Well, it's here.
Texas opened spring practices on Monday, marking the first time Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning hit the field as teammates slash competitors. Anticipating the football watching public's inability to handle this particular dynamic with any amount of restraint and nuance, I sent this dumb tweet on Monday morning.
After one throw I have Arch Manning beating out Quinn Ewers for the QB1 job at Texas.
— Zach Barnett (@zach_barnett) March 6, 2023
Will update after each throw from now through September. https://t.co/cF9EStferM
By Monday afternoon, none other than Adam Schefter was taking notice of the quarterback room in Austin.
Texas HC Steve Sarkisian said today that sophomore Quinn Ewers and freshman Arch Manning will compete for the team’s starting quarterback job, via @dwil:https://t.co/jcX6cY15Rv
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 6, 2023
There have been talented quarterback rooms in college football before, plenty of them. But none have ever had the dynamic of Ewers and Manning. Both young men are essentially industries unto themselves.
Ewers rose to prominence as a sophomore at one of the glamour programs in all of high school football. Monte Burke, best-selling biographer of Nick Saban, profiled him while he was still at Southlake Carroll. Ewers memorably and controversially left Carroll a year early to enroll at Ohio State and became one of college athletics' first NIL millionaires. In the process, he went from being the No. 1 overall player in the class of 2022 to... the No. 1 overall player in the class of 2021. His trademark blond mullet became a brand before he ever touched the field.
And he's the other guy in this quarterback derby.
Arch Manning is, ahem, Arch Friggin Manning. His commitment tweet to Texas last June -- which, fittingly, remains his only tweet -- attracted over 217,000 likes. By comparison, the Kansas City Chiefs' tweet 'announcing' their Super Bowl victory garnered 97,000. Even Fox News regularly writes about the kid.
The Take-O-Sphere is begging for a Golden Boy v. Golden Boy quarterback battle...
Is the Manning-Ewers Battle Officially on?
— Orangebloods.com (@orangebloods_) March 7, 2023
The Modcast is LIVE NOW: https://t.co/AaCMvzB6BJ pic.twitter.com/TkqVfz02oR
LIVE AT NOON - Spring Practice is UNDERWAY!!!
— Zach Smith (@CoachZachSmith) March 7, 2023
Kyle McCord vs. Devin Brown. THE Battle!
Also... Is there a QB Controversy at Texas? Quinn Ewers vs. Arch Manning... The battle of the 5 Star, #1 Overall Quarterbacks!
LET'S BREAK IT DOWN...https://t.co/kLSU1RZLSz
Arch Manning's first spring practice at Texas, Steve Sarkisian's comments spark media reaction: https://t.co/oH24q6WqDu pic.twitter.com/gGdXDUASew
— 247Sports (@247Sports) March 7, 2023
LIVE NOW 📺: https://t.co/NQSbYuNq5d
— J.D. PicKell (@jdpickell) March 7, 2023
Texas started spring ball!
Are we buying the Ewers vs Arch storyline? 🤔
+ other thoughts on spring practice for the Longhorns pic.twitter.com/XFtZXoqXA5
The competition is wide open at Texas. Who 'ya got? #Longhorns #HookEm pic.twitter.com/uN3gwNajw7
— Brandon Marcello (@bmarcello) March 7, 2023
... despite the fact that there's very little evidence of an actual quarterback battle on hand.
Here's the full quote that sparked the Schefter tweet.
"They all are open right now," Steve Sarkisian said. "I'm not worried about who's going to be on the cover of what magazine next week. I'm more focused on, is each guy focusing on what they need to do develop to be the best player that they can be."
In other words, Sarkisian gave the exact boilerplate quote every single coach of every single team gives at this time of year.
Furthermore, there are three reasons why it'd be surprising if Manning actually started over a healthy Ewers in 2023.
1. Sarkisian's actions last season and his own personal history indicate he is going to give Quinn Ewers every opportunity to hold on to the QB1 job at Texas. Sarkisian could -- and probably should -- have pulled Ewers from the Oklahoma State and TCU losses (Ewers was a combined 36-of-88 for 490 yards with two TDs and four INTs), believing lumps taken in 2022 would pay dividends in 2023.
