Every game is supposed to be a big one when you're Notre Dame, but this one is bigger. By my count, Notre Dame is 3-18 in "showdown" games since 1998 -- contests where both teams enter with AP Top 10 rankings, as they will Saturday. Ohio State is 31-18 in such games.
What does that mean for Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)? Everything and nothing.
This is the type of game Ohio State goes on the road and wins. This is the type of game Notre Dame finds a way to lose.
But when among those 21 contests has Notre Dame had the better quarterback? The more explosive offense? Feels like it's been a while, hasn't it?
Kyle McCord performed like one expects of a Ryan Day quarterback in No. 6 Ohio State's 63-10 destruction of Western Kentucky last week (19-of-23 for 318 yards and 3 TDs), but No. 9 Notre Dame's Sam Hartman is third in the nation in passing efficiency. The Wake Forest transfer is scorching hot, hitting 71.1 percent of his passes for 11.8 yards per attempt with 13 TDs and 0 INTs.
Irish running back Audric Estime leads the nation in yards per carry (8.27) among all players with at least 41 carries... and he has 63.
Notre Dame is out-producing Ohio State per play and per drive. If I had to bet my life on one offense scoring a touchdown in crunch time, it might be the Fighting Irish. Might be. Which is a major step forward from every showdown game in recent Notre Dame history, when the answer would have been "definitely would not."
Notre Dame has been really good over its first four games, so here's an opportunity to pay off that performance by being better than Ohio State at home for 60 minutes.
Two dynastic runs might really end on Saturday. It's been six seasons since Alabama and Clemson met for a national title. It's been two seasons since either one of them won it, and neither team even reached the Playoff last season.
Perhaps in the future, with the benefit of hindsight, the time and place of the official end of Alabama and Clemson's dynasties will be remembered as some point before now. But, in the here and now, Saturday could be the day the nation collectively looks at Tuscaloosa and Clemson... and then moves its gaze to the next hot thing.
Clemson has won 25 straight home ACC games and seven straight, home or away, against Florida State. A win Saturday restores order in the ACC and likely sends Dabo to do some crowing to the media in the post-game press conference. But a loss? Clemson would be eliminated from the College Football Playoff for the third straight year, but more immediately it would force the Tigers into a serious uphill climb to even reach the ACC Championship. Clemson would be 0-2 in conference play and put them at 1-4 against Power 5 competition in their last five games.
Full stop: the idea of the ACC running through Death Valley would be over. Done. Caput.
Alabama's death pronouncement would not be so severe given that they'd be just 0-1 in conference play, but the Tide would be out of the Playoff hunt and thereby securing the first 3-season title drought of the 17-year Nick Saban era.
The Tide would be 2-2 on the season and 0-2 against Power 5 competition. Furthermore, after applying total dominion over his former assistants, Saban would watch himself be surpassed by his former pupils. Kirby Smart's program has fully surpassed his. He lost his most recent game to Steve Sarkisian. Jimbo Fisher beat him in 2021, and nearly did so again in 2022. Entering Saturday, Lane Kiffin clearly thinks he has a read on Saban's defense.
Now, I have much more faith in Florida State's ability to win at Clemson than I do Ole Miss's chances at Bryant-Denny. Ole Miss has been in this spot before; No. 12 Ole Miss lost to No. 1 Alabama 42-21 in 2021, and started 7-0 last season before finishing 8-5. Alabama has won seven straight against Ole Miss and is 54-10-2 all-time.
But I'd take FSU's quarterback over Clemson's. I'd take Ole Miss's over Alabama's. I'd certainly take Ole Miss's offensive line over Bama's.
The Coach Prime Show, Episode 4. After last week's circus at Folsom Field, No. 19 Colorado opens Pac-12 play at No. 10 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). The Buffaloes will be without Travis Hunter, which seems less than ideal against Bo Nix (77.6 percent completions, 9.1 ypa, 8 TDs vs. 0 INTs)
Never before has a team captured the nation's attention for a solid month like CU has. Again: Colorado. A team that, for all intents and purposes, did not exist a year ago.
At some point, the audience for a Buffaloes game will go down, after growing each of the past three weeks. CU-Oregon is up against Bama-Ole Miss in the same time slot.
At some point, Colorado will lose a game. After winning as a 3-touchdown underdog against TCU and nearly losing as a 3-touchdown favorite against Colorado State last week, Colorado is once again a 3-touchdown underdog in Eugene.
So maybe that's this week. None of us should be surprised if so.
But if Colorado wins and welcomes USC to Boulder next week? Look out.
