Saturday's Ohio State-Michigan game will be the most heated edition of college football's best rivalry. Before I explain my thesis, first let me prove it.
-- No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan will be the 13th time the Buckeyes and Wolverines face off as AP top-5 teams. Texas-Oklahoma is second with 10, but the burden is far lower for the Red River rivals given their game is in mid-October. "Hottest" rivalry is up for debate; "best" rivalry is not.
-- Technically speaking, the stakes are lower Saturday than previous editions given that the winner still has to go win the Big Ten Championship next week in Indianapolis. Previous editions, like the 1 vs. 2 game of 2006, directly handed the conference title trophy to the winner. But... c'mon. An opening drive field goal will be enough to beat Iowa next week. This is the Big Ten championship game.
All that aside, the personal stakes for both sides are off the charts. The outing of Connor Stalions upped the animosity to previously unseen levels.
Think about the narrative if Ohio State wins:
-- The 2021 and 2022 Michigan wins don't count (this is already happening to some degree), meaning the Wolverines wouldn't have beaten a good Ohio State team straight-up since 2003. The accomplishments of the Jim Harbaugh era will be washed away, and Michigan will head into an uncertain future largely back where they were in 2015: looking up at Ohio State, still pining for their first College Football Playoff win.
In the minds of many, Michigan isn't just playing for the 2023 Big Ten championship and a berth in the Playoff (with one win over a ranked team, the Wolverines don't have a prayer of sneaking in at 11-1), but to legitimize everything they've accomplished over the past three seasons.
If Michigan wins:
-- With everything out in the open, Ohio State has no excuses this year. Jim Harbaugh would've so surpassed Ryan Day that he wouldn't even need to be there to beat him. Ohio State would be 33-2 over the past three seasons against everyone else, but 0-3 against Michigan, dooming Day to become the modern-day John Cooper. Ohio State may have better skill players, but Michigan will be the tougher program.
Seriously, with a loss on Saturday, Ryan Day will become the most miserable coach with an .887 career winning percentage in the history of sports.
Furthermore, this game represents the end of an era in college football. From 1869 until now, college football has been a sport where a single loss could end your national championship hopes on the spot. For better or worse, that system ends after Dec. 2.
Ohio State-Michigan will be the final college football game where two undefeated teams need a victory to remain in the hunt for the national championship.
Oh yeah, the game should be pretty darn good, too.
The Michigan Stadium turf will see the nation's top two scoring defenses square off; no other team allows less than 12.4 points per game, but these teams are at 9.0 (Michigan) and 9.3 (Ohio State). Both teams can move the ball, too.
Here's where both teams rank in various efficiency metrics:
Michigan appears to have the stronger team top to bottom and the home-field advantage, but Ohio State has the best player on the field in wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr., and the better (and only) head coach.
The Athletic's Richard Deitsch projected as many as 20 million people will tune in at noon ET on Fox to see the spectacle. As well they should. We'll never see another regular season college football game like this one ever again.
As for the rest of the slate: I count 21 teams playing win-or-stay home games, three teams competing for two spots in the American Championship, four teams vying for two spots in the Mountain West, three for two in the Pac-12, one spot still up for grabs in the Sun Belt, and a whopping seven teams still in the running to reach the Big 12 Championship. From Tuesday night to early Sunday morning, teams across the nation are putting their seasons up for grabs in college football's final regular season weekend.
Overall, I count 53 games with something up for grabs.
*** For purposes of simplicity and clarity, this piece assumes a 6-6 record will be necessary to reach a bowl game. All rankings reflect Sunday's AP poll. ***
TUESDAY
-- Bowling Green at Western Michigan (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU): BG has improved in every (full) season under Scot Loeffler: from three wins in 2019, to four in 2021, to six last year, and the Falcons now sit at 6-5 with an opportunity for two more wins, here and in the TBD bowl game. BG hasn't won more than six games since 2015.
-- Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): EMU needs a win to extend its bowl streak to three. This would break a program record of, ahem, two, set in 2018-19.
WEDNESDAY
No games. Utilize this opportunity to reacquaint yourself with your family, perhaps do some housework (I'd recommend cleaning the baseboards). You've got lots of football watching ahead of you.
