IArkansas fans, avert your eyes. Upon review of the box score, your 23-21 loss to No. 17 Texas A&M was even worse than it appeared on Saturday night.
Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson out-passed his A&M counterpart Max Johnson, 171-51. Teams who out-pass their opponents win the game 68.6 percent of the time this season.
The stable of Hogs runners compiled 244 yards; the Aggies rushed for 192. Teams who out-rush their opponents are 246-67 so far this season, a winning percentage of .786.
After an exchange of punts, Arkansas opened the scoring with a 5-play, 69-yard touchdown drive. Teams who score first are 223-90 so far this season.
Arkansas led 14-13 at the half. While it wasn't as big a lead as the one they should've had -- more on this below, obviously -- teams who hold any lead at halftime go on to win the game 86.8 percent of the time.
Win all four categories and you've got an almost unbeatable combination. Almost.
In 313 FBS games thus far in 2022, teams that scored first, led at halftime, out-rushed and out-passed their opponent lost the game only five times. In 894 games across all of last season, the above combination happened only six times.
When @therealdemani says he wants the ball, you give him the ball.#GigEm pic.twitter.com/AhmzGIlCB5
— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) September 25, 2022
What's the most painful fact to swallow for Arkansas fans: that the above play occurred on first down, that Arkansas had A&M out-numbered for a wide receiver screen up top, or that Arkansas could have overcome this play if not for the strangest missed field goal of all time?
(Obviously, the answer is D, all of the above.)
For Texas A&M, the victory is either proof that the Aggies are managing to live right following the Appalachian State loss, or they're frauds avoiding their date with the executioner. A&M was also out-rushed and out-passed in their 17-9 win over Miami two weeks ago; the difference in that game was that muffed punts by each team found their way to Aggie hands both times.
If there's a comforting fact here for Arkansas, it's that the Hogs weren't the only team wallowing in their own filth on Saturday. In fact, their own neighbors joined them.
Arkansas State led Old Dominion 12-0 at the half, out-passed the Monarchs 285-279, out-rushed them 112-51... and lost 29-26.
The Red Wolves turned the ball over twice, and the Monarchs turned both into touchdowns. The first came when Deeve Harris swiped a James Blackman pass and returned it 16 yards for a touchdown, turning a 19-14 A-State lead into a 21-19 ODU advantage with 2:13 to play in the third quarter.
Then, with A-State back in front 26-21, Blackman was sacked and stripped at his own 29-yard line with 7:52 to play. Old Dominion cashed in with a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to provide the winning margin of a game in which it achieved just 12 first downs, went 3-of-13 on third down, and possessed the ball just 21:44.
Finally, Tulane similarly gagged away a win against Southern Miss. The Green Wave out-gained the Golden Eagles by nearly 200 yards (204-59 rushing, 247-194 passing), led 7-0 after one quarter and 17-10 at the half, yet lost 27-24. It was another pick-six that did Tulane in, this one a 35-yarder that gave Southern Miss a 27-17 lead. Tulane also missed a field goal, had another blocked, and turned the ball over on downs in USM territory twice.
Coming into this weekend, only two games (Kansas over West Virginia, FIU over Bryant) met a similar criteria as A&M-Arkansas, Old Dominion-Arkansas State and Southern Miss-Tulane.
In four of those games, not only did the team that scored first, led at halftime, out-rushed and out-passed the opponent lose the game because they lost the turnover battle, they lost the game because the opponent scored off a turnover.
Yet none were quite as dramatic as Jefferson's attempted 5-yard Superman leap-turned-98 yard fumble return.
Winning Box Scores:
- Rush for more yards: 246-67 (.786)
- Pass for more yards: 214-98 (.686)
- Score first: 223-90 (.712)
- Lead at halftime: 257-39 (.868)
- Win turnovers: 178-63 (.739)
- Win all five: 68-0 (1.000)
Additional notes:
* For those keeping score at home, the passing number does not match the rushing number because Kansas and Duke both passed for 324 yards.
* Of the 68 times a team has won all five categories (what we call a Quinfecta around these parts), 53 of them came when a team moved down in weight class: Power 5 against Group of 5, or FBS against FCS. Only twice has the smack down gone in the other direction: Weber State over Utah State on Sept. 10... and Middle Tennessee over Miami on Saturday.
* All four of Middle Tennessee's games thus far have been Quinfectas. The Blue Raiders had it done to them in their 44-7 loss at James Madison to open the season, then did the Quinfecta'ing in their wins over Colorado State (34-19) and Tennessee State (49-6).
* Washington has Quinfecta'd its past two opponents, both of them Power 5s: over Michigan State last week and Stanford on Saturday.
* Michigan State has been Quinfecta'd in their past two games. The Spartans were out-rushed 240-38, out-passed 268-202, lost turnovers 3-1, and did not score until 17 seconds remained in their 34-7 humiliation to Minnesota at Spartan Stadium on Saturday.