Florida State board chairman signals school's intent to leave ACC

Conference realignment is typically a cloak-and-dagger activity. It's anonymous people making holding closed-door meetings to decide the fates of their universities for decades to come. Just yesterday, the group in charge of Arizona and Arizona State met virtually in a public meeting... for just enough time to hold a vote to take their meeting offline. 

And then there's Florida State board of regents chairman Peter Collins, who went on the world's most popular video platform on Tuesday and all but told the world FSU will leave the ACC sooner than later.

Let's break it down, Q&A style. 

What's the issue here? To recap: In 2016, the ACC and ESPN agreed on a 20-year contract in which ESPN agreed to fund the ACC Network, and the ACC and its schools agreed to sign a grant of rights, theoretically binding them to the conference through the life of the agreement. Florida State (and others, to be sure) view that contract as an albatross around their neck, and the grant of rights is a deadbolt on the albatross.

According to the GoR, any money Florida State (or others) would make as an independent, as a member of the SEC or Big Ten, or even as the NFL's 33rd team would then revert back to the ACC, thereby making the Seminoles (or others) worthless on the open market. This was the GoR's whole appeal, providing ESPN the security it needed to fund the ACC Network.

To date, no one's ever tried to break a GoR contract. Florida State might be able to break it for nothing. Or it could cost hundreds of millions of dollars. 

While the ACC is under contract through 2036, the SEC and Big Ten have signed new deals that put them $30 to $35 million per year ahead of each ACC school and -- worst of all -- both will get another turn at the plate before the ACC's next at bat in the middle of the next decade.

Is the ACC attempting to do anything about this? In May, the ACC attempted to mitigate the issue by introducing the "success incentive initiative," which would award larger chunks of the financial pie to schools who win on the field. 

In Collins' and Florida State's view, this is a band-aid on a bullet hole. He believes Florida State deserves a larger cut no matter what happens on the field and, even with a larger cut, it still barely addresses the underlying problem.

"It's not going to get us there. Let's say it gives Florida State $6 million more a year. Okay, well now we're not losing $35 million a year, we're losing $29. It's still insurmountable," he said."When you go to the schools and say 'We're spending X and you're spending Y, we're competing at this level and you're not, you know, it's a touchy subject."

What's Florida State's plan here? Collins didn't come out and say Florida State is going to challenge the grant of rights... but Florida State is going to challenge the grant of rights.  

"We have a very good handle on what our risks are under that document. What our opportunities are under that document. That's the least of my worries. We have gotten a lot of counsel on that document, and that will not be the document that keeps us from taking action," he said. "I'll leave it at that."

How serious is Florida State about this? Serious as a heart attack. When you're talking about a $30+ million a year gap over more than a dozen years, the gap could be above $400 million a year in moneys earned by the time the ACC grant of rights expires.

Rightly or wrongly, Collins views this as an existential threat toward Florida State's pursuit of national championships. 

"If you take the TV money out of it, we're fourth in (the SEC and Big Ten) in the amount of money we bring, but once you throw the TV contract in, that gap is massive. When the gap gets that large, is it insurmountable?"

Let's say Florida State gets out of the ACC. Then what? Florida State believes it would be a highly-sought free agent, if and when that comes to pass/ 

"By every measurable media statistic, we are a valuable commodity. By every measurable fan base statistic, we are a valuable commodity. By every measurable market statistic, we are a valuable commodity. The value of our brand and the value of Seminole Nation is strong," he said. "I like our prospects. I don't have a bit of hesitancy about our prospects."

Would Florida State prefer to join the ACC or the Big Ten? Culturally and geographically, Florida State makes infinitely more sense in the SEC. However, financials could -- hypothetically -- push the Seminoles to the Big Ten.

Collins said Florida State would go wherever the dollars led them. 

"Would we rather go to a local game in the SEC or do you want to get on a plane and go... wherever? The regional characteristics are real, and I'm not sure that that applies today," he said. "There's a lot of reasons that I'd rather stay local and be regional, but it comes down to the finances and it comes down to getting the most out of the parts that you have. At the end of the day we need resources to compete, and we're going to everything we can to have the most resources to compete. If that means we're not going to play every game within three hours, okay."

Who would be more interested in the 'Noles, the SEC or the Big Ten? Both? Neither? ESPN already owns every ACC game through 2035-36. We know this. After this season, ESPN will also own every SEC game through 2030. Florida State-Tennessee would certainly draw a couple million more viewers than Florida State-Wake Forest, but is that enough to totally devalue a property ESPN owns for the next 13 years? Highly doubtful.

Adding Florida State would bring new audiences for the Big Ten's games on Fox, CBS and NBC, but it remains to be seen if the Big Ten still has an appetite for expansion after adding USC and UCLA. 

“My view is we know who we are,” SEC commissioner Sankey said last month. “We’re comfortable as a league. We’re focused on our growth to 16. We’ve restored rivalries. We’re geographically contiguous with the right kind of philosophical alignment, and we can stay at that level of super conference.” 

“I’d be lying if I said we weren’t thinking about it,” Illinois chancellor Robert Jones said in April. “But it’s not at the top of the list. There’s no sense of urgency about it at this point.”

There's also this:

Where does Florida State stand on this today? While Collins dropped plenty of hints as to where Florida State stands, timing remained vague. The next move could be tomorrow, or it could be in 24 months. 

"There's no risk-free decision. We're going to certainly be judged by any decision we make for a long, long time, but we have to be willing to make that decision and take what comes from what. I think the leadership of the university is willing to make a tough decision," he said. "We are going to make a very educated decision. I can't tell you today what that decision's going to be, but I can tell you it will be made with the institution in mind and knowing everything we can know, but everything is not knowable."

Was there anything else Collins said that shined a light on Florida State's intentions? This comment was in reference to planned upgrades of Doak Campbell Stadium, but I thought it indicative of his overall philosophy in regards to his stewardship of Florida State University. 

"We can't be excellent and be cheap," he said. "That's a fact of life."