Texas Tech's OT comeback vs. Oklahoma was the most improbable win of the season

It happened.

It finally happened.

I've tracked every FBS game over the past two seasons -- 1,733 and counting -- across five statistics to see how often they correlate with winning: rushing yards, passing yards, scoring first, leading at halftime, and winning turnovers. Those 1,733 games have taught us that some correlate more than others: a halftime lead puts you on the path to victory around 80 percent of the time, while out-passing your opponent is closer to a coin flip (60 percent) than a certainty. 

But one formula has proven to be absolutely iron-clad, so long as your team could pull it off. 

Entering Saturday, teams that won all five categories (what we call a Quinfecta around these parts) were 274-0, and the vast majority of those 274 victories were not close. The average Quinfecta margin was around 30 points.

Until last week.

On Saturday night in Lubbock, Texas Tech pulled off the previously impossible.

The Red Raiders trailed 14-0 after one quarter, and 24-23 at the half. They were out-rushed, 210-163. They were out-passed, 462-436. They lost turnovers, 2-1. Yet they won the game anyway, the first of 285 teams in a similar situation to do so over this season and last.

What's more, this isn't a case of Texas Tech losing the box score in the aggregate but winning on a down-to-down basis. Oklahoma averaged 4.7 yards per carry to Tech's 3.6. Oklahoma averaged 11 yards on its 42 passes, Tech averaged 8.5 yards on its 51 passes. Texas Tech even lost points off turnovers, 10-7. 

Texas Tech trailed 24-6 with 6:25 to play in the first half, but pulled within 24-23 by halftime by mounting a 75-yard touchdown drive, nabbing an interception, turning that into a 29-yard touchdown drive, forcing a three-and-out, and then piecing together a 77-yard field goal drive in the half's final 48 seconds.

Texas Tech managed to pull off its particular trick in large part because its defense yielded 79 yards on two second-half drives that ultimately ended in turnovers on downs. The Red Raiders grabbed leads of 30-24, 38-31 and 45-38, but faced possible defeat when Tyler Shough fired an interception (Tech's second turnover of the game) at his own 31 with 5:16 remaining.

Tim DeRuyter's defense did not permit a first down, forcing a 42-yard field goal. The Red Raiders then mounted a drive that was successful but not too successful, stalling out at the OU 25 to set up Trey Wolff's overtime-forcing field goal with three seconds to play. Remember, if Texas Tech had thrown for 27 more yards, they would have won the passing statistic and thus lost this particular achievement.

Both teams moved only eight yards in overtime, but Oklahoma missed its field goals while Texas Tech made theirs, thereby giving the Red Raiders a 51-48 victory in which they failed to score first, trailed at halftime, were out-rushed, out-passed, and lost turnovers. 

The win completed Joey McGuire's first regular season, one in which Texas Tech defeated Texas and Oklahoma in the same season for the first time in school history.

And that win was just as improbable, measured by another metric.

In that game, Texas Tech trailed 31-17 deep into the third quarter and was out-rushed (151-148), but won because it went 2-0 in turnovers and went an improbable 6-of-8 on fourth down, which allowed the Red Raiders to have a gargantuan 100-60 advantage in total plays. 

The Oklahoma win completes a perfect circle for Texas Tech, at least as it has to do with this column. AD Kirby Hocutt dismissed Matt Wells, with a 5-3 record, after dropping a game to Kansas State it had no business losing. 

So, what does this mean for both program moving forward? 

For Oklahoma, is this a case of the program getting its lumps out of the way now only to come back bigger, stronger, faster, wiser in its second year under its new staff, or is this game evidence that Brent Venables is a Hall of Fame defensive coordinator but might not be head coach material?

For Texas Tech, does the win allow the program to whistle past the graveyard of what, according to the numbers, probably should've been a 5-7 season? Or is this game plus the Texas game prove that McGuire has an immeasurable amount of The Will To Win?

That's for each program to decide, but chances are it might be another 1,733 games before we see another Texas Tech 51, Oklahoma 48.

Week 13 Numbers:

-- Rush for more yards: 44-19
-- Pass for more yards: 35-28
-- Score first: 36-27
-- Lead at halftime: 42-18
-- Win turnovers: 39-10
-- Win all five: 10-1

Year to Date:

-- Rush for more yards: 636-202 (.759)
-- Pass for more yards: 504-331 (.604)
-- Score first: 572-267 (.681)
-- Lead at halftime: 634-161 (.797)
-- Win turnovers: 470-169 (.736)
-- Win all five: 138-1 (.993)