THURSDAY
-- No. 12 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): State won last year and has taken three of the last five. In fact, dating back to 1991, this is probably the most even rivalry in college football -- no side has won more than three in a row, and both have done so once. Ole Miss needs a victory to secure its second 10-win campaign in three years, while State needs a win to extend its season, period.
FRIDAY
-- TCU at No. 13 Oklahoma (noon ET, Fox): If OU wants a 15th and final Big 12 title, the Sooners more than likely need a win here, although the Big 12 notes they cannot win their way in nor those their way out on Friday. TCU needs a win to avoid becoming the first team since 2010 Texas to miss a bowl game the year following a national championship appearance.
-- No. 20 Iowa at Nebraska (noon ET, CBS): Iowa has already won the final Big Ten West championship, and thus will be the last chance for the division to win the league title game (see above). Having started 5-3, Nebraska must win to avoid missing a bowl game for a previously-unfathomable seventh straight season.
-- Miami at Boston College (noon ET, ABC): Officially, this game has no stakes; both teams are 6-5. Unofficially, Mario Cristobal needs a win to take a second straight 7-loss season off the table, and a victory can clinch Jeff Hafley's first winning season since his 2020 debut.
-- No. 23 Toledo at Central Michigan (noon ET, ESPNU): It's a win-or-stay home game for CMU, but arguably the biggest stakes reside on the visitor's sideline. Toledo is in search of its first undefeated MAC regular season since 1995 (the Gary Pinkel-led Rockets went 7-0-1) and are three wins away from their first AP Top 25 finish since 2001. In all likelihood, three more wins (Friday, MAC championship, bowl game) puts the Rockets firmly in the year-end Top 20, which would make this the program's best season since a No. 14 finish in 1971.
-- UTSA at No. 18 Tulane (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): One of two FBS games pitting defending conference champions... and it happens to be an AAC semifinal game.... and perhaps a preview of an immediate rematch in next week's AAC title game. I'll explain:
UTSA, Tulane and SMU are each 7-0. If SMU wins Saturday, this retroactively becomes a true semifinal game. But if SMU loses, the tiebreaker will come down to a combination of four computer rankings. At press time, Tulane was ahead of SMU, but SMU was ahead of UTSA. So, a UTSA win and an SMU loss likely gives us Tulane-UTSA in the Alamodome next week for the conference title. Oh, and whoever wins the American likely goes to a New Year's Six game. Tulane has won 10 straight AAC games, while UTSA has won 17 straight conference games dating back to the 2021 C-USA Championship. Pretty big game, this one.
-- Utah State at New Mexico (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): A win-or-stay home game for Utah State. New Mexico (4-7) cannot reach a bowl game, but a win improves what already stands as the Lobos' best season since 2016.
-- No. 10 Missouri at Arkansas (4 p.m. ET, CBS): Mizzou won't win the SEC East, but the Tigers can clinch their first 10-win season since their 2014 SEC East title and remain in the running for their first New Year's Six bowl since 2013, and their first AP Top 10 finish since '13. Mizzou is 7-2 in this game since joining the SEC.
-- Air Force at Boise State (4 p.m. ET, FS1): Boise State has fired Andy Avalos, but the Broncos could play in their sixth MW Championship with a victory. Air Force hasn't fired Troy Calhoun, and the Falcons could also play in the MW Championship with a win.
MW standings
UNLV -- 6-1
Air Force -- 5-2
Boise State -- 5-2
San Jose State -- 5-2
(SJSU and UNLV play in Vegas on Saturday.)
Air Force has only played in the MW title game once (2015), and can win a conference title and the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy (with some help from Navy next month) in the same season for the first time since 1998.
-- Texas Tech at No. 7 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): No fewer than 128 possibilities exist heading into the Big 12's final weekend, with seven of the conference's 14 teams still in contention -- including 5-3 Texas Tech. The picture gets significantly cleaner if Texas wins, clinching the No. 1 seed next week in Arlington, as well as the program's first undefeated home schedule since 2009.
This is the 73rd and final meeting in a series born in 1928, with animosity on both sides.
Tech is 7-31 in Austin all-time, but the Red Raiders would think much, much more about the eight than the 31 with a victory on Friday night.
-- No. 11 Penn State vs. Michigan State (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Penn State can finish off the least satisfying 10-2 season since the 2022 Penn State Nittany Lions (combined wins over ranked opponents among Penn State's 21 wins thus far: one) with a victory, while Michigan State can't turn the page to 2024 fast enough. As always, it'll be a fun time among happy people in America's playground, Detroit.
