It's Week 1 of college football's new era. A 12-team bracket will be unveiled on Dec. 8, and for the first time in this sport's 150+ year history, every team (in theory) has a realistic path to a national championship. What's more, a 10-2 season would leave most Power 4 teams feeling optimistic come Selection Sunday; the talk of July that Florida, given their murder's row schedule, may even get in at 8-4.
But college football is still college football.
Ask Florida State if the promise of Dec. 8 made last Saturday any easier to swallow, as the 10th-ranked Seminoles lost outright as touchdown-and-a-half favorites to Georgia Tech before two national audiences. Suddenly, a team that had won 19 games in a row has some of the worst vibes in the sport, having been snubbed from the Playoff, blown out in the Orange Bowl, then pantsed in Ireland.
Life comes at you fast, and it'll come faster this weekend for some teams than others.
Florida-Miami and USC-LSU will be relief for the winners, and pure misery for the losers. We don't like to focus on the negative here, but the participants No. 19 Miami at Florida (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) and No. 23 USC vs. No. 13 LSU in Las Vegas (7:30 p.m. ET Sunday, ABC) each have far more to lose with a defeat than they stand to gain with a victory.
Let's break it down here. A loss...
Florida: Drops to 11-15 in the Billy Napier era (7-15 against Power 4 teams), and extends Florida's overall losing streak to six games, making the ongoing ski the program's longest since 2013. Oh, and they still have the nation's hardest schedule ahead of them, beginning in earnest with No. 20 Texas A&M on Sept. 14. But at least FSU lost last week!
Miami: Drops to 12-14 in the Mario Cristobal era (7-13 against Power 4 teams) and drops the Canes to 1-5 in their last six games. But at least FSU lost last week!
USC: After going 17-3 to begin the Riley era, a loss drops USC to 2-6 in its last eight games, equaling the 2-6 stretch under interim head coach Donte Williams to end the 2021 season and matching the worst 8-game stretch of the Clay Helton era.
LSU: Amazingly, a loss extends LSU's season-opening losing streak to five games, tying a program record. (The longest streak in the SEC outside of LSU's: 1.) The streak would have come against USC, UCLA, Mississippi State, and two losses to Florida State.
There's also a meta-narrative attached to the Trojans-Tigers showdown in the desert. On the night of Nov. 27, 2021, following a loss to Oklahoma State that knocked his Sooners out of both the Big 12 Championship and the College Football Playoff, speculation swirled like Oklahoma winds that Lincoln Riley was about to do the unthinkable and leave OU for LSU.
The following day, Riley left... for USC. Three days later, LSU hired Brian Kelly. The rumor, spread by those who sought to besmirch Riley, was that he left Oklahoma and/or spurned LSU because he didn't want to take on the all-important SEC grind. Sunday is an opportunity for Riley to tell his haters to shove it.
"If you're afraid of a challenge, you don't take the head coaching job at OU when you're 33 years old. You don't come out here to USC and do this," Riley said later. "The people that know us and know us well know we embrace those things."
Notre Dame-Texas A&M is a massive opener for both sides. My colleague John Brice caught my ear when he said recently that No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) is the biggest yet of Marcus Freeman's 28 games leading the Fighting Irish. I asked him to explain:
"It's quite simple, really: Freeman needs to win this game to assure he then coaches in bigger games -- this season. The Irish volunteered to select CFP parameters in which they can never earn a first-round bye because they do not play in a conference. Thus, Notre Dame does not just want but expects to host an opening-round CFP tilt in December.
"The Irish have stability A&M does not yet have under Mike Elko, and they have two of the highest-paid coordinators in college football with Mike Denbrock running the offense and Al Golden the defense, plus a veteran defense full of NFL prospects and arguably the top QB out of the transfer portal in Riley Leonard.
"Must. Win."
So, there you have it. From JB's lips to Freeman's ears.
On the other side, Elko walks into perhaps the most pressure-cooked opener in recent memory. His hiring was at once an immediate and long-term play: Elko has just 25 games of head coaching experience so he's still growing into the head coach he'll eventually become, but at the same time you don't hire your defensive coordinator from three seasons ago to not win now. Elko was heavily involved in constructing the infamous 2022 recruiting class, a third-year group that now serves as the bedrock of the team.
Both teams have realistic paths to the Playoff, but it's incredibly difficult to see either side getting there without a win over the other.
As for the game on the field, the winner of the game will be the side that scratches out a more consistent running game than the opposition. Take the under.
