What if Ohio State loses?

For the past two years I've written FootballScoop's Year End Top 25, and it's quickly become one of my favorite pieces to write each year. The gist of the idea is that we're rankings seasons, not teams, where everyone is judged on an equal playing field according to their resources and expectations: did you beat your rival, win your conference or win your bowl game?

Each year I've released the piece in the long drought between the semifinals and national championship, reserving the final two spots for the title game winner and loser. I haven't done so this year, because of one question I can't answer: what if Ohio State loses on Monday night?

It's a ludicrous thought on the surface. In the first year of the 12-team Playoff, where most of the 134 FBS teams started with an actual shot at playing for the national championship, Ohio State is one of two teams to do so. They won the Rose Bowl and the Cotton Bowl. How could a season that ends no worse than No. 2 in the AP poll be any lower than No. 2 in our poll as well?

Because this Ohio State team is not like any other in college football history. The Buckeyes have invested more -- monetarily and emotionally -- in this season than any in recent memory, and because of that they have more riding on this season than any in recent memory.

Don't take my word for it. The expectations started big, and they started early. 

"As of now this is one of the most talented rosters in the last decade, maybe ever," Urban Meyer said this summer. "I mean, that's a big statement. They've got to play. But you look at the quality of athlete at every position, I've never seen anything like it."

"I don't know if I've ever seen that many great players in that building all at once -- every position, every place you turn," Jim Tressel added.

This season started Championship-or-Bust, and the events that carried Ohio State to the title game only increased the demand to end the year with a trophy.

Ohio State, as we know, lost two regular season games. One of those -- on the road to Oregon, by one point with the Buckeyes driving for the winning score -- was forgivable. The other was not. Ryan Day said Ohio State's losing streak to Michigan was one of the worst things to ever happen to him and his family, and then went out and lost, again, to the worst Michigan team in four years, at home, as 3-touchdown favorites. "(W)e can never have that happen again. Ever," Day said before it happened again.

Because of that second loss, Ohio State did not even play for the Big Ten championship, let alone win it. AD Ross Bjork had to answer questions, twice, on whether he'd be forced to fire Day because of the Michigan problem.

That bitter prologue will make the story all the sweeter if Ohio State redeems itself with the program's first national championship since 2014. 

But, again, what if they lose? 

Ohio State would end a season with two snazzy bowl trophies, but what else? The losing streak to Michigan grew to four. The Big Ten title drought grew to four. And the national title wait will continue.

I don't feel qualified to answer the question, so I turned to some Buckeye-adjacent colleagues in the media, whose opinions were split.

"I don't want to say this in public because it makes me sound like a crazy person but I honestly don't think it should be considered that much of a success," one said. "Three big playoff wins were awesome, but you didn't fund the biggest budget in college football to beat Texas in the Cotton Bowl."

"I would say no because the program’s three stated goals are to beat Michigan, win the Big Ten and win the national championship and Ohio State would go 0-for-3 on those goals if it loses on Monday," said another. "I think this CFP run deserves to be celebrated regardless of what happens, but relative to expectations I think only a win on Monday would make this season a true success."

One media member would give the season a B if the season ends with a loss. "Not necessarily a success because you didn’t achieve any goals, but also not a failure," he said.

Still, one of the four said the season has already been deemed a success. "I think when you play for the national championship at the end of any season it has been a successful one. And along the way the Buckeyes picked up a Rose Bowl trophy and a Cotton Bowl trophy - unprecedented - along with two wins over Southeastern Conference teams," this person said. "Are you kidding me?!?"

One prominent member of Buckeye Nation stoked the belief that the fan base's expectations aren't too high: Urban Meyer himself. While not responding directly to them, Meyer's comments are a stark contrast to Kirk Herbstreit's screed against the "lunatic fringe" of Buckeye Nation during Ohio State's first-round blowout of Tennessee. 

"I'm going to speak about the Ohio State fan base. Are they rugged, are they tough, are they high expectations, do they expect you to win every game, beat your rival and win a national championship? I'll help you. You're damn right they do."

All of us on the sidelines can debate what this Ohio State season would mean if the Buckeyes lose as 8- or 9-point favorites on Monday night, but the group whose opinion matters most seems to know that a 13-3 season without a pair of gold pants, without a Big Ten championship trophy, and without a national title is not enough: the team itself. 

"We've got to finish this thing," Day said after the Cotton Bowl win over Texas. "And they know it."