won. Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska are all nominally alive at 2-3, but Illinois owns head-to-head victories over all four. Purdue lost to Wisconsin and has yet to play Iowa. One thing to keep in mind: Illinois has a Nov. 19 trip to Ann Arbor ahead, while Purdue closes with Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern outside of the Illinois game.
Conference USA
UTSA -- 4-0
North Texas -- 4-1
FIU -- 2-2
Rice -- 2-2
Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky are also in the mix at 3-2, but UNT holds head-to-head wins over both, while FIU and Rice still have upcoming games with the Mean Green.
MAC
East
Buffalo -- 4-0
Ohio -- 3-1
Bowling Green -- 3-1
Kent State -- 2-2
The first #MACtion game of the year is a big one. Buffalo at Ohio on Tuesday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) puts the winner in the driver's seat. Bowling Green needs an Ohio win, since the Falcons have an upcoming game with the Bobcats, and a Buffalo loss elsewhere. Kent State has already defeated Ohio and has games with Buffalo and BG upcoming.
West
Toledo -- 4-1
Western Michigan -- 2-2
Ball State -- 2-2
The round-robin between Toledo, Western Michigan and Ball State will play out over November. Stay tuned.
Mountain West
Mountain
Boise State -- 5-0
Wyoming -- 4-1
Boise State's Nov. 19 trip to Laramie will decide the division, barring some absolutely crazy hijinks playing out.
West
Fresno State -- 3-1
San Jose State -- 3-1
UNLV -- 2-2
San Diego State -- 2-2
Fresno State is in an incredibly strong position, thanks to head-to-head wins over SJSU and SDSU and its loss coming outside the division. UNLV can get involved with a Nov. 11 win over the Bulldogs, but the Rebels need San Jose State to lose twice more.
Pac-12
Oregon -- 5-0
USC -- 5-1
UCLA -- 4-1
Utah -- 4-1
Nov. 19 brings us Utah at Oregon and USC at UCLA. For the fun of it, let's say those four teams don't lose elsewhere before or after then. If Oregon wins, the situation is simple and clean -- the Ducks play the winner of the Battle for the Victory Bell. If Utah wins, things get messy. Best I can tell, a 3-way tie at 8-1 between Utah, Oregon and USC/UCLA would go down to each team's intra-conference strength of schedule. Based on the way the standings appear today, USC and Oregon are at the biggest disadvantages by virtue of playing the "softest" Pac-12 schedules. Again, stay tuned.
SEC
East
Georgia -- 5-0
Tennessee -- 4-0
You may be aware of a game happening in Athens this weekend.
West
LSU -- 4-1
Alabama -- 4-1
Ole Miss -- 4-1
LSU is technically in first place in the East today, thanks to that Oct. 22 drubbing of Ole Miss, while Alabama can clinch its SEC-best 15th conference title with wins in its next two games. Ole Miss will spend its idle Saturday rooting for a Crimson Tide win in Baton Rouge.
In the event Alabama beats LSU, Ole Miss beats Alabama, but the Rebels stumble down the stretch (don't act like this can't happen, Ole Miss fans), Alabama would win the West. The Tide and Tigers would be 5-1 vs. the West, while Ole Miss (who only has West games left, having already beaten Vandy and Kentucky from the East) would be 4-2.
Sun Belt
East
Coastal Carolina -- 4-1
James Madison -- 3-2
Georgia State -- 2-2
Appalachian State -- 2-2
Georgia Southern -- 2-2
Old Dominion -- 2-2
In a 7-team division, six are within one game of the lead. Coastal owns a loss to ODU and wins over the Georgia schools, with App coming on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) and JMU to close the season. Does it get any more #FunBelt than that?
West
Troy -- 4-1
South Alabama -- 3-1
Southern Miss -- 3-1
Jon Sumrall's team owns head-to-head wins over South Alabama and Southern Miss and its three remaining SBC opponents are a combined 4-11. This is Troy's division to lose. In the event the Trojans do stumble, Southern Miss hosts South Alabama on Nov. 19.