Every year I like to take a look at how turnover margin correlates with winning, because every year I'm surprised at just how strong that correlation is. I wanted to peek at the numbers a bit earlier this season to see if they swayed one way or another due to a smaller sample size.
Turns out, the cream is already starting to separate itself from the crop.
To this point in the season, 38 teams have registered a turnover margin of +1.0 or greater. Those 38 teams have a combined record of 82-19. Of those 38, 20 are undefeated and all but two are .500 or greater (Western Michigan and Tulane). What's more, three of those 19 losses have come within the group -- Arizona's only loss came to Houston, and the same is true for Kansas State (Vanderbilt), NC State (South Carolina), and South Carolina (Kentucky).
Conversely, there is no faster way to lose a game than to lose the turnover battle. Twenty-eight teams carry an average of minus-1.0 or greater, and those 28 teams are a combined 25-52 on the year. Eight are winless.
Auburn Old Dominion and Navy stand out as clear outliers here. (Auburn especially; the Tigers are minus-7 in their two wins and were plus-2 in their loss to Clemson.) Either their turnover margins will change, or their winning percentages will.