First-year head coaches were wildly successful in 2022. Why?

It's never been harder to be a first-year head coach, what with the early signing period, the transfer portal, and NIL.

It's also never been easier to be a first-year coach, what with the early signing period, the portal, and NIL.

One could view the results of the 2022 season and make an argument in either direction. In the wrong case, a head coach could get hired to a new job, only to learn half his 2-deep was already in the portal before he cinched up his tie for the opening press conference and his new rivals were hard at work getting his new school's commitments before he has time to make an introduction.

Turn the globe the other way, though, and one could argue the current climate has never been easier on a new head coach. The NCAA has further cleared the deck for new coaches by eliminating the 25-man initial counter rule. Don't like the roster you inherited? No problem. Thanks to the portal, you could import a whole new 2-deep by your first spring practice. 

The point here is not to argue one view over another. Both have their merits. 

But the numbers show that the Hiring Class of 2022 succeeded like none in recent memory. 

The '22 class brought a collective 25-win improvement to their new campuses, blowing out the previous numbers on record. A FootballScoop examination of the three previous full* hiring classes showed a 6-win decrease for new hires in 2018-19, a 10-win improvement in 2017-18, and a modest 2-win improvement in 2016-17.

* To get a full apples-to-apples examination, FootballScoop did not study the 2019-20 and 2020-21 hiring cycles due to 2020 being an abbreviated season.

Of the 28 new hires to hit the field in 2022, 20 showed improvement or were a net neutral on their team's win total. 

Within that chart, a trend becomes clear: experience matters.

Of the 11 new head coaches to bring a win increase to campus, only three were first-time head coaches. One of those three has been a head coach before at the high school level (McGuire) and had the good fortune to spend November observing his new team. 

Jerry Kill had been a head coach of five previous universities before he got to New Mexico State. Brian Kelly had been a head coach of four. Sonny Dykes led three programs previously; Kalen DeBoer and Mike MacIntyre two.

Beyond that, the top group inherited or imported experience at the most important position on the team other than head coach: quarterback.

Lincoln Riley brought Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Dykes had the luxury of staging a competition between Chandler Morris and Max Duggan, who were both already on campus. 

Kelly and DeBoer imported multi-year starters at the Power 5 level. Troy's Jon Sumrall arrived with senior Gunnar Watson, a starter in 2020 and '21, on campus. Duke's Riley Leonard played the last half of 2021 before taking over in 2022. 

"Any time that you can overdeliver given the circumstances says a lot about the young men and how well they have really bought into a change in the standards," Brian Kelly said during the season. "They've played exceedingly well, we've gotten contributions from kids that weren't on this campus. Obviously we're playing a number of true freshmen and transfer students that we brought in. So that's difficult, right? We didn't have any indication how that would all come together, but the kind of kids they are, the production that they've given us has really allowed us to meet and exceed expectations."

In an interview with FootballScoop, Troy's Sumrall said he added multiple starters in the portal but, most importantly, devoted most of his energy keeping the players that were already in the boat from jumping ship. Troy did not lose any projected starters to the portal and honored the pledges of all recruits who committed to Chip Lindsey's staff. 

"I got the job and I first and foremost wanted to makes sure that I engaged with our current roster and I spent time getting to know those young men that were already in the program before I went out and recruited anyone new. While we did add some players, the most important players on any team are the ones you already have on your team," Sumrall told me. "It's true for every head coach but especially for when you're a new head coach, your current roster are the most important players in the program."

"I think we had some good young men in the program. I made it abundantly clear to them that we were on the same team. I think too often people say, 'Wait til he gets his guys.' Yeah that helps, but at the end of the day we're on the same team, let's win now."

Win now, they did. The 24-man 2023 class will have some work cut out to match the 25-win bump of the '22 class in their own rookie season. And if the '23 class manages to approach that number, we might really have some evidence to show that recent rule changes really have made it easier than ever to be a new head coach.