On the Line: Setting the stage for the college football weekend

Finally, the Pac-12 takes center stage. The Week 12 college football schedule -- the final one with a number, before we move on to Rivalry Week and Championship Week -- gives us two games pitting CFP ranked teams against each other, and both are Pac-12 affairs. No. 16 UCLA hosts No. 7 USC at 8 p.m. ET (Fox), while No. 10 Utah visits No. 12 Oregon at 10:30 (ESPN). 

From a College Football Playoff perspective, the picture is clearer than the view of the coast the 1 in Malibu. USC is the conference's last contender and, with games with No. 16 UCLA, Notre Dame and the Pac-12 Championship, the Trojans will have three spotlight opportunities to vault three spots forward by Dec. 4. At that point, USC would have to feel good about its odds; 20 of 23 1-loss Power 5 champions have reached the Playoff. 

But the race for the Pac-12 championship, though, is foggier than a winter San Francisco morning. The aforementioned four teams plus No. 17 Washington are still in the hunt for the title:

USC -- 7-1
Oregon -- 6-1
Utah -- 6-1
UCLA -- 5-2
Washington -- 5-2

-- If USC wins, it's simple. The Trojans are in the Pac-12 Championship, their conference season complete at 8-1. 

-- The Oregon-Utah winner is in the clear, but they wouldn't have clinched yet. Oregon would still have to beat No. 23 Oregon State, while Utah closes with Colorado.

-- If UCLA wins... it gets complicated. 

What FootballScoop can report is that no human mind on Earth can definitively state who the second representative in the Pac-12 Championship would be if UCLA beats USC on Saturday. In an attempt to get a handle on this, I called Pac-12 strategic manager of sports communication Jim Thornby on Wednesday morning. The conversation started something like this:

Me: "Hey Jim, this is Zach Barnett with FootballScoop. I was hoping you could walk me through the various Pac-12 championship scenarios...."

Jim: [knowing laughter]

The five contenders have seven conference games remaining, and Thornby told me those seven games can break in 128 different ways. Some of those breaks are simple: if USC beats UCLA and Colorado upsets Washington, Oregon and Utah are playing for the right to meet USC in Las Vegas on Friday, Dec. 2. If UCLA loses, it's out. If Washington loses, it's out.

But if three, four or even five teams wind up at 7-2... again, not one of the 8 billion living humans knows who'd be in Vegas in that scenario. Because not all teams in that group played each other, it'd come down to records against common conference opponents and intra-conference strength of schedule. The winner of Saturday's game between 1-7 Stanford vs. 1-6 Cal could wind up determining the Pac-12 champion.

What I can say with certainty is that it falls to Jim Thornby to sort through the various tiebreakers, and he's hoping to devote most of his Friday to working them all out.

With the way college football typically works, Thornby will work into the night on Friday, looking like Charlie Day from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia...

... and then on Saturday, USC will beat UCLA, Colorado will stun Washington, and there will be no ties left to break.

Additional Games: 

-- SMU at No. 21 Tulane (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN): Last week's game with UCF was a dud, but this week's is just as important. The Green Wave are 5-1 in AAC play, tied for second with 5-1 Cincinnati, and they go to Cincy next week. SMU (4-2 AAC) remains in the mix but needs serious help.

-- San Diego State at New Mexico (9:45 p.m. ET Friday, FS1): SDSU needs two wins and two Fresno State losses to win the MW West. Not likely, but possible.

-- Navy at No. 20 UCF (11 a.m. ET, ESPN2): Depending on what happens elsewhere, UCF can clinch a berth in the American title game for the third (2017-18) and final time with a win here. 

-- Illinois at No. 3 Michigan (noon ET, ABC): First off, Illinois is looking to avoid gagging away its first Big Ten Championship appearance, whilst Michigan is looking to sew up an 11-0 record heading into The Game. Beyond that, you've got two of the five leading rushers meeting in Illinois' Chase Brown (144.2 yards per game) and Michigan's Blake Corum (134.9). Michigan leads the nation in scoring defense (11.2 points per game), Illinois is third (12.5). Vegas expects something like a 31-14 Michigan victory; nevertheless, this game might be done in less than three hours.

