You don't lose 13 players, your head coach, your defensive coordinator and your strength coach to the NFL without paying a price, and three games the cost of losing all that collective talent and experience is evident in one statistic. That statistic is turnover margin.
Last year's national champions led the nation in turnover margin, forcing 27 takeaways to just eight giveaways on their 15-game march to the trophy. Against Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Alabama and Washington, the Wolverines were a collective plus-8: claiming nine turnovers while coughing the ball up only once.
Three games in to their title defense, Michigan is a minus-4. The Wolverines were a plus-1 in the opener against Fresno State, but they lost that battle 3-0 to Texas and 3-1 on Saturday in their 28-18 win over Arkansas State. All three turnovers were Davis Warren interceptions; they were his only incompletions on the day.
Michigan's next turnover will equal the number of giveaways the 2023 team committed -- again, in 15 games.
Heading into Week 4 of the season, turnover margin already highly correlates with winning in losing. The 10 best teams nationally in turnover margin (top 11 really, due to ties) are a combined 26-3 on the season. That group includes 3-0 surprises like Cal, AP No. 24 Illinois, Arizona State, and Indiana. The 10 worst teams are a combined 13-16.
That group doesn't include Michigan, whose minus-1.33 per game mark places them "only" 118th, but the Wolverines will find themselves there before too long -- while also, by the way, struggling to make a bowl game -- if the offense continues turning the ball over three times a game.
Week 3 numbers
-- Rush for more yards: 51-12 (.810)
-- Pass for more yards: 40-23 (.635)
-- Score first: 41-22 (.651)
-- Lead at halftime: 51-9 (.850)
-- Win turnovers: 40-7 (.851)
-- Win all five: 16-0 (1.000)
Year to date
-- Rush for more yards: 199-42 (.826)
-- Pass for more yards: 174-67 (.667)
-- Score first: 179-62 (.743)
-- Lead at halftime: 197-34 (.853)
-- Win turnovers: 137-41 (.770)
-- Win all five: 66-1 (.985)
-- Charlotte opened its season with losses to James Madison and North Carolina, but Saturday's 27-26 win over Gardner-Webb was the 49ers' worst performance yet. Biff Poggi's team was out-rushed and out-passed by their FCS visitors, turned the ball over three times, and trailed 17-3 at halftime. The 49ers rushed for 13 yards on 26 carries in the game.
-- Let's stay in North Carolina, where App State brought another round of chaos to an in-state, non-conference opponent. East Carolina led the Mountaineers 16-0 after one quarter, forced three App turnovers, won the rushing battle, yet lost the game, 20-19.
-- How do you lose a game while limiting the opponent to 7-of-18 passing for 86 yards? You throw two interceptions, while forcing no turnovers of your own. Kansas's 23-20 loss to UNLV on Friday night was a classic "Middle 8" loss for the Jayhawks.
After a missed Rebels field goal, KU took over at their own 33 with a minute and a half left in the first half, while also set to receive the second half kickoff. KU led 17-6. Good execution could put the game out of reach before UNLV's "Go Go" Offense took the field again. Instead, KU QB Jalon Daniels threw an interception that brought the ball back to the KU 33, UNLV scored a touchdown as the first half expired, KU went three-and-out to open the second half, and then Daniels threw an interception with exactly 11:00 left in the third quarter -- the end of the Middle 8 -- which set up a UNLV field goal.
-- Memphis dominated Florida State far more than the 20-12 final score indicated. The Tigers out-rushed the 'Noles by 28 yards (65-37), out-passed them 272-201, won turnovers 3-1, and never trailed in the game.
-- Miami out-gained Ball State 750-115 in its 66-0 drubbing of the Cardinals.
-- Pat Narduzzi said Pitt beat the refs and WVU in the Backyard Brawl on Saturday. The referees may very well have been a stout obstacle, but the Mountaineers gave the Panthers plenty of help. Not only did WVU QB Garrett Greene serve up two interceptions to Pitt's none, WVU also permitted Pitt to take a punt back for a touchdown. That's how you win a game where, if one takes out the long rush of the day (a 24-yard sprint by QB Eli Holstein), Narduzzi's team ran 28 times for 54 yards.