"It's like when the gears are moving but there's no WD-40 in there. Those gears were grinding, and it felt that way for him pretty much all year long. This winter, it just feels natural. He's emerging as a leader. I'm watching him break the team down, do those things," Sarkisian said.
"He's serving for Arch, 'Hey, this is what it looks like. This is how to go about your business.'"
2. Beyond that, at this point in his tenure, it would be surprising if Sarkisian proactively chose to start a true freshman over a veteran quarterback. Sark started a first-year starter in 2021 (Casey Thompson) and 2022 (Ewers). The 2023 roster will be better than 2022 and '21, even without Bijan Robinson. In fact, outside of the running back spot, Texas returns everyone else on offense. The pieces are there to make a Big 12 title run this fall. At 13-12 two seasons in, Sarkisian needs to make a title run. Is he really going to choose a true freshman over a returning starer?
"My first year at junior college, we were 2-8 and I was contemplating, Do I still do this sport? My second year I was player of the year and an All-American, got a chance to go to BYU," Sarkisian said. "My first year (at BYU) we were a 7-4 team, didn't go to a bowl game for the first time in I don't know how long. The next year, I'm an All-American, we finish fifth in the country and win the Cotton Bowl.
"So I think naturally the quarterback's development and confidence affects everybody else."
3. Arch Manning does not profile as an "I start as a freshman or I'm gone" quarterback. In fact, he profiles as the opposite. The Mannings have mastered the business of quarterbacking. This is without dissent or debate.
I haven't spoken to Arch, to Cooper, to Archie or to Uncle Peyton or Uncle Eli, but I have to believe the plan -- if not in such blunt terms -- is for Arch to approach a billion dollars in total earnings by his 40th birthday. Patrick Mahomes signed a 10-year, $503 million extension before his 25th birthday, and the money in pro football is only going up. The Mannings clearly have a good nose for sniffing out off-field opportunities.
Plan A for all involved likely looks something like this:
Fall 2023: Ewers starts, Manning backs him up
Spring 2024: Ewers becomes a first-round pick
Fall 2024: Manning starts
Fall 2025: Manning starts
Spring 2026: Manning becomes a No. 1 overall pick, everyone sits in a hot tub with their soul mate
The Mannings picking Texas was about positioning Arch for April 2026, not September 2023.
That doesn't mean Arch will preemptively concede the job, though. An industry source who speaks regularly with the Texas staff indicated Manning blew away their expectations while on visits as a recruit. Consider that expectations were already high, seeing that he's Arch Manning.
"Quinn has an entire year of a head start, but I don't want to hold Arch back. I want to see how far he can take this thing and what it can look like," Sarkisian said. "He's a freshman in college, but he does take it serious and he wants to be really good."
None of this is lost on Ewers, of course. In fact, that's entirely the point. The axing of the mullet and the trimming down of the beard were not accidents.
"I give (Ewers) a lot of credit for recognizing what he needs to do from a developmental standpoint. It's never been a question of him taking this serious. He wants to be really good. He wants to win a championship with these guys," Sarkisian said.
If it were up to Sarkisian, a real quarterback derby will never materialize because it won't be necessary: Manning's presence will push Ewers to a place where, combined with his experience, the staff can't take him off the field.
"And the beauty of it, one of the guys he's competing with is taking it really serious and wants to be really good," Sarkisian continued. "That competition should ultimately drive the best out of both of them. That's what we're trying to create in our program at every position group, because when you have that, that's when your level of play continually goes up and up and up. You recruit well, you have a competitive environment, and they all get better along the way."
Of course, it's March. Wait until September. Wait until Ewers's first three-and-out, his first interception, his first loss. Then, the noise will be so loud it'll make Major Applewhite-Chris Simms seem quaint by comparison.
Before we close, consider one last thing. Don't take this column as a plea for sympathy for any of the principals involved. Ewers knew the staff a hot pursuit of Manning was underway when he transferred from Ohio State to Texas in December 2021; Manning obviously knew of Ewers' presence when he committed and signed. Sarkisian and the Texas staff spent more than a year planning, prying and praying for the opportunity to have the No. 1 overall player in the class of 2021 and the No. 1 overall player in the class of 2023 in the same quarterback room.
They wanted it, and now it's here.