-- No. 4 TCU at Baylor (noon ET, Fox): There was a time when this was the most heated rivalry in college football, particularly in 2014-15, when you had Gary Patterson's defense meeting Art Briles' offense. The animosity between the head coaches has, uh, cooled of late -- it's hard to imagine two mellower FBS head coaches than Dave Aranda and Sonny Dykes -- but the hatred remains. Saturday's game will be the 118th edition of the Revivalry, among the top 15 in FBS and tying UT-A&M for the most-played series in Texas. It also pits the 2021 Big 12 champion against the likely 2022 champ. Baylor's season has been a disappointment, but knocking TCU out of the Playoff would be a nice consolation prize. 

-- UMass at Texas A&M (noon ET, SEC Network+): Let's look at the bright side. Here's a golden opportunity for the Aggies to stop their longest losing streak in 50 years. 

-- Florida at Vanderbilt (noon ET, SEC Network): Billy Napier said last week's 38-6 destruction of South Carolina was the first time Florida looked like the team he wanted it to be. So it'll be interesting to see if the Gators can build off that against a Vandy team fresh off snapping its 26-game SEC losing streak and now seeks its first back-to-back SEC wins since 2018.

-- Virginia Tech at Liberty (noon ET): First off, how does Virginia Tech go to Old Dominion and Liberty in the same season? The Hokies already lost to ODU this season, so this game and next week's Commonwealth Cup could put Va Tech -- Virginia's premier program for two solid decades -- clearly in last place among Virginia's five FBS teams.

-- Wisconsin at Nebraska (noon ET, ESPN): Wisconsin needs a win to reach a bowl game for the 20th straight season. 

-- Northwestern at Purdue (noon ET, FS1): We usually make an every effort to break ties here in this space; see above, and also here. But I'll be honest, I just don't care enough to lay out who needs what to happen to win the Big Ten West. I can promise you this: four teams are 4-3, and one of them will win it. Purdue is one of those teams.

-- Indiana at Michigan State (noon ET, BTN): Michigan State needs to win one of its last two to reach a bowl.

-- Duke at Pitt (noon ET, ACC Network): Duke can't play for the ACC title, but the Blue Devils can post the second 10-win season in school history by winning their last two regular season games and the bowl. What a first-year performance by Mike Elko that would be.

-- UTSA at Rice (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+): UTSA can clinch hosting duties for the C-USA Championship with a win in one of its final two games. Rice need to take one of the next two to extend its season to December.

-- No. 15 Kansas State at West Virginia (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+): A win plus a Texas loss clinches Kansas State's first Big 12 Championship appearance since (checks notes) 2003. On the other sideline, it's been a week for WVU head coach Neal Brown. He beat Oklahoma on Saturday, then saw AD Shane Lyons fired Monday. The Mountaineers need to win out to reach a bowl.

-- Houston at East Carolina (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+): At 4-2 in league play, Houston is still on the fringe of the fringe of the AAC title race. But, on the fringe they are.

-- Georgia State at James Madison (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+): At 4-6, Georgia State must win out to reach a bowl.

-- Old Dominion at Appalachian State (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Appalachian State needs to win one of two to reach a bowl game. 

-- No. 2 Ohio State at Maryland (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Maryland has never beaten Ohio State and hasn't beaten an AP Top 2 team since knocking off No. 1 UCLA in 1955. 

-- Miami at No. 9 Clemson (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Clemson must win to keep its faint national championship hopes alive, Miami must win one of two to reach a bowl game. 

-- No. 11 Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Rutgers is still looking for its first win over Penn State since joining the Big Ten (last win: 1988), and needs to take its final two games to reach a bowl.

-- Texas at Kansas (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1): Texas needs a win to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive, and to avoid seeing the 2022 season drop to full-on turmoil. KU has not defeated a Big 12 opponent in consecutive years since topping Iowa State in 2008-09. Dating back to 2016, four of the five UT-KU games were decided by seven points or less, with the ledger sitting at 3-2 Texas.

-- Akron at Buffalo (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): Buffalo needs to win one of two to reach a bowl game.

-- South Alabama at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network): Southern Miss must win one of two to reach a bowl; South Alabama must win out and have Troy drop a game to reach the Sun Belt Championship.

