It's spring meetings season in college football, and over at Sports Illustrated Ross Dellenger has a table-setting piece establishing the state of play in every Power 5 conference.
The ACC might break up, or it might not. The Pac-12 may be weeks away from functional extinction, or it could be on the brink of a lifeline TV contract. The SEC and Big Ten might continue expanding, or they might not. The Big 12, once on death's door, could soon find itself stretching from Connecticut to Las Vegas.
In short, there are a lot of balls in the air.
But within a sky of uncertainty, Dellenger dropped this line:
One thing is certain: The Pac-12 plans to expand by adding San Diego State and maybe SMU coinciding with its completion of a new TV deal.
Obviously SMU is included in that sentence, immediately preceded by a "maybe."
San Diego State would become the sixth school to move from a "have-not" to a "have" conference since the creation of the BCS in 1998 -- the others: Houston, Louisville, TCU, UCF, Utah -- and the biggest no-brainer of the bunch.
Los Angeles is the Pac-12's most important market, a market that will no longer carry a Pac-12 school once USC and UCLA leave in 2024. While San Diego State cannot begin to fill the void created by the Trojans and the Bruins, they're the only somewhat viable alternative.
Geography aside, San Diego State should be able to compete immediately in the major revenue sports. Aztec football has enjoyed 13 straight .500 or better seasons, with Mountain West titles in 2012, '15 and '16, and a division title with an AP Top 25 finish in 2021. SDSU also opened a brand new stadium just last season.
Aztec men's basketball has posted 18 consecutive winning seasons and played for the national championship just last month.
Academically, San Diego State is on the cusp of the top 150 in the (admittedly flawed) US News ranking. Again, that doesn't stack up to USC and UCLA, but SDSU is tied with Oregon State and ahead of Arizona State and Washington State.
While San Diego State "seems bound" to the Pac-12, their invitation is of course contingent upon there being a Pac-12 to join. Negotiations on a new TV deal are closing in on a full year now. July 1 stands as something of a firm deadline, and so if the Pac-12 is to ever complete to its marathon negotiations, a merciful end figures to arrive within the next six weeks.
Maybe. Perhaps. Stay tuned.