#Nuggets: The College Football Playoff field is set. Now what?

Like a lot of you, I'm apprehensive about the coming 12-team version of the College Football Playoff. We were all raised on the idea that each team put its season on the line each time it stepped on the field. That what happened on Sept. 1 could determine who was playing on Jan. 1. That excellence coincided with having a 0 or a 1 in the loss column.

I feel queasy at the idea of a 3-loss team competing for the national championship. My stomach turns at the idea of a team shrugging off a loss in November. I mock NFL fans who plan their Sunday around catching the "big" game pitting 7-4 teams, and now worry I may soon become one. I find comfort in familiarity and fear change. 

But the Board of Managers for the College Football Playoff did not ask my opinion before expanding the tournament from four teams to a dozen. They didn't even send a courtesy text. 

And so with expansion bumped up from the distant 2026 to the not-at-all distant 2024. Expansion four years from now is like when, as a dude, learning your wife is due to deliver your first child eight months from now: you understand your life is going to change, but it's so far in the future you can't quite wrap your mind around it. For all you know, you'll be a totally different person by the time the baby arrives. Isn't it a bit presumptuous you'll still be you in eight months (or four seasons)? 

But a playoff expansion just two seasons from now? Everywhere you turn, you see signs of the upcoming baby: the bassinet in your room, the new-paint smell emanating from your nursery, the bump on your wife's belly. Suddenly it becomes hard to think about anything else. 

The weekend began with Utah kicking USC out of the Playoff, dragging them down the stairs and throwing the Trojans on the front lawn. Heading into the weekend, there was an argument that Ohio State, ranked No. 5 through 12 games, should not become the nation's 4th-best team because some other team clear across the country failed a test the Buckeyes didn't earn the right to take. 

That makes intuitive sense, but... well. It's even harder to argue a team is among the nation's four best when it loses to the same 3-loss team twice. And especially when the second loss is an ass kicking.

USC actually threatened to do the rear-kicking early. The Trojans had a 1st-and-goal leading 14-3 and forced a Utah fumble in its own territory on the ensuing possession, and turned those two opportunities into three combined points. A lead that could've been 28-3 was only 17-3, and by halftime the game was tied. 

USC was still within 27-24 early in the fourth quarter, but the final 10 minutes were a complete Ute landslide.

Turns out, having the nation's 119th-ranked yards per play defense is a bad thing.

Lincoln Riley has done terrific work in Year 1 in Los Angeles, but the trip to Vegas proved USC still has a ways to go. And he'll have time to contemplate necessary changes as he returns to the Metroplex for the Cotton Bowl, while Utah plays in its second straight Rose Bowl.

TCU proves its Playoff mettle in defeat. Ohio State may back in to the Playoff thanks to USC's loss, but Alabama is not getting in. Hopes may have been high after Deuce Vaughn ducked and dodged his way to a 44-yard touchdown run that put Kansas State up 28-17 with 11:27 to play, but the ensuing comeback was the Frogs' finest hour.

Max Duggan ran for 95 yards on an 8-play, 80-yard touchdown drive, so exhausted as he plunged into the end zone on an 8-yard run that he fell to all fours, completely out of breath, then somehow gathered himself enough to throw the game-tying 2-point conversion. 

Duggan completed only 50 percent of his 36 passes and may have cost his team the game with an ugly end zone interception, but he also nearly won his team the game -- especially on a 5-yard keeper in overtime where replay showed Duggan hit the ground at the 1-inch line, but Big 12 officials spotted at the 1-yard line. Kansas State's defense stuffed TCU on two successive runs, and with that won the Big 12 title. 

But there's no keeping a Frogs team that defeated every team it played, that went undefeated in regulation, whose only loss came by three points at a neutral site to a Top 10 team, is getting left out of the field, or even dropping below a team that was idle on Saturday.

With all that said, I believe this will be your 2022-23 College Football Playoff field on Sunday morning. I'll even give you the kick times.

-- Fiesta Bowl, 4 p.m. ET Dec. 31: (2) Michigan vs. (3) TCU
-- Peach Bowl, 8 p.m. ET Dec. 31: (1) Georgia vs. (4) Ohio State

But here's what the Playoff field would be if this were 2024. On Saturday, Kansas State's postseason destination was set regardless of the outcome: the Wildcats are headed to the Sugar Bowl.

But two years from now, K-State would play to either earn a first-round bye as a top-4 conference champion... or to perhaps watch the Playoff from their couch.

Remember, the 12-team field will be divided between the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large bids. The four highest seeds, and the first-round byes that accompany them, are reserved for conference champions.

Seeds are my best guesses as to how the committee would rank the teams, based on its rankings heading into the weekend. 

(1) Georgia
(9) Utah at (8) Tennessee

(4) Kansas State 
(12) Tulane at (5) TCU

(3) Clemson
(11) USC at (6) Ohio State

(2) Michigan
(10) Penn State at (7) Alabama

Quibble with the arrangement of the teams or the logic behind the 12-team playoff all you want. I won't fight you, and in many cases I'll agree. I'm not sure we really need to see Georgia-Tennessee again, either.

