We live in a world where Washington-Rutgers and Stanford-Clemson are conference games, this very weekend no less. By that standard, is Hawai'i-Toledo really any worse?
The Mountain West has lost five of its 12 football-playing members this month, putting the league below the NCAA-mandated number of eight full members to remain an FBS conference. The conference survived a brush with extinction after Air Force and UNLV fielded offers from elsewhere, but the league announced Thursday it has signed a grant of rights, running from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2032. Funded by the exit fees of the five outgoing members (a reported $80 million), the conference will distribute millions to its members, ranging from 24.5 percent of the pie for Air Force and UNLV to five percent for Hawai'i.
Now that the money is right for the remaining members to stick around, the next task is recruiting new members.
Brett McMurphy of The Action Network tweeted Thursday night that the Mountain West notified the MAC of its interest in Northern Illinois and Toledo as the conference fights for its survival.
Thus far, the MAC has been the only FBS conference untouched by realignment. That's partially because its Midwest location has kept the conference away from the active battle fronts like Texas and California. And it's also because, to put it bluntly, none of the other conferences have come calling for a MAC school.
However, the MAC's finances leave the league vulnerable to poaching in the event someone comes calling. ESPN's TV deal with the MAC pays around $2-2.5 million per school per year. The Mountain West has deals with Fox, CBS and TNT, which pays a reported $5 million a year. The Fox and CBS contracts expire ahead of the 2026 season, before Boise State and company leave and before NIU and Toledo would come aboard.
So, that number could go up, or it just as easily go down.
Would doubling their TV money (assuming that even happens) justify the skyrocketing travel cost? MAC schools, Toledo in particular, can travel via bus to road games. No one's driving to Honolulu and Reno.
Then, NIU and Toledo would presumably also need to find new conferences for their Olympic sports, unless the league voted to keep them. There's also other costs to consider. Toledo has competed in the MAC since 1950. How much does it cost to make an extra couple million?
And then there's another factor: the Mountain West would still need to add two more schools since NIU and Toledo, like Hawai'i, would only be partial members. I theorized earlier today that the MW would pick up a non-football school like Grand Canyon. Perhaps MW commissioner Gloria Nevarez and her staff read that piece. Other schools out West such as Denver and Seattle also fit that bill.
This is a developing story. Stay tuned to The Scoop for the latest.