Nick Saban didn't pick Alabama for SEC championship as 'reverse rat poison' benefit to Alabama

Nick Saban leaving Alabama created two massive storylines for the 2024 college football season which, in case you hadn't heard, begins tomorrow. The first is, obviously, the resulting change from Saban to Kalen DeBoer and all the domino effects it caused elsewhere. (Washington, Arizona, San Jose State, Buffalo and South Alabama all have new head coaches because of Saban's retirement.) 

The other, less serious storyline is Saban moving from the sideline to the media. Seriously, the biggest buzz to emante out of the SEC's 4-day media event last month in Dallas was Saban being "denied" entry because he forgot his credential -- which ended up not even being true. (He turned around to go get it before the security guard even had the chance to deny him.) But "best coach of all time denied because of missing credential" made the rounds because: A) it's a better story, and B) that's the version Saban told himself on ESPN.

If nothing else, that episode proves that when Saban talks (especially when he's on ESPN's airwaves) people listen.

With that said, let's now move on to the other piece of news Saban made in Dallas last month: picking Georgia and Texas (and, thus, not Alabama) to play for the SEC championship. That prediction aired on ESPN, and then was amplified by the media across the Internet. Saban not predicting Alabama, the defending SEC champion, to make the SEC championship game in its first season without him was about as big of a predction-of-a-game-four-months-out can possibly be. 

“Well, it’s kind of reverse rat poison,” said Saban on Pat McAfee's show Friday from Ireland, where ESPN is planning to kick off its season with coverage from the Florida State-Georgia Tech game.

“I always hated it. I’m going to hate it on this show. I might as well say it right off the bat – this show, any show, or GameDay. Having to predict and make hypothetical decisions about who’s going to win a game, who’s going to win the championship, who’s going to win what conference. I’ve always hated that. I picked Georgia and Texas because it’s reverse rat poison for Alabama. It’s a motivating factor for them not to get picked because I hated to be picked first or second because you don’t know how that’s going to impact your team psychologically. These kids are affected a lot by what they read, what they hear, what they see. I didn’t want them to see anything too good.”

So, what do we make of this?

One the one hand (and I think this where I ultimately come down), no one should be surprised. Saban coached Alabama for 17 seasons. He recruited, roughly, 75 percent of the roster. He still keeps an office on Alabama's campus. He's openly said he'll help Kalen DeBoer any way he can. One would have to be thick in the head to think Saban can shed, or will, all those layers of favor for the Crimson Tide just because ESPN's cameras are on.

Even still, we're talking about a prediction given in July for a game that won't be played until December. Saban's prediction of a Georgia-Texas SEC championship won't make any bigger difference as to who actually meets in Atlanta than yours, or mine, or your drunk Uncle Jerry's. 

But on the other hand, we have Saban on record saying that predictions, and headlines, and the general tone with which a team is discussed matters. By Saban's own admission, being predicted to play for a championship is a competitive disadvantage, and being overlooked provides a competitive advantage in the form of a mindset that coaches can manipulate. 

And here we have an ESPN employee using his influence to provide a competitive advantage for one ESPN partner (Alabama) at the expense of its rivals (Georgia, Texas). 

Is this the journalistic scandal of the century? Of course not. Saban is a capital-J journalist in the same way that Burger King is European royalty. ESPN and viewers want to know what's on Saban's mind, plain and simple, and his biases are baked into the cake. 

But I think Saban's prediction and his recollection of that prediction are useful insights as we move into our first season with the GOAT as a TV regular for four reasons:

1) Again, when Saban talks, people listen.
2) Any prediction Saban makes is done so under duress.
3) Having said that, Saban knows his predictions and statements will have a tangible impact on what happens between the lines.
4) When given the opportunity, Saban won't hesitate to use his influence to benefit Alabama.