What do we expect out of Georgia-Clemson? That's not a rhetorical question. There was a time when Georgia was trying to catch up to Clemson. Specifically: Sept. 4, 2021, when No. 5 Georgia beat No. 3 Clemson. That night in Charlotte was the beginning of the beginning for Georgia's dynasty, and the beginning of the end for a Clemson program that had made six straight Playoffs but hasn't come particularly close at returning in the three seasons since.
Now, No. 1 Georgia heads to its home away from home at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as a two touchdown favorite over No. 14 Clemson. Expecting an actual victory seems unfair for Clemson, but how much is required for Dabo's team to emerge with a moral victory?
ADDITIONAL GAMES (All times Eastern.)
THURSDAY
-- Jackson State at ULM (7 p.m., ESPN+): It's the debut of the Bryant Vincent era of Warhawk football, and ULM's best shot at a win in the rough-and-tumble Sun Belt.
-- Lafayette at Buffalo (7 p.m., ESPN+): Pete Lembo's 178th game as a head coach is also his first since Nov. 24, 2015, when he concluded a run of 15 consecutive seasons leading Lehigh, Elon and Ball State.
-- North Carolina at Minnesota (8 p.m., Fox): Thursday night openers have become tradition in Minneapolis -- something the Gophers have done since 2012 (2020 excluded). The Gophers are 9-2 in these Thursday night openers, with losses only to No. 2 TCU in 2015 and to No. 4 Ohio State in 2021.
-- FCS No. 2 North Dakota State at Colorado (8 p.m., ESPN): I can't wait to watch this game, and I can't wait to see who Deion blames if the Buffaloes lose.
Also, keep the three Hs in mind as you look to spot the difference between the Bison and the Buffaloes: home, hump, and horns.
-- Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN+): Jon Sumrall's Green Wave debut.
-- Sacramento State at San Jose State (10 p.m., truTV): After 192 games as the head coach at Navy, Ken Niumatalolo head-coaches his first game since leaving the Naval Academy.
FRIDAY
-- Florida Atlantic at Michigan State (7 p.m., BTN): Jonathan Smith makes his debut leading the Spartans.
-- Elon at Duke (7:30 p.m., ACC Network): Manny Diaz's first game as the chief Blue Devil.
-- TCU at Stanford (9:30 p.m., ESPN): In a season that will ask the Cardinal to make three trips to the Atlantic coast (or close enough) and Notre Dame, you'd better win your home and quasi-home games (the Trees close at Cal and San Jose State). Consecutive trips to Syracuse and No. 14 Clemson await at the end of the month, and a 2-0 start (Stanford hosts Cal Poly next week) feels imperative. Sonny Dykes, meanwhile, needs to show that 2022 was closer to the norm under his tenure than last year's 5-7 flop.
SATURDAY
-- No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia (noon, Fox): In a series that once happened semi-consistently, Penn State makes its first trip to Morgantown since 1992. The Nittany Lions lead this series 49-9-2, and WVU's most recent win came in 1988. Needless to say, this feels must-win for James Franklin and his two new coordinators.
-- Illinois State at No. 25 Iowa (noon, BTN): Thanks to his 1-game suspension, it's Iowa's first game without Kirk Ferentz since Nov. 21, 1998, and its last until Sept. 2, 2047.
-- Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt (noon, ESPN): I admire Vanderbilt's resolve to continue playing Power 4 non-conference opponents considering their plight in the SEC, but I question the logic. Vandy hasn't won a September non-conference game against a power conference foe since 2017.
-- FCS No. 1 South Dakota State at No. 17 Oklahoma State (2 p.m., ESPN+): If it happens, a South Dakota State win would set the record for "Least surprising FCS win over AP Top 25 team" in college football history. OSU is an 8-point favorite; I'll take the points.
-- Akron at No. 2 Ohio State (3:30 p.m., CBS): At 49.5 points, this might set the record for the largest point spread ever for a game to air on network television.
-- FIU at Indiana (3:30 p.m., BTN): Curt Cignetti makes his debut as the Head Hoosier.
-- UTEP at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., Fox): Nebraska's 4-season opening losing streak matches LSU's, which surely ends here as UTEP makes its debut under 34-year-old head coach Scotty Walden. This is also the debut of franchise recruit Dylan Raiola.
-- Ohio at Syracuse (3:30 p.m., ACC Network): Fran Brown makes his debut as the head Orange.
-- Kennesaw State at UTSA (3:30 p.m., ESPN+): This isn't Kennesaw State's first game against an FBS team, but it is the program's (which launched in 2015) first game as an FBS team.
-- Miami (Ohio) at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN): Worth keeping in the clicker rotation if nothing else than catching views of Lake Michigan in the most picturesque set up east of the Rockies.