-- No. 15 Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (8:30 p.m. ET, Fox): The 128th and final scheduled edition of the Civil War, and what a war it'll be. Oregon State lost a shot at the final Pac-12 championship with last week's defeat to Washington, but the Beavers can still do their next favorite thing: ruin Oregon's season. Oregon needs a win to remain in the Playoff race, while Texas, Alabama and every other CFP hopeful roots furiously for the Beavers.
SATURDAY
-- Kentucky at No. 9 Louisville (noon ET, ABC): Jeff Brohm quickly righted plenty of wrongs in his Louisville debut, and the next item on the list is winning the Governor's Cup for the first time since 2017. A Cardinals win means Louisville goes to the ACC Championship at 11-1, facing a Florida State team without QB1 Jordan Travis. They've got to win this one first, though, against a Kentucky team looking to avoid a 1-6 finish to their 5-0 start.
-- Texas A&M at No. 14 LSU (noon ET, ESPN): How funny would it be if A&M snapped its 2-year road losing streak in its first road game post-Jimbo? LSU is 5-0 against the Aggies since A&M joined the SEC, and only one was within 10 points. LSU will look to pile points on points as Jayden Daniels guns for the program's second Heisman Trophy in five years.
-- Indiana at Purdue (noon ET, BTN): Neither team is going bowling, and it's quite possibly Tom Allen's final game at Indiana. Purdue leads the Old Oaken Bucket rivalry 76-42-6, with wins in four of the last five.
-- UConn at UMass (noon ET, ESPN+): A de facto bowl game between teams that are a combined 5-17, UMass leads this series, born in 1897, 38-36-2, but UConn has won 15 of the past 23.
-- Houston at UCF (noon ET, FS1): It's the 11th game in a series born in 2005, and the third different conference in which the Cougars and Knights have done battle. UCF needs a win to extend their season, while Orlando on Thanksgiving Saturday is Houston's bowl trip.
-- Navy at SMU (noon ET, ESPN2): SMU is in the American Championship with a win, its first and final before joining the ACC next season. If UTSA happens to beat Tulane on Friday, the Mustangs' time in the AAC is all but done with a loss here. Navy needs a win here or against Army to reach a bowl.
-- Troy at Southern Miss (noon ET, ESPNU): Troy has at least two more games ahead having already won the Sun Belt West, but the Trojans can clinch back-to-back 10-win seasons with a dub.
-- Northern Illinois at Kent State (noon ET, ESPN+): A win-or-stay home game for NIU.
-- Miami (Ohio) at Ball State (noon ET, CBS Sports Network): Miami has already won the MAC East, but a win gives the RedHawks their first 10-win regular season since Ben Roethlisberger's senior season. Big Ben is 41.
-- Florida Atlantic at Rice (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+): In a meeting of two of the three Owls in the American, Rice needs a win to reach a bowl game.
-- Wake Forest at Syracuse (2 p.m. ET, CW): Dino Babers has already been dismissed, but the Orange can still reach a bowl with a victory.
-- Georgia State at Old Dominion (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+): A win-or-stay home game for Old Dominion.
-- Colorado at No. 22 Utah (3 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network): And after all that, Coach Prime's first season ends in a noon (local time) Pac-12 Network game on Pac-12 Network that decides whether or not CU finishes alone in last place in the conference. The Buffs enter their final Pac-12 game at 28-83 in conference play.
-- ULM at Louisiana (3 p.m. ET, ESPN+): A win-or-stay home game for Louisiana. The Cajuns are 12-3 in this game since 2008, but the Warhawks won last year's game.
-- San Jose State at UNLV (3 p.m. ET): UNLV is alone in first place, but the 6-1 Rebels have not clinched their first MW Championship appearance. Win, and the Rebels host next week's game. Lose, and it goes to a computer formula (though the Rebels are still likely in.) San Jose State requires a victory and some help from the computers.
-- No. 8 Alabama at Auburn (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): What's the college football record for greatest variance displayed in two consecutive games, and would it surprise anyone if Auburn set it? Fresh off losing to New Mexico State, Auburn looks to move to 4-2 at home against Alabama since 2013. Alabama looks to complete the sixth 8-0 SEC regular season of the Nick Saban era.