We don't know what Oklahoma is yet, but the numbers absolutely love the Sooners. In out-scoring Arkansas State, SMU and Tulsa 167-28, OU has moved to No. 5 in FEI, No. 4 in F+, No. 2 in ESPN's FPI, and No. 1 in its efficiency metric.
FPI gives the Sooners a 50.5 percent chance to make the Playoff, and its odds to win the national title are second only to Ohio State's. Kelley Ford has moved Oklahoma from a projected 5.5-point underdog against Texas in a hypothetical Big 12 championship into a 3.5-point favorite, despite Texas winning by 10 points in Tuscaloosa.
Are the computers seeing something the human eye hasn't (OU has moved "only" from 20 to 16 in the AP poll) or are the Sooners simply really good at pummeling overmatched opponents? We'll begin to find out against a Cincinnati team that ranks eighth in rushing and is as strong up front defensively as anyone in the Big 12.
Additional Games:
-- Rutgers at No. 2 Michigan (noon ET, BTN): There are seven games this weekend pitting undefeated teams, and Rutgers is involved in one of 'em. In fact, the Knights were more impressive in their non-conference slate that Michigan, defeating two Power 5 teams by 17 and 19 points.
-- Auburn at Texas A&M (noon ET, ESPN): The Miami loss behind them, this is an opportunity for Jimbo Fisher to begin the most wide-open SEC West race ever with a home win, and an opportunity for Hugh Freeze to begin his first SEC season with a statement win.
-- SMU at TCU (noon ET, FS1): It's the Battle for the Iron Skillet, and one of the last before the series goes on hiatus after 2025. Sonny Dykes has a personal 3-game winning streak, having won his last two at SMU and last year's meeting with TCU. The Frogs had a nice bounce-back performance at Houston following the Colorado loss in the opener; can they continue playing solid defense heading into the heart of Big 12 play?
-- No. 22 UCLA at No. 11 Utah (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox): It's the expected 2023 debut of Cam Rising, and if so it's perhaps the biggest age spread between two starting quarterbacks this season in Utah's sixth-year signal-caller and UCLA's true freshman Dante Moore. Moore is fifth in the nation in passing efficiency, but a trip to Utah will level up the difficulty compared to Coastal Carolina, San Diego State and North Carolina Central.
-- Maryland at Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Maryland dominated a non-conference schedule of Towson, Charlotte and Virginia. Michigan State was dominated at home by Washington last week. This will be a "water finds its level" game.
-- BYU at Kansas (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): There's a ton of competition in this time slot, but keep this game in your clicker rotation. BYU should be riding high off last week's win at Arkansas, while every KU home game with Jalon Daniels under center is worth watching.
-- UTSA at No. 23 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): It's UTSA's first game against an out-of-state SEC opponent, and a chance for the 2-time Conference USA champions to reverse a 1-2 start. Tennessee returns home after last week's dud of a loss at Florida to what should be a challenging home game. Does Nico Iamaleava get any run in this game?
-- Oklahoma State at Iowa State (4 p.m. ET, FS1): First team to 10 wins? Neither team reached double digits last week in losses to South Alabama and Ohio, respectively.
-- Arkansas at No. 12 LSU (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): This will be the 69th meeting of the Hogs and the Tigers, and the first in September. Coming off the loss to BYU, this begins a run of four straight games away home, against No. 12 LSU, Texas A&M, No. 15 Ole Miss and No. 13 Alabama.
-- Sam Houston at Houston (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+): I'll have to get in touch with the folks at the Elias Sports Bureau to double check this, but I believe this is the first FBS game pitting two universities ultimately named after the same person. Who do we think the first (and third!) president of the Republic of Texas is rooting for?
-- No. 14 Oregon State at No. 21 Washington State (7 p.m. ET, Fox): The Beavers and Cougars are opponents on the field on Saturday, and allies elsewhere. Who knows what conference OSU and WSU are in this time next year, but one thing's certain -- the winner should definitely get a Pac-2 championship trophy on Saturday night.
-- No. 24 Iowa at No. 7 Penn State (7:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Brian Ferentz's offense has been a fun side story so far this year, but it gets real on Saturday. The Big Ten West is extremely winnable for the Hawkeyes, so long as they score enough points. Can the Hawkeyes get to 24 in a Death Valley White Out?
-- UCF at Kansas State (8 p.m. ET, FS1): The worm turned on K-State quickly. Not only did the defending Big 12 champions lose on a 61-yard buzzer-beater field goal last week at Mizzou, they lost start mike linebacker Daniel Green for the year and could be without their starting quarterback and running back for the beginning of their conference championship defense.