We know who Georgia is.
The defending national champions and owners of the nation's longest winning streak are a product of one of the most talented rosters in college football. The 247Sports team composite rankings rates Georgia as the No. 2 most talented roster in the sport, trailing only Alabama. The 2021 national champion team tied a record with 15 draft picks... and you can hardly tell. To borrow a term from college basketball, Georgia is very much a Monday Night Program.
And their opponent in Monday night's national championship game is.... what, really?
The 2022 TCU Horned Frogs are college football's first true Cinderella story. This is a team that:
A) went 5-7 a year ago
B) is coached by a head coach and offensive coordinator that went 8-4 in the American in 2021, and a defensive coordinator that went 7-6 in the American
C) entered this season 200-to-1 to win the national title
D) was picked to finish seventh in the 10-team Big 12
E) didn't even enter the rankings until Oct. 2.
The same 247 rankings places TCU 32nd, one spot below 6-7 Missouri and two spots below 5-7 Georgia Tech.
Here's a player-by-player breakdown of where each TCU starter stood as a recruit. All rankings via 247 composite.
OFFENSE
Quarterback
Max Duggan: 4-star, top 250 recruit; 42 career starts
Running Back
Kendre Miller: 3-star, flipped from UTSA on signing day
Emari Demercado: 3-star, top 200 juco recruit; 6th-year senior
Wide Receiver
Quentin Johnston: 4-star, top 100 recruit
Taye Barber: 3-star; 5th-year senior
Derius Davis: 3-star; 5th-year senior
Savion Williams: 3-star
Tight End
Jared Wiley: 3-star; Texas transfer
Offensive Line (L-to-R)
Brandon Coleman: 3-star, top 50 juco recruit
Steve Avila: 3-star, 5th-year senior
Alan Ali: 3-star; 6th-year senior; 53 career starts; SMU transfer
Wes Harris: 4-star, top 250 recruit; 6th-year senior
Andrew Coker: 3-star; redshirt junior, started every game when healthy
DEFENSE
Linebacker
Jamoi Hodge: 3-star, top 50 juco recruit
Johnny Hodges: no recruiting profile (Navy transfer)
Dee Winters: 3-star
Defensive Line
Dylan Horton: 3-star, 5th-year senior
Damonic Williams: 3-star
Terrell Cooper: 2-star; 6th-year senior
Secondary
Josh Newton: 2-star; 5th-year senior; ULM transfer
Bud Clark: 4-star
Abe Camara: 3-star, top 50 juco recruit
Millard Bradford: 3-star, No. 1 prep school recruit
Mark Perry: 3-star; Colorado transfer
Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson: 3-star; Thorpe Award winner
So, what now? Should every other Power 5 coaching staff resign in shame, a penance for Sonny Dykes, Garrett Riley and Joe Gillespie unlocking something they never could? Not exactly.
In speaking with sources and analyzing TCU's roster, a few truths emerged:
1) This is an old team. As listed above, TCU has a number of 5th- and 6th-year seniors. Eight Frogs have started at least 30 college games, and 14 have started 20 or more. Only one first- or second-year player sees significant snaps: true freshman nose guard Damonic Williams.
2) This is an extraordinarily healthy team. Stud wide receiver Quentin Johnston battled ankle injuries during the second half of the regular season, and RB1 Kendre Miller is questionable to play on Monday... but that's about it. Max Duggan started every game since re-joining the lineup in Week 2. Most importantly: unless someone turns an ankle getting off the bus to SoFi Stadium, the offensive line will go a perfect 75-for-75 in possible starts this season.
3) Forget what the recruiting industry said, NFL talent evaluators will really like this team, especially the offense. "Johnston and Miller are legit dudes. Three NFL O-linemen. QB and backup RB are late draftable. Five DBs that will be late round guys when they come out," an AFC scout told me.
"Everyone on their O-line will be in a camp at least," a Big 12 head coach echoed.
4) The Gary Patterson factor. The Frogs' fortunes on the field undoubtedly fell off after the Frogs played for the Big 12 title in 2017, but the roster, especially the defense, is full of what we'll call Gary Patterson Specials.
Defensive end Dylan Horton, last seen sacking Michigan's JJ McCarthy four times, was barely a top 2,000 recruit as a 202-pound safety when he signed with New Mexico in 2018. He transferred to TCU in 2020 and grew into a 6-foot-4, 275-pound terror off the edge.
Linebacker Dee Winters was a top-700 recruit as a 192-pound safety out of Burton High School, which plays in the smallest 11-man division in Texas.
Cornerback Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson was not a top 1,000 recruit in the class of 2019. He'll leave Fort Worth with the Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back.
No one's doubting Gillespie, but it remains to be seen if he -- and, indeed, every other coach in college football -- can identify defensive talent at the level Patterson does.
5) This is a fast team. "Fastest team we faced in the conference by far," the Big 12 head coach said.
"They can really run on defense," said an assistant with a different Big 12 team.
6) The 3-3-5 defense is a huge advantage. It doesn't have a cool name like the Air Raid and a charismatic leader like the late, great Mike Leach, but the 3-3-5 is to defense what the Air Raid was to offense. Popularized by Iowa State's Jon Heacock, every team in the country will at least dabble in some form of the 3-down defense 20 years from now.
The 3-down alignment essentially works as a magic trick. Offenses see the three defenders at the line of scrimmage and are lulled into a false sense of confidence they can run all over the Frogs, only to find a swarm of second- and third-level defenders once their running back gets the ball.
TCU's run defense stats aren't eye-popping; they rate 70th in run defense (152.1 yards per game) and 69th per carry (4.14), but the Frogs have stuffed the run when it mattered. Texas essentially abandoned the run mid-game after TCU limited Doak Walker Award winner Bijan Robinson to a season-low 29 yards on 12 carries. Michigan's Donovan Edwards gashed TCU for 54 yards on the opening play of the Fiesta Bowl, then mustered just 65 yards on his final 22 carries.
"It's the scheme that helps them the most," the AFC scout said.
"Joe's scheme has worked really well for them," the Big 12 assistant agreed.
TCU is college football's first Cinderella... and perhaps its last. While access to the College Football Playoff will increase once the format moves to 12 teams after next season, surviving to the final two will only become more difficult.
Or, who knows? Perhaps someone out there is studying TCU and will copy the Frogs' purpleprint.