No one has more pressure on him this weekend than Steve Sarkisian: On the Line

A must-win game for Steve Sarkisian. In Saturday's Red River Shootout (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC), is Texas playing Game 5 in a best-of-7 series down 3-1? No. Is Sark going to be fired if he loses? Also no. So is Red River a must-win game in the most literal sense of the term? No.

But "Life will be really annoying if you lose, so you might as well win" doesn't quite roll off the tongue in the same way.

Regardless of the outcome in the Cotton Bowl, Sark will be secure in his employment as Texas returns to Austin late Saturday night, and Texas will still be in the SEC championship and College Football Playoff hunt with No. 4 Georgia coming to town for a much-anticipated showdown game next Saturday night. 

However, Sark will either prepare for Georgia riding high off a win over his arch rival, with the coveted Golden Hat seated next to him on the team bus, or he'll have to prepare for Georgia while also managing a crisis within his fan base.

If Texas loses Saturday, Sark will be 1-3 overall, and it'd be an ugly 1-3 at that. In 2021, an overmatched Longhorn team led by 18 with 17 minutes to play, yet surrendered a 32-7 run to lose in regulation. The 2022 win came against a depleted, rebuilding Sooner outfit that quite literally did not have a quarterback it felt could throw the ball down the field at a major college level. That 49-0 victory was like the cotton candy sold just outside the Cotton Bowl: tasty in the moment, but not much to offer in terms of lasting nutritional value. Last season, a higher-ranked, favored Longhorns team was out-coached and out-executed in an upset Sooners win. 

This year, Texas arrives in Dallas ranked No. 1 in the country, with two quarterbacks that will likely be first-round picks at worst. Oklahoma is ranked 18th, playing a true freshman quarterback for the first time in this rivalry's 120-game history, praying to Bud Wilkinson that Michael Hawkins, Jr., can be the spark that ignites an offense that, as recently as the fourth quarter of the Auburn game, looked broken. 

Now, before we drive further into Saturday's implications, let's take a brief run through the last four decades of Texas football history:

1990s: A period with some great moments (the 1996 Big 12 championship, Ricky Williams's Heisman run, a 7-2-1 Red River record) but largely forgotten. Texas lost 5-plus games more often (six times) than not (four).

2000s: Texas was the standard-bearer in the sport in many ways, but dogged by an inability to beat Oklahoma and consistently win the Big 12. UT's 4-6 Red River record from 2000-09 is better than you'd have guessed, isn't it?

2010s: A complete mess of a decade, from Late Stage Mack Brown, to Charlie Strong, to Tom Herman. Texas teams played hard in Dallas, but rarely won, going 3-8 vs. Oklahoma overall.

Going back to the 1990s, Texas has either played well against Oklahoma or played well elsewhere, but rarely both. The golden age of the Mack Brown years were marred by the 5-game losing streak and four blowout losses in 16 tries. 

And that brings us to today. Sark coaches a team that's expected to win, but is accustomed to losing within the Cotton Bowl crucible (Texas is 8-17 vs. OU since 2000). OU brings to Dallas a heritage of finding ways to win this game, along with the freedom that can only be enjoyed by a 2-touchdown underdog. 

Texas is expected to win, in a game it rarely wins. Oklahoma is not expected to win, in a game it usually wins. That puts Sarkisian in a dangerous spot. If it's 24-21 and Oklahoma has the ball with three minutes to play, how does he respond? More importantly, how does his team respond?

Call me crazy, but I think Ohio State is going to dominate Oregon on Saturday night. Both teams arrive to Saturday's game (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC) ranked one spot apart, but I think there's a world of difference between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon.

That's no slight at Oregon, it's simply praise for Ohio State, who I think push meets shove is the best team in the country. And I think there will be plenty of pushing and shoving in Autzen Stadium.

We've seen glimpses of the Buckeyes' dominance thus far. They lead the nation in total defense and yards per play, by relative miles. The offense has scored 20 touchdowns in 21 red zone trips; when execution has been required, they've been darn near unstoppable. They have Jeremiah Smith. And Caleb Downs. And the best running back tandem in college football.

I don't think we've seen Ohio State's best over an extended period of game time yet, because Ohio State's best hasn't been required. I think we see Ohio State's best on Saturday, and because of that I think Ohio State 42, Oregon 14 is more likely than Oregon 28, Ohio State 27. 

A quasi-elimination game in Baton Rouge. Lane Kiffin earned his first, and arguably only, significant regular season win in his four seasons at Ole Miss last year when his club outlasted Heisman Trophy-winner Jayden Daniels and LSU 55-49 last year in Oxford. He'll need another, or it's mathematically likely his fifth, and most important, season at Ole Miss will be a disappointment.

Let's do some arithmetic here. In non-conference, the Rebels defeated Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern. They lost to and defeated the SEC's Jekyll and Hyde -- losing to Kentucky and beating South Carolina. The remaining schedule calls for a home game with Oklahoma, a road trip to Arkansas, a home game with Georgia, a trip to Florida, and then the Egg Bowl at Vaught-Hemmingway. 

If Ole Miss isn't good enough to beat Kentucky and Ole Miss, it likely has another loss coming its way. And considering the most (only?) semi-impressive skin on its wall thus far is South Carolina, the Rebels would likely need to beat Georgia to make the Playoff. Saying "We have to beat Georgia or else" is the college football equivalent of a parent taking a toddler on a cross-country flight with one diaper. Technically it's possible, but you're almost certainly going to have a mess on your hands. 

