We're told there is no shortcut to victory, but that shouldn't stop us from trying to find one.
Over the years, we've tracked how often out-rushing the opponent, out-passing the opponent, scoring first, leading at halftime, and winning the turnover battle correlate to victory, and in tracking thousands of games we've found that, while some statistics reliably put you on the path, there is no foolproof path to the win column. Not even winning all five categories is a complete guarantee.
Understanding that the only true guarantee of victory is having more points than your opponent when time expires in the fourth quarter, this path might be the next-closest thing.
In Week 10 across FBS, teams that out-rushed their opponents and won the turnover battle were a combined 26-2. In Week 9, they went 34-4. In Week 8, 20-4. In Weeks 3 and 4, they were a combined 60-0.
In fact, in a 317-game sample size throughout the season, teams that win rushing and win turnovers are a combined 292-25. That .921 winning percentage is not a guarantee, but it's more likely than a Steph Curry free throw (91 percent, an NBA record), more likely than a PGA Tour player sinking a 4-foot putt (88 percent), and far more likely than Nick Saban's Alabama beating ULM (66.7 percent).
We could break this down any which number of ways, but my favorite explanation is the simplest: Controlling the ground game and winning turnovers allows you to possess the football, and it's really, really hard to lose a football game when your opponent rarely possess the ball.
Week 10 Numbers
-- Rush for more yards: 34-14 (.708)
-- Pass for more yards: 27-22 (.551)
-- Score first: 30-19 (.612)
-- Lead at halftime: 29-13 (.690)
-- Win turnovers: 34-8 (.810)
-- Win all five: 8-1 (.889)
Year to Date
-- Rush for more yards: 482-139 (.776)
-- Pass for more yards: 388-237 (.621)
-- Score first: 442-183 (.707)
-- Lead at halftime: 488-96 (.836)
-- Win turnovers: 373-105 (.780)
-- Win all five: 127-4 (.969)
Notes:
-- Sam Houston's last two games have seen 29 points scored, combined. They are 2-0 in those games.
-- After not recording a Reverse Quinfecta for nearly two years, it's now become nearly a weekly occurrence. This time, Eastern Michigan out-rushed Toledo 170-167, out-passed them 265-251, won turnovers 2-1, led 7-0 after one quarter and 10-7 after two, yet lost the game, 29-28.