But here's what you can't argue: Championship Weekend in 2022 was fun. Championship Weekend in 2024 will be great. 

Tulane winning its first conference title of the 21st century was fantastic. 

Now imagine if the Green Wave get to play for a conference title.

The ACC Championship was for an Orange Bowl berth and nothing more. It was... nice. Two years from now, the winner gets to play in the Playoff.

And for everyone arguing that conference title games between contenders will be devoid of emotion, well, you didn't watch the Big 12 Championship. TCU and K-State were headed to the Playoff and the Sugar no matter what, but neither side competed like they were playing a meaningless game.

College football will be different two years from now. Different is scary. Different is some times worse, and I suspect there will be moments when we dislike a college football September feeling like an NFL September. But change can also be good, and I suspect we'll like November and December even better come 2024.

FRIES

Seen and Heard

Seen 

Here was the spot I referred to earlier. It's unfair to Kansas State to assume TCU automatically scores on a 3rd-and-goal at the 1-millimeter line, but it's unfair to TCU that they moved the ball a whole three feet back for no reason. 

If the computer did this against you in Madden, you'd rage quit. Incarnate Word quarterback Lindsey Scott, Jr., pulled this off in real life.

Have you ever seen a quarterback throw a pass that never left his hand?

Heard

Look, I understand Nick is doing his job and trying to give his team a shot. I get respect that. But this argument depresses me.

What's the point of the last 14 weeks if we let the 247Sports Team Composite Rankings, Mel Kiper's mock draft, and the Vegas sports book decide the national champion. Seriously, why even play?

Oh, and last I checked, Alabama was 6-6 against the spread this season.

The Super 16. Here's my final NFF-FWAA Super 16 ballot this season.

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. Ohio State
5. Tennessee
6. Alabama
7. Kansas State
8. Utah
9. USC
10. Clemson
11. Tulane
12. Washington
13. Oregon State
14. Penn State
15. Oregon
16. UCLA

Odds and Ends

a. Where is Clemson ranked today if Cade Klubnik starts all season long?

b. That question aside, Clemson has won seven ACC titles in eight seasons. That ain't easy. Congrats to Dabo and company.

c. In conference championship games, Big 12 teams ranked in the AP Top 5 are 9-7 against teams from outside the AP Top 5. Pac-12 teams in similar situations are 2-2. Teams from the other three Power 5 conferences are 28-8. 

d. 2022 teams that successfully defended conference championships: Utah, Michigan, and UTSA. Jeff Traylor's team ran away from North Texas on Friday night, 48-27, to win their second straight C-USA crown. The Roadrunners scored 97 points in those games, and Frank Harris went a combined 51-of-65 (78.5 percent) for 559 yards (8.6 per attempt) with six touchdowns against no interceptions while rushing for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Baller.

e. By my count, Michigan became the third Power 5 team to go 10-0 in conference play, joining 2019 Ohio State and 2020 Alabama. TCU came within three points of being the fourth.

f. Tulane will play in the Cotton Bowl, its first major bowl game since the 1939 season, thanks to a 45-28 win over UCF. The Green Wave led 24-7, watched UCF pull within 31-28, and then went 4-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, turnover on downs, 4-play, 46-yard touchdown drive to seal the win. That's championship football. 

g. Troy won its first Sun Belt championship game, and did so emphatically. The Trojans went up 31-0 on Coastal Carolina before coasting to a 45-26 victory. 

h. Tulane went from 2-10 to 11-2 and American champions in the course of a year.

i. Troy went from 5-7 to 11-2 and Sun Belt champions in the course of a year, with a rookie head coach.

j. The track record of Coaches After Word Breaks They're Interested In Another Job is a real one. It's impossible to separate Coastal's performance from Liberty's interest in Jamey Chadwell, same as it was impossible to divorce Liberty's 49-14 loss to New Mexico State from Hugh Freeze's departure for Auburn.

k. Speaking of New Mexico State, Jerry Kill's team is going bowling in Year 1 after beating Valparaiso 56-3 on Saturday. The 6-6 Aggies received a waiver from the NCAA to compete in the postseason with four FBS victories.

l. Buffalo secured a bowl bid with a 23-22 win over Akron on Friday afternoon. The Bulls needed a late touchdown to pull it off.

m. Toledo earned its second MAC championship under Jason Candle and its 11th overall with a 17-7 victory over Ohio.

n. Ohio fell to 0-5 in the MAC Championship with the loss. It's the most championship game appearances without a victory in college football; the Bobcats are still in search of their first conference title since 1968.

o. Home teams went 3-1 in conference title games, Boise State was the one. If you're Fresno State, it simply does not get any sweeter than winning a Mountain West title on Boise's blue turf. Jeff Tedford's Bulldogs pulled off a 28-16 win despite gaining only 245 yards of offense.

DESSERT

That's it for Nuggets and the 2022 college football season. Whether you're here every week or this is your first time through, I'm grateful to celebrate the world's greatest sport with you. 

Thank you for reading, let's do it again next season.