-- ULM at Troy (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Two wins or a win plus a South Alabama loss puts Troy in the Sun Belt Championship for the first time ever, in Year 1 under Jon Sumrall.

-- Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Both teams are 5-5, so the winner clinches a bowl and the loser "advances" to a win-or-stay home game next week.

-- No. 25 Cincinnati at Temple (4 p.m. ET, ESPNU): Cincinnati's quest for back-to-back-to-back AAC titles on their way out of the conference doesn't exactly ride on a win here -- the Bearcats are still in good shape even with a loss, because they host Tulane next week -- but a win would strengthen their position.

-- Iowa at Minnesota (4 p.m. ET, Fox): See: Purdue. PJ Fleck has yet to defeat Kirk Ferentz in five tries. 

-- Florida International at UTEP (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+): With both teams at 4-6, this is a true elimination game. 

-- Western Kentucky at Auburn (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Auburn reaches a bowl game by winning out. Sure, that would require a win in Tuscaloosa next week, but let's take first things first.

-- Georgia Tech at No. 13 North Carolina (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): If Georgia Tech beats No. 13 North Carolina and No. 1 Georgia, the Yellow Jackets make a bowl game. If Georgia Tech beats No. 13 North Carolina and No. 1 Georgia, Brent Key should get the full-time job.

-- Stanford at Cal (5:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network): Stanford won a Big Game-record nine straight from 2010-18, but Cal has won two of three. A Bears victory gives them back-to-back wins over Stanford for the first time since 2008-09.

-- Marshall at Georgia Southern (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Georgia Southern must win one of its final two to extend its season to December. 

-- No. 5 Tennessee at South Carolina (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): A month ago, South Carolina was 5-2 and in the AP Top 25. Now, they could be looking at four losses in five games to close the year and unless they upset an AP Top 10 team.

-- Texas Tech at Iowa State (7 p.m. ET, FS1): Texas Tech must win one of two, Iowa State must win its last two. The Cyclones are 4-6 overall and 1-6 in Big 12 play, but they're the best last-place team in Power 5 history.

-- Boise State at Wyoming (7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): We've got a de facto MW Mountain championship game on our hands. The Broncos clinch the division with a win, while Wyoming wins it with a win here and a win or a Boise loss next week. Boise State has appeared in the MW Championship a conference-best five times. Wyoming, just once.

-- No. 14 Ole Miss at Arkansas (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): On Sept. 23, Arkansas was in the AP Top 10 and knocking on the door of a 21-7 lead over No. 23 Texas A&M. Today, the Hogs must win one of two to avoid missing a bowl game.

-- No. 22 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Officially, it's the least meaningful Bedlam in a long, long time. OU has not yet clinched a bowl game, the latest they've gone without a bowl ticket in the Bob Stoops and His Descendants era. Oklahoma State is hanging by a thread in the Big 12 title race. 

Of course, this is why this might be the most fun Bedlam in a long time. Whoever leaves Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium with a win will have made their season.

-- New Mexico State at Missouri (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): A win sends Missouri to the postseason. The Tigers have been bowl eligible every season since 2017.

-- Syracuse at Wake Forest (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network): Who's had the more disappointing second half? Wake was 6-1 with just a 51-45 loss to Clemson, they're now 6-4. Syracuse was 6-0 with a 21-7 lead over Clemson, they're now 6-4.

-- UAB at No. 6 LSU (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2): UAB must beat win one game in Louisiana to avoid missing a bowl game for the first time since 2016, when UAB did not have a football team: either in Baton Rouge on Saturday, or in Ruston next Saturday. One is likelier than the other. 

-- San Jose State at Utah State (9:45 p.m. ET, FS1): Like San Diego State, San Jose State needs two wins and two Fresno State losses to win the MW West. Utah State must beat SJSU or Boise State to reach a bowl game.

-- Fresno State at Nevada (10:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): A Fresno State victory sends the Bulldogs to the Mountain West Championship which, depending on the result in Lamarie, could tie Boise State for the most in conference history at five apiece. 

-- UNLV at Hawaii (11 p.m. ET): UNLV must win on the islands and next week against Nevada to reach the fifth bowl game in program history. 

Enjoy the games, everyone.