Once upon a time, when yours truly was a college student, I met a peer that attended Texas State. I asked this gentleman if he enjoyed attending the school, and he said he did. When followed up to explain what it was he enjoyed about the school, this young man, name forgotten to history, replied, "Because it's so close to Austin and San Antonio."
While this nameless traveler's experience is surely not shared by everyone in San Marcos (30 miles south of Austin, 50 miles north of San Antonio), the results on the football field are indicative of a program that has struggled to build enough organic support to compete at the FBS level.
In 11 seasons in college football's highest subdivision, Texas State has recorded one winning season. In that season (2014), the 7-5 Bobcats were passed over for a bowl bid.
Such is life in San Marcos, who is now on its fourth try to find the coach to bring sustained, big-time success to the banks of the Guadalupe San Marcos River.
In speaking with multiple industry sources, FootballScoop believes these are among the candidates to replace Jake Spavital at Texas State, presented in alphabetical order.
David Bailiff: If Texas State is looking to create sustained success, it could turn to the last person to bring glory days to San Marcos. Bailiff was Texas State's head coach from 2004-06 and led the Bobcats to the 2005 FCS semifinals. That sprung him to Rice, where he won 57 games and a Conference USA title in three seasons. Bailiff is a Texas State alum, although a 64-year-old who was just let go at FCS Texas A&M-Commerce could be a tough sell for a program looking to find an identity in FBS.
Colby Carthel: If prior head coaching success is a prerequisite for Texas State brass, Carthel may represent the sweet spot between the 60-somethings and 30-somethings on this list. The 46-year-old is a lifelong Texan, the son of former West Texas A&M head coach Don Carthel (son keeps father on staff as a special teams analyst), and has a proven track record of success. Carthel is 82-40 with nine winning seasons in 10 tries. He led Texas A&M-Commerce to the Division II national title in 2017 and shared the WAC title at Stephen F. Austin this fall. Unlike rival Sam Houston, SFA has no immediate plans to join FBS, so Texas State would represent Carthel's first opportunity to lead an FBS program.
KC Keeler: Keeler, 63, is a professional head football coach in every sense of the word. This season marks his 30th as a head coach, most of them at the FCS level, with 265 career wins and 17 playoff appearances. His teams have played for three national titles and won two, most recently in the spring of 2021. After years of coveting an FBS job, though, Keeler finally brought the FCS to him: Sam Houston joins Conference USA next season. Without that card to play, would Keeler leave his stable situation in Huntsville for a rebuild at Texas State?
GJ Kinne: Kinne, who turns 34 this week, is one of the fastest risers in coaching. He entered the profession as a GA at SMU in 2017, and has garnered a promotion each following winter. That now finds him as the head coach at nearby Incarnate Word, where he's 10-1 in his first season. His Cardinals lead FBS in passing efficiency and scoring offense. In the immediate term, Kinne is focused on UIW's second-round playoff game with Furman this coming Saturday. In the long term, Texas State could face competition from richer suitors. Also, after jettisoning a 30-something offensive minded head coach, would Texas State turn around and hire a 30-something offensive minded head coach?
Curtis Luper: One of two coaches on this this list without head coaching experience, Luper was a finalist for jobs at New Mexico and UTSA. He's a Texas native and a former Texas high school coach who brings a wealth of Power 5 experience at Oklahoma State, Auburn, TCU and, now, Missouri.
Eric Morris: Morris, 37, left Texas Tech's staff to take over at Incarnate Word, where his 2021 team won the Southland Conference and an FCS playoff game. That success spring-boarded the 2022 UIW team's success, as well as Morris to the Washington State offensive coordinator job. Working with QB Cam Ward, who transferred to Pullman alongside Morris, the Cougars are in the top 40 in passing offense and went 7-5 this season.
Barrick Nealy: Nealy does not have the coaching experience of the others on this list -- 2022 marked his first on-the-field job as a college assistant, as UTEP's assistant head coach and running backs coach -- but he does have something the others do not. Nealy is, arguably, the most important player in Texas State's modern history, earning Southland Conference player of the year honors in 2005. Nealy spent 2011-17 coaching at San Marcos Academy. Given his lack of experience relative to the rest of this list, it feels more likely he'd return as a staff member than head coach.
Scotty Walden: Walden is also one of the fastest risers in the industry, dating back nearly a decade when he was profiled by this site after his Sul Ross State offense led the entire NCAA in yardage as a 22-year-old coordinator. Walden has quickly won over senior industry gate-keepers at each stop in his career: he went 7-3 as a 27-year-old head coach at East Texas Baptist, spent four games as the interim head coach at Southern Miss in 2020, and is now in Year 3 as the head coach at Austin Peay, where he has posted three winning records in as many tries and shared the ASUN title this fall. Walden is a Texas native who's passionate, connects with players, and will interview well; he may be the Texas version of Kenny Dillingham, or Kenny Dillingham may be the Arizona version of Scotty Walden. However, the same question that applies to Kinne also applies here.
Other candidates could emerge as the search develops. In the meantime, stay tuned to The Scoop for the latest.