-- No. 16 Arizona at Arizona State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Arizona needs a win and an Oregon State victory over Oregon to reach its first Pac-12 Championship since 2014. ASU may be heavy underdogs at home, but the Sun Devils are 16-8 in the Territorial Cup since 1999.
-- Vanderbilt at No. 25 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Tennessee searches for its 80th win over Vanderbilt, owning a 79-33-5 advantage in a rivalry it started 2-19-3 against.
-- BYU at No. 21 Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Oklahoma State is in the Big 12 Championship with a win... and a Texas win on Friday. If the Longhorns lose, things get complicated. If the Cowboys lose, they're all but done. BYU needs a win to extend its season.
-- Northwestern at Illinois (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Illinois needs a win to reach a bowl game. The Illini have won two straight, and seek their first 3-game winning streak over the Wildcats since 1988-90.
-- Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1): A win-or-stay home game for Minnesota. In FBS's oldest and most even rivalry, the Gophers' 2-game winning streak evened the ledger at 62-62-8; Minnesota hasn't beaten Wisconsin three straight times since taking four straight from 1984-87.
-- No. 22 Liberty at UTEP (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): Liberty looks to finish off the first 12-0 season in school history.
-- Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): With James Madison ineligible, App State needs a win and a Coastal Carolina loss to reach its fourth Sun Belt Championship.
-- No. 24 James Madison at Coastal Carolina (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Coastal needs to beat JMU to win its second straight Sun Belt East crown.
-- Arkansas State at Marshall (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): A win-or-stay home game for Marshall.
-- Washington State at No. 4 Washington (4 p.m. ET, Fox): Washington can complete its first perfect regular season since winning the 1991 national title, and a perfect regular season will be required to remain in the hunt for the 2023 title. For Washington State, a win extends their season and ruins Washington's. U-Dub is 11-2 in the Apple Cup since 2009.
-- No. 5 Florida State at Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Florida State is 11-0, but in many ways their season begins anew after the Jordan Travis injury. Both teams should put out inspired efforts: FSU to remain in the CFP top four, Florida to extend its season.
-- No. 17 Notre Dame at Stanford (7 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network): Neither team's season materially changes with a win or a loss here, but this game is still notable in that it'll be the last football game ever televised by Pac-12 Network. I'm told they put out a good product. You and I will never know.
-- West Virginia at Baylor (7 p.m. ET, FS1): Picked to finish 14th in preseason, WVU is among the gaggle of teams still alive for the Big 12 title. They'd need Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Oklahoma to all lose, but stranger things have happened.
-- South Alabama at Texas State (7 p.m. ET, NFL Network): It may not sound like much, but a win gives Texas State a program-record seven regular season victories.
-- No. 1 Georgia at Georgia Tech (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Did you know Georgia Tech hasn't beaten Georgia at home this century? All four of Tech's since the turn of the century have come in Athens; UGA has won 11 straight since last losing in 1999. Georgia is two wins shy of becoming the first FBS team to win 30 straight games since 2000-02 Miami.
-- Kansas at Cincinnati (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Kansas looks to secure its first 8-win season since 2008.
-- Clemson at South Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): A win-or-stay home game for South Carolina, who also seeks consecutive wins over Clemson for the first time since taking five straight from 2009-13. Carolina has lost four straight to Clemson in its own building.
-- Charlotte at South Florida (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): A win-or-stay home game for South Florida.
-- North Carolina at NC State (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network): This is probably your best bet for entertaining football in the late window. Both teams are gunning for 9-3 seasons in what could easily be Drake Maye's final game as a Tar Heel. NC State has won the last two by seven combined points; last year's game saw UNC force overtime on the final play of regulation, but NC State pulled it out in double OT.
-- Iowa State at No. 19 Kansas State (8 p.m. ET, Fox): Farmaggedon carries Big 12 title implications, with defending champ K-State tied for second with the Oklahoma schools and Iowa State somehow still alive at 5-3. Iowa State leads the all-time series 52-50-4 and has taken two of the last three, but K-State won last year in Ames.
-- Cal at UCLA (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): In the final scheduled game between these ACC and Big Ten stalwarts, Cal needs a win to avoid its fourth straight bowl-less season.
-- Colorado State at Hawai'i (11 p.m. ET): One last win-or-stay home game, this time for Colorado State. If the Rams don't win, at least they're already in Hawai'i.