The most important stat in football.... is still the most important stat in football
Every year I like to take a look at how turnover margin correlates with winning, because every year I'm surprised at just how strong that correlation is. I wanted to peek at the numbers a bit earlier this season to see if they swayed one way or another due to a smaller sample size.
Turns out, the cream is already starting to separate itself from the crop.
To this point in the season, 38 teams have registered a turnover margin of +1.0 or greater. Those 38 teams have a combined record of 82-19. Of those 38, 20 are undefeated and all but two are .500 or greater (Western Michigan and Tulane). What's more, three of those 19 losses have come within the group -- Arizona's only loss came to Houston, and the same is true for Kansas State (Vanderbilt), NC State (South Carolina), and South Carolina (Kentucky).
Team | Turnover Margin | Record |
Texas A&M | +2.67 | 2-1 |
Penn State | +2.33 | 3-0 |
South Florida | +2.00 | 3-0 |
Alabama | +2.00 | 3-0 |
Central Florida | +2.00 | 1-0 |
Miami | +2.00 | 1-0 |
SMU | +1.67 | 2-1 |
Kansas State | +1.67 | 2-1 |
San Diego State | +1.67 | 3-0 |
Ohio State | +1.67 | 2-1 |
Virginia Tech | +1.67 | 3-0 |
Wake Forest | +1.67 | 3-0 |
Houston | +1.50 | 2-0 |
Texas Tech | +1.50 | 2-0 |
Maryland | +1.50 | 2-0 |
California | +1.33 | 3-0 |
Wyoming | +1.33 | 1-2 |
Duke | +1.33 | 3-0 |
South Carolina | +1.33 | 2-1 |
Kentucky | +1.33 | 3-0 |
Western Michigan | +1.33 | 1-2 |
Arizona | +1.33 | 2-1 |
Washington | +1.33 | 3-0 |
Minnesota | +1.33 | 3-0 |
NC State | +1.33 | 2-1 |
Iowa State | +1.33 | 2-1 |
Vanderbilt | +1.33 | 3-0 |
Central Michigan | +1.00 | 2-1 |
Utah | +1.00 | 3-0 |
Purdue | +1.00 | 2-1 |
Washington State | +1.00 | 3-0 |
Tulane | +1.00 | 1-2 |
Virginia | +1.00 | 2-1 |
LSU | +1.00 | 2-1 |
Memphis | +1.00 | 2-0 |
Eastern Michigan | +1.00 | 2-0 |
Conversely, there is no faster way to lose a game than to lose the turnover battle. Twenty-eight teams carry an average of minus-1.0 or greater, and those 28 teams are a combined 25-52 on the year. Eight are winless.
Team | Turnover Margin | Record |
Georgia State | -4.50 | 0-2 |
Florida State | -3.00 | 0-1 |
East Carolina | -2.33 | 0-3 |
Indiana | -2.00 | 1-1 |
Charlotte | -2.00 | 0-3 |
Rice | -1.67 | 1-2 |
Nevada | -1.67 | 0-3 |
Idaho | -1.67 | 1-2 |
Missouri | -1.67 | 1-2 |
Boston College | -1.67 | 1-2 |
Auburn | -1.67 | 2-1 |
Oregon State | -1.50 | 1-3 |
San Jose State | -1.50 | 1-3 |
Florida International | -1.50 | 1-1 |
Middle Tennessee | -1.33 | 1-2 |
Baylor | -1.33 | 0-3 |
Massachusetts | -1.00 | 0-4 |
Old Dominion | -1.00 | 2-1 |
Texas State | -1.00 | 1-2 |
Kansas | -1.00 | 1-2 |
Louisiana Tech | -1.00 | 2-1 |
Utah State | -1.00 | 1-2 |
New Mexico | -1.00 | 1-2 |
Navy | -1.00 | 2-0 |
UNLV | -1.00 | 1-1 |
Connecticut | -1.00 | 1-1 |
Louisiana-Monroe | -1.00 | 0-2 |
Auburn Old Dominion and Navy stand out as clear outliers here. (Auburn especially; the Tigers are minus-7 in their two wins and were plus-2 in their loss to Clemson.) Either their turnover margins will change, or their winning percentages will.