-- Boise State at Georgia Southern (4 p.m., ESPNU): Shoutout to Boise State, who has traveled to the Southeast 11 times in 13 (full) seasons. Clay Helton's tenure has seen wins over Nebraska in Lincoln and over a ranked James Madison, but he sits at 12-14 overall and carries a 5-game losing streak into 2024.
-- North Texas at South Alabama (5 p.m., ESPN+): Major Applewhite is back in the saddle after going 15-10 in two seasons as the head coach at Houston.
-- Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State (6 p.m., ESPN+): Jeff Lebby's first game as Mississippi State's head coach, and also his first game as anybody's head coach.
-- Idaho State at Oregon State (6:30 p.m., The CW): A former All-Pac-10 (RIP) linebacker, it's Trent Bray's first game as a head coach at his alma mater, and his first game as a head coach, period.
-- Western Kentucky at No. 5 Alabama (7 p.m., ESPN): Alabama hasn't lost an opener since 2001, which was also the first game of the Dennis Franchione regime. Kalen DeBoer won't be Nick Saban, but he's also trying to avoid being Coach Fran, at least on Saturday night.
-- UNLV at Houston (7 p.m., FS1): It's Willie Fritz's first game at Houston but his 325th as a head coach, in a 32-year head coaching career spanning six institutions of higher learning.
-- Tennessee Tech at Middle Tennessee (7 p.m., ESPN+): Derek Mason makes his debut as the Bluest Raider.
-- Nevada at Troy (7 p.m., ESPN+): Jeff Choate debuted as Nevada's head coach in last week's loss to SMU, so now he takes his second crack at his first win against Gerad Parker, who makes his Troy debut and also is searching for his first win, period, after going 0-6 as Purdue's interim in 2016.
-- Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan (7:30 p.m., NBC): Sherrone Moore coached four games for the maize and blue last season, but only one (the Bowling Green game) counted toward his record; the 3-game suspension to close the regular season went to Jim Harbaugh. Nevertheless, Moore makes his full-time debut against a Fresno State team playing under interim head coach Tim Skipper, who went 1-0 last season filling in for Jeff Tedford.
-- UCLA at Hawai'i (7:30 p.m., CBS): UCLA is not in LA, but in Honolulu to play its first game under new head coach DeShaun Foster.
-- Georgia State at Georgia Tech (8 p.m., ACC Network): It's the first meeting of schools whose campuses lie just 1.7 miles apart, per Google Maps. In fact, Bobby Dodd Stadium is just a couple blocks further (in the opposite direction) from GSU campus as its own home stadium. After going 85-21 as the head coach at Carver-Columbus High School, Dell McGee makes his collegiate head coaching deubt.
-- Texas A&M-Commerce at San Diego State (8 p.m., truTV): After going 24-31 in five seasons at Kent State, a one-season detour in Boulder has Sean Lewis debuting at one the plum jobs in all of the Group of 5.
-- Robert Morris at Utah State (8 p.m.): Nate Dreiling, a 33-year-old who was a position coach at the FCS level in 2021, coaches his first game as Utah State's long-term interim after the mid summer dismissal of Blake Anderson.
-- James Madison at Charlotte (8 p.m., ESPNU): Bob Chesney carries his 111-46 lifetime record, built at Salve Regina, Assumption and Holy Cross, into the FBS, where JMU takes on Charlotte after an "F-minus" training camp.
-- Southeast Missouri State at New Mexico State (9 p.m., ESPN+): Tony Sanchez, who went 120-26 as a high school head coach in California and Nevada, takes his first chance at his second crack of college head coaching after going 20-40 at UNLV.
-- New Mexico at No. 21 Arizona (10:30 p.m., ESPN): Bronco Mendenhall lost his UNM debut last week to Montana State, and now Brent Brennan coaches his first game as the Chief Wildcat.
-- Wyoming at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., FS1): In his 31st year in coaching, Jay Sawvel coaches his first game as a head coach at any level.
-- Weber State at Washington (11 p.m., BTN): Washington begins its "defense" of a CFP runner-up finish with almost an entirely new roster, in a new conference, led by a new coaching staff headed by Jedd Fisch.
MONDAY
-- Boston College at No. 10 Florida State (7:30 p.m., ESPN): The 28th and final head coach to make his debut, Bill O'Brien coaches his 131st game and his first at BC.
A brief ๐งต of likely meaningless stats ahead of Week 1 games...
โ ๐ซ๐ ฐ๏ธโ๏ธ๐ (@ADavidHaleJoint) August 28, 2024
BC averaged 6.1 yards-per-carry outside the tackles last season, 2nd-best in the ACC. FSU allowed nearly 7 yards-per-rush outside the tackles against GT in Week 0.