The last time Ole Miss...
... Won in Baton Rouge: 2008
... Beat LSU in back-to-back years: 2008-09
... Took three of four from LSU: 1998-01

LSU likewise sees its realistic CFP hopes dashed with a loss.  Logic states if you're flawed enough to lose to South Carolina and Ole Miss, another loss or two awaits you in a more-difficult second half schedule; the next two weeks take them to Arkansas and Texas A&M, and Alabama comes to town Nov. 9.

Ole Miss is third in the nation in defensive yards per play; LSU is 96th. Kentucky reminded us the Rebels' gaudy offensive numbers don't mean much, LSU has the opportunity to do the same, in a gotta-have-it night game in Death Valley. 

Can't wait. 

Additional Games

-- Coastal Carolina at James Madison (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN2): In the one conference that still utilizes divisions, James Madison needs a victory to avoid starting 0-2 to Coastal's 2-0, effectively putting the Dukes three games behind the Chanticleers. A JMU win nudges the Dukes ahead of Coastal via the head-to-head tiebreaker, so we've essentially got a 3-game swing in Harrisonburg.

-- Northwestern at Maryland (8 p.m. ET Friday, Fox): Northwestern is already facing an uphill battle to reach a bowl game at 2-3, and 3-2 Maryland can likely kiss the postseason goodbye if Mike Locksley's crew doesn't win this contest. 

-- No. 16 Utah at Arizona State (10:30 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN): The standings in these 16-plus team, division-less conferences are like the leaderboards in golf: you may be three shots back of the lead, but there are six competitors you'd have to climb over to take the lead. Given that, both the Utes and Sun Devils are among six 1-1 Big 12 teams, who sit behind five 3-0 or 2-0 teams.

-- South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama (noon ET, ABC): Nick Saban never lost to Vanderbilt and, after his 2007 loading season, he also never lost games in back-to-back weeks, either. (Alabama lost two straight games in 2008 and '13, but the second of the two were bowl games each time.) We take no sides here at FootballScoop, but it would be infinitely funnier if Alabama lost this game.

-- No. 4 Penn State at USC (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): I've criticized Penn State plenty for never winning the games that matter, but James Franklin does deserve credit for winning 25 straight vs. unranked opponents. Meanwhile, this is a Sark-vs.-OU style must-win for Lincoln Riley, who is 5-7 over his last 12 games and seeks to avoid a 1-3 start to Big Ten play. 

-- Stanford at No. 11 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Stanford is thought of as one of Notre Dame's "traditional" rivals, but this "tradition" didn't begin until 1988. The Irish lead 22-14 and have won four of the last five. At 2-3 and with No. 25 SMU coming to The Farm next week, Troy Taylor's team needs to win one of the next two to reach a bowl.

-- Cal at No. 22 Pittsburgh (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Cal, NC State and North Carolina are the ACC's only 0-2 teams, even though the Golden Bears won the yardage battle by 124 in one loss (Florida State) and led 35-10 in the other (Miami). Do those setbacks fuel Justin Wilcox's team or destroy them?

-- Arizona at No. 14 BYU (4 p.m. ET, Fox): With wins over Southern Illinois, SMU, Wyoming, K-State and Baylor, ESPN has BYU as its No. 1 strength of record in the country. Not sure I understand that, but Kalani Sitake's team has played some mightily impressive defense thus far. 

-- Mississippi State at No. 5 Georgia (4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network): In the 27th semi-annual Bulldog Bowl, Mississippi State seeks its first victory over Georgia since 2010 and first in Athens since 1956. 

-- Florida at No. 8 Tennessee (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): All of a sudden, it's been a month since Florida lost a game and Tennessee's offense -- particularly the line -- has real problems. Also, it boggles the mind how thoroughly Florida has dominated this, taking 17 of 19 since 2005. 

-- Vanderbilt at Kentucky (7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Perhaps no game epitomizes the week-to-week volatility of college football than this game. Vanderbilt, who lost to Georgia State and beat No. 1 Alabama, is a 13.5-point dog to Kentucky, who was blown out at home by South Carolina and beat No. 6 Ole Miss on the road. 

-- No. 11 Iowa State at West Virginia (8 p.m. ET, Fox): Just as we all predicted back in August, Iowa State is undefeated and on the brink of the top 10. Just as we all foresaw last month after their 1-2 start, WVU is 2-0 in Big 12 play (albeit against the two worst teams in the conference: Kansas and Oklahoma State). If West Virginia is for real, we'll find out soon -- after this, they get No. 18 K-State at home next week. 

-- No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN): After rushing for 75 yards -- combined -- against North Dakota State and Nebraska, Colorado has averaged close to 110 over its last three games, all wins. Its defense is up close to 50 spots nationally from last season. The Buffaloes are, dare I say it????, a well coached football team in the thick of a conference championship race? K-State completely melted down in its last after-dark trip to the mountains (a 38-9 loss at BYU) so it's tough to trust them here. 

-- No. 17 Boise State at Hawaii (11 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): I get that geography dictates that Hawaii is the logical caboose in an all day quadruple-header -- they're certainly not going to put UAB-Army at 11 p.m. -- but, man, Ashton Jeanty is the biggest draw on your network by far and you're going to bury him at midnight? Really?