Notre Dame is "seeking to triple" its football rights fees with its next TV contract, according to a report from Front Office Sports.
Fighting Irish home games have been NBC property since 1991, and the pair's current deal runs through 2024 at $22 million a year (the Irish also earn $11 million a year as non-football members of the ACC). The report says Notre Dame will seek between $65 and $75 million per year -- again, just for football home games (plus neutral site games where the Irish are the designated home team) -- with its next deal.
Which begs the question: what is a Notre Dame home game worth?
Over the last three season (19 games, not counting two Peacock games) Notre Dame telecasts on NBC averaged 2.34 million viewers. No games topped the famed 4 million-viewer mark, and seven fell under 2 million.
That's not to say the Irish aren't still a big TV draw -- they are, under the right circumstances. Notre Dame's 2019 trip to Georgia attracted 9.29 million viewers to CBS, and the Irish's opener at Ohio State last season drew 10.53 million on ABC.
NOTRE DAME NBC GAMES, 2019-22 (2020 EXCLUDED)
2022
Marshall (L, 26-21) -- 2.48 million
California (W, 24-17) -- 2.91 million
vs. BYU (W, 28-20) -- 2.53 million
Stanford (L, 16-14) -- 2.15 million
UNLV (W, 44-21) -- N/A, Peacock
Clemson (W, 35-14) -- 3.22 million
Boston College (W, 44-0) -- 1.27 million
Average -- 2.43 million
2021
Toledo (W, 32-29) -- N/A, Peacock
Purdue (W, 27-13) -- 2.58 million
Cincinnati (L, 24-13) -- 3.81 million
USC (W, 31-16) -- 2.87 million
North Carolina (W, 44-34) -- 2.35 million
Navy (W, 34-6) -- 1.86 million
Georgia Tech (W, 55-0) -- 1.46 million
Average -- 2.49 million
2019
New Mexico (W, 66-14) -- 1.5 million
Virginia (W, 35-20) -- 2.82 million
Bowling Green (W, 52-0) -- 1.28 million
USC (W, 30-27) -- 3.16 million
Virginia Tech (W, 21-20) -- 2.95 million
Navy (W, 52-20) -- 1.56 million
Boston College (W, 40-7) -- 1.66 million
Average -- 2.13 million
All data via Sports Media Watch
Twenty-six Big Ten games aired on network television (Fox or ABC) in 2022; those games drew a median of 3.97 million viewers -- nearly 70 percent more than the average Notre Dame game. That's an unfair comparison, since it includes Big Noon Kickoff games that drew monster audiences (17.15 million for Michigan-Ohio State) which won't air in NBC's Big Ten at Night package.
Excluding Big Noon games and including games that aired on ESPN proper (not ESPN2) -- in other words, the caliber of games NBC is likely to get -- 27 Big Ten games averaged 2.76 million viewers, 17 percent above the average Notre Dame audience. The high-water mark among those games was 6.6 million (Ohio State-Maryland, in a week Fox opted for TCU-Baylor at Big Noon), with a low of 1.01 million (Purdue-Wisconsin on ESPN).
NBC will pay a reported $350 million per year for the right to air between 14 and 16 Big Ten football games, as well as eight football games on Peacock plus 77 men's and women's basketball games.
We can't know exactly how NBC will attribute that $350 million, but let's be conservative and say NBC believes 80 percent of the value from its B1G investment will come from those 14-to-16 football games broadcast on its over-the-air network. That's $280 million a year to show, on average, 15 games a year -- $18.7 million per game, roughly.
Earlier we established that Notre Dame games are worth, roughly, 80 percent of the Big Ten package (an average of 2.34 million viewers versus 2.76 million from comparable B1G). If we take 80 percent of that $18.7 million mark, multiply it by seven home games per season, we get [pulls out iPhone calculator] nearly $105 million per year.
Notre Dame is not going to get $105 million per year from NBC, but in fairness to the Irish, they aren't asking for $105 million a year. NBC surely has figures at its disposal that the Irish are worth much closer to the $22 million a year the network currently pays. Maybe they meet somewhere in the middle -- that's my guess -- or maybe they don't. Perhaps NBC is out of cash after splurging on the B1G. Maybe Notre Dame takes its games to Fox, CBS, or ABC/ESPN. (Notre Dame's incoming AD, Pete Bevacqua, is a longtime NBC Sports executive.)
The Front Office Sports report says, "if the Fighting Irish want that kind of money, they might have to give up their cherished independence — and finally join a power conference."
In my opinion, the report gets ahead of itself there. Setting aside the fair market value of Fighting Irish football, independence unto itself holds sentimental value to the University of Notre Dame. Being the last major independent is key to how Notre Dame sees itself, as the national university of the Catholic faith. Obviously, playing an independent schedule that puts the Irish on both coasts each fall is key to that mission, but simply being the last major independent makes Notre Dame different than any other university.
There's a number out there that would cause Notre Dame to give up independence. I couldn't begin to tell you what it is, but we all have a price. When the time comes, I suspect NBC will present two numbers, one for what the network would pay Notre Dame's current home schedule (two-to-three ACC games, USC or Stanford, a Group of 5 team, Navy every other year, and occasional games with Ohio State or an SEC power) and another for what the Irish would be worth as Big Ten members. The Big Ten number will be higher.
But based on the scratch-paper-math above, $10 million bucks a home game seems like a bargain.