Four and a half seasons in, Scott Satterfield is 20-22 at Louisville. Since an 8-5 debut, his record stands at 12-17, including a 7-14 mark in ACC play and an 0-3 ACC record so far this season.
To make a conservative statement: Satterfield isn't at a point in his tenure where he can afford to let victory slip out of his grasp. Which is exactly what happened on Saturday.
Facing a Boston College team whose only previous victory came against Maine, Louisville entered as a 14-point favorite. The Cardinals opened the game with a 12-play, 70-yard touchdown drive. Malik Cunningham's second rushing touchdown of the game, a 1-yarder, put the Cardinals up 23-21 at the break, a lead Louisville expanded to five points entering the fourth quarter.
Teams that score first win just over 70 percent of their games, and teams that carry that led to halftime convert it into victory nearly 85 percent of the time.
Louisville also won the rushing battle, albeit slightly (147-144). That correlates to winning nearly 79 percent of the time.
On top of all that, the Cardinals forced three turnovers and surrendered just one. Teams that do that win 74 percent of the time. Louisville won points off turnovers, 10-0.
So how did Louisville lose? A pass defense that surrendered 304 yards on 21 attempts (14.5 per) certainly didn't help. Losing Cunningham (186 passing yards, 62 rushing yards, four total touchdowns) to a concussion in the fourth quarter was a crushing blow; backup Brock Domann was 1-of-8 for 19 yards. Having a 48-yard touchdown run called back by a chop block didn't help, either.
Also, Louisville showed that taking early leads is an advantage, but not an insurmountable one. The Cardinals' largest lead was 7-0, and it lasted barely four minutes.
Either way, Satterfield a career offensive coach, said today he'll start spending more time with the defense.
Louisville gets a winnable game at Virginia this week, but the second half of the slate is as tough as any in the country: Pittsburgh, No. 15 Wake Forest, undefeated James Madison, at No. 5 Clemson, No. 14 NC State, and then at No. 13 Kentucky in the Commonwealth Cup.
I don't know what Louisville's final record will be, but there's a 100 percent chance the Cardinals will look back at the Boston College game and wince.
Week 5 Box Scores:
-- Rush for more yards: 49-13
-- Pass for more yards: 35-27
-- Score first: 42-20
-- Lead at halftime: 45-15
-- Win turnovers: 33-10
-- Win all five: 7-0
Season Box Scores:
-- Rush for more yards: 295-80 (.787)
-- Pass for more yards: 249-125 (.666)
-- Score first: 265-110 (.707)
-- Lead at halftime: 302-54 (.848)
-- Win turnovers: 211-73 (.743)
-- Win all five: 75-0 (1.000)