If you're anything like me, you concoct millions of scenarios of how upcoming events may unfold, but life has a way of making both our wildest dreams and worst nightmares rarely unfolding. So it is in college football.
Not long ago we were daydreaming about 11-0 Army and 11-0 Navy buckling up for back-to-back games against each other, of a 10-1 Texas A&M hosting a 10-1 Texas in an SEC semifinal game, and of 3-way ties of unbeaten teams atop the ACC and Big Ten standings.
Now, none of those things will happen.
Ahead of a College Football Playoff rankings reveal that simultaneously means nothing and everything, here's a look at how the conference championship races stand in all 10 FBS conferences.
American
No. 18 Army -- 6-0
Tulane -- 5-0
Navy -- 4-1
The American Championship could be set as soon as Nov. 16. Army visits North Texas on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) and Tulane visits Navy next Saturday. If the Black Knights and the Green Wave win those games (and Tulane beats Temple this Saturday), Army-Tulane is your title game.
ACC
No. 4 Miami -- 5-0
No. 13 SMU -- 5-0
No. 19 Clemson -- 5-1
No. 23 Pitt -- 3-1
No. 25 Louisville -- 4-2
Miami's remaining opponents are Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse. SMU's are BC, Virginia and Cal. Clemson visits Pitt on Nov. 16, meaning there can only be a 3-way tie at the top, not four.
Big 12
No. 9 BYU -- 5-0
No. 17 Iowa State -- 4-1
No. 21 Colorado -- 4-1
No. 22 Kansas State -- 4-2
Texas Tech -- 4-2
Cincinnati -- 3-2
Arizona State -- 3-2
West Virginia -- 3-2
Colorado and Iowa State do not play each other, but CU has an opportunity to score an important resume victory at Texas Tech on Saturday (noon ET, Fox), a week after the Red Raiders won in Ames. After Saturday, CU's remaining opponents (Utah, Oklahoma State and Kansas) are a combined 2-14 in conference play.
If Texas Tech wins, the Red Raiders will be in a strong position. Joey McGuire's team would own victories over Colorado, Arizona State and Cincinnati, with an opportunity to beat West Virginia on Nov. 30.
Big Ten
No. 1 Oregon -- 6-0
No. 8 Indiana -- 6-0
No. 3 Ohio State -- 4-1
No. 6 Penn State -- 4-1
The opportunity for a 3-way 9-0 tie died with Penn State's offense last week. Barring a major upset (and Michigan over Indiana now qualifies as a major upset), Indiana at Ohio State on Nov. 23 is essentially a Big Ten semifinal.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky -- 4-0
Jacksonville State -- 4-0
Sam Houston -- 4-1
Liberty -- 3-2
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston last month. Sam Houston visits Jax State on Nov. 23, and WKU hosts Jax State on Nov. 30 -- meaning, if the Gamecocks beat the Bearkats in two weeks, we could have a Reverse Army-Navy situation in C-USA where the Hilltoppers and Gamecocks play in back-to-back weeks.
Meanwhile, defending champ Liberty already owns a loss to Jax State (and 1-7 Kennesaw State) but gets WKU and SHSU to close the season. The Flames haven't been extinguished quite yet.
MAC
Western Michigan -- 4-0
Miami (Ohio) -- 3-1
Ohio -- 3-1
Bowling Green -- 3-1
The road to Detroit runs through Bowling Green, Ohio. Or at least it does for now; the Falcons host WMU and Miami among their final three games. BGSU's MAC loss is to Northern Illinois, Miami's is to Toledo, while Ohio lost to Miami, so Bobcats need a RedHawks loss at some point.
Mountain West
No. 12 Boise State -- 4-0
Colorado State -- 4-0
UNLV -- 2-1
San Diego State -- 2-1
With three games to go, Colorado State has Wyoming, Fresno State and Utah State. That's important because while CSU owns a collection of Mountain West titles, the Rams have never appeared in the MW Championship, established in 2013. UNLV hosts San Diego State on Nov. 16.
That's important because while other leagues break ties among teams that did not play each other by evaluating in-conference strength of schedule first and then deferring to third-party rankings, the Mountain West does the opposite. In the event a 6-1 Colorado State and a 6-1 UNLV are tied, the Rebels advance by virtue of their non-conference wins over Houston and Kansas.
SEC
No. 2 Georgia -- 5-1
No. 15 Texas A&M -- 5-1
No. 7 Tennessee -- 4-1
No. 5 Texas -- 4-1
No. 14 LSU -- 3-1
No. 24 Vanderbilt -- 3-2
No. 16 Ole Miss -- 3-2
No. 11 Alabama -- 3-2
Missouri -- 2-2
That's nine of the SEC's 16 teams within a game in the loss column of the top of the standings.
Georgia can kick Ole Miss out of the race on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC), and LSU can do the same to Bama at night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Or, the Rebels and Crimson Tide can win and the traffic jam atop the SEC standings can get even traffic jam-ier.
According to https://t.co/LJDKs0U121, this eight-way tie would result in an Alabama vs. LSU SEC Championship Game (H/T @eeman0201).
— Robert Behrens (@rcb05) November 4, 2024
Sun Belt East
Georgia Southern -- 4-1
Marshall -- 3-1
Old Dominion -- 3-2
Georgia Southern owns a 24-23 win over Marshall, but Old Dominion can win its way in by virtue of its 47-19 demolition of Georgia Southern and its upcoming game with Marshall.
Sun Belt West
Louisiana -- 4-0
Arkansas State -- 3-1
Louisiana hosts Arkansas State on Saturday (5 p.m. ET, ESPN+). The winner there isn't going to be declared the Sun Belt West champion by the Associated Press, but Steve Kornacki and the New York Times needle will really like where they stand.