What now, Penn State?

Penn State has done the impossible. On Thursday night, the Nittany Lions completed a 16-game season in which the narrative around the program moved 0.0 inches.

Coming into this season, Penn State had the reputation of a program that won all the games it was supposed to, and none of the games it wasn't. Sixteen games later, Penn State won all of the games it was supposed to, and none of the games it wasn't.

Actually, scratch that last part. After opening as a 1.5-point underdog, Penn State flipped to a 1.5-point favorite hours before kickoff. The Nittany Lions were a national-best 13-0 as betting favorites entering the night, and 34-1 since 2022. 

Aside from the betting line, Penn State faced a Notre Dame team with significant injuries up and down the roster at Thursday's Orange Bowl. They led 10-0 late in the second quarter. They had the ball, twice, in a tie game late in the fourth quarter. The result of those possessions: a three-and-out, and then a back-breaking interception.

Drew Allar's interception, on 1st-and-10 at their own 28 with 33 seconds left, ended a season that is unlikely to repeat ever again.

To reach the Final Four, Penn State didn't have to beat Ohio State in the regular season, and didn't have to win the Big Ten. In the Playoff, Penn State drew SMU and Boise State in the first-round and quarterfinals, before facing a battered Notre Dame team in the semifinals.

It still wasn't enough to reach the national championship.

James Franklin falls to just 0-1 against Notre Dame, but now sits at 4-18 against the Midwest's Big Three: Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame. 

It can be argued that Penn State does not have the same resources as those three, but the gap is not so great that the Nittany Lions should win four of 22 tries.

While Penn State is 34-2 as a favorite since 2022, over that same span Franklin's team is 0-6 as an underdog. No FBS team has more attempts without a victory over that span. 

And with Thursday's loss, Franklin is now 1-15 at Penn State against the AP Top 5. Yes, the AP Top 5 will collectively have a winning record against every program -- that's what makes them the AP Top 5 -- but Maryland and Rutgers should be 1-15, not Penn State. 

As for the original question, what now? Should Penn State fire Franklin? Shut the program down, maybe take a few years off and try again? Obviously not.

But Thursday was a bitter, bitter reminder that this program has a ceiling made of iron, and it's one that now 11 seasons in, Franklin is unlikely to sledgehammer his way through. 

In the biggest of games, quarterback play seems consistently lacking for Penn State, and that was certainly the case Thursday night. Allar finished 12-of-23 for 135 yards and an interception, and the numbers don't even really do his night justice. Allar did not complete a pass to a Nittany Lion wide receiver all night, consistently overthrew open receivers in the first half, and benefitted from a controversial pass interference penalty that wiped away a bone-headed interception and eventually led to a Penn State touchdown. 

Under Franklin, Penn State has drifted toward quarterbacks who fit the prototypical NFL build -- Allar, Will Levis, Sean Clifford, Christian Hackenberg -- when the best QB he's had was Trace McSorley. Two-to-five inches shorter than his peers, McSorley had no NFL career but his talents were perfectly tailored to the college game. 

The closest thing Franklin has had to McSorley since McSorley was Beau Pribula, Allar's backup who has since transferred to Missouri. Franklin chose Allar over Pribula, and we'll see moving forward if that was the right decision. 

"(Allar) will learn from this and he'll be better for it, and so will we," Franklin said after the game. 

Perhaps a Tyler Warren- and Abdul Carter-less (assuming he turns pro) Penn State team will be better in 2025, but their path to the national title game will never be easier.