Nick Saban will not coach forever. We think.
But the man is now 72 years old, and so it's an annual story each spring when he confirms he's not retiring for the foreseeable future. The latest such announcement came, in all places, on Stephen A. Smith's podcast.
There, Saban also shared what will eventually push him into retirement.
“I basically love what I do,” Saban said, via AL.com. “I love the relationships with the players. I love trying to build a team with a group of people. That’s a lot of fun. I enjoy doing that.
“I am also very aware that I don’t want to ever ride the program down. In other words, there’s going to come a time when my age and my circumstance -- everybody is going to be able to tell somebody, ‘Well, he’s not going to be there. I mean, how long is he going to coach, until he’s 90?’ That will start to affect the program maybe in an adverse way. I don’t want to get there.
“I don’t ever want to be in this position where I don’t feel like I’m making a positive contribution to the program, because I can still do the work at a quality level that is making a contribution to the success of the organization.
“So, I’m not there yet. But all those things are factors that I would consider. Whenever the time comes -- it hasn’t come yet, and I enjoy doing what I’m doing.”
So, there's a lot to unpack there.
First of all, Saban tells us he will never retire because he's tired of coaching. He has no off-switch. The grind of The Process is what gets him out of bed in the morning, and so the idea of waking up with nothing on the agenda brings no appeal to him. Saban is going to coach for as long as he can.
But that brings us to our second point, which is a chicken-egg scenario.
Saban will coach for as long as he can keep Alabama a winning program, which means he will coach for as long as the families of top recruits believe he can do the job at a high level. As long as blue-chip recruits believe in Saban, Alabama will keep winning. And as long as Alabama continues to win, Saban will keep coaching.
If a rival recruiter were to squint really hard, he might be able to see the beginnings of a downturn coming for Saban's program.
Alabama dropped two games in each of the past two seasons, something that only happened once (2013-14) since the dynasty got up and running in 2008. If the Crimson Tide does not win the national championship in 2023, that will represent the first time in Saban's 17-year tenure that Alabama went three straight seasons without a national championship. Alabama will enter the fall a clear No. 2 behind Georgia in the SEC, and way-too-early Top 25s project the Tide to begin the season somewhere around No. 5. If that comes to pass, it would represent Alabama's lowest preseason ranking since 2009. The Tide will have to replace the best quarterback in program history, the most fearsome pass rusher in program history, and both coordinators.
Now let's take a step back and consider the absurdity of the above paragraph. Even in the "down years" of 2021-22, Alabama went 24-4, won an SEC title, won a Heisman Trophy, and played for a national title. The Tide's 2022 losses came on a field goal at the buzzer, and by one point in overtime. Those are dream seasons for 120 other programs.
Furthermore, "the market" clearly believes in Saban's ability to do the job at the level to which we're all accustomed. Alabama's 2023 signing class easily earned a No. 1 ranking, a 28-man haul that included a stupendous nine 5-stars and 18 4-stars. The recruiting industry bestowed 5-star status upon 32 players, and Alabama landed more than a quarter of them.
For as long as that continues to happen, Saban will never retire.
The Greatest of All-Time is never going to willingly cede his seat on the throne to someone else, the rest of the sport will have to take it from him. Which is the way it should be.