Last week, Scott took a look at the lines and thought to himself “easy money”. That was not the case this week as we all had to dig deep to find a pick we felt even somewhat comfortable with. With that said, here are our “Best Bets” of the week. Take them or leave them.
Zach: Texas A&M (-34.5) over SMU
My strategy has been pretty simple so far, and it’s worked out like Sex Panther: Sixty-six percent of the time, it works every time. I fully expect SMU to come out with an effort far surpassing what they showed against Baylor and North Texas, but what does that really mean? I watched their entire 45-0 loss to Baylor and much of their 43-6 loss at North Texas and – shocking opinion warning – they just don’t have a lot of talent, no matter who’s coaching. Even if SMU hits its stride offensively and scores 17 points, I don’t see them holding the Aggies under 52.
Pick I’ll wish I’d taken if this one goes wrong: Texas State and its ball-control offense (+13) at Illinois and its 90th-ranked rush defense.
Scott: Bowling Green +27 at Wisconsin.
I suspect the Badgers will win the game; but I can’t see them outpacing Bowling Green by 28 or more. Bowling Green’s offense was clicking against Indiana last week, reeling off 113 plays en route to 176 yards rushing and 395 yards passing…and 45 points. Wisconsin’s defense is better than Indiana’s but still, give me BGSU and the points.
Doug: Eastern Michigan +45 at Michigan State
I had a hard time with this one, because I don’t want to make it a habit to bet on struggling football teams. However, sitting at 1-2 against the spread on the year, I can recognize the need for a “win” when I see it. Here’s where my logic lies; the last time that Mark Dantonio scored 50+ points in a game was his 2007 debut when he put up 55 on UAB, and 45 point wins aren’t something Dantonio hangs his hat on. He’s just not the type of coach that’s going to run up the score in favor of imaginary “style points”… even if given the opportunity to improve the Spartans’ playoff resume. Based on my quick research, he’s never won a game in East Lansing by 45 points or more, and I don’t see that trend changing on Saturday afternoon.
This season: Scott (1-2), Doug (1-2), Zach (2-1)