We're back, baby.
After studying the box score of every single FBS game over two straight seasons -- 1,788 and all -- we took the 2023 season off, for reasons, but we're back in 2024.
Two games are still left on the Week 1 docket as I type this, but with 98 games in Weeks 0 and 1 now in the books, it feels like the right time to examine what we've learned thus far.
For the uninitiated, the task here is simple. We study each box score to see who wins the game based on five factors -- out-rushing the opponent, out-passing the opponent, scoring first, winning at halftime, and winning the turnover battle. It's not the be-all, end-all in terms of statistical analysis of college football, but we've found it to be a useful exercise on two fronts:
1) By sheer numbers, it's taught us how games are won and lost in college football, and also provides useful mile-markers while watching a game. Teams that out-rush their opponents win 75 percent of the time; a 250-5 ground margin in your favor is obviously preferable, but a 51-50 margin works, too. Run the ball and/or limit the run better than your opponent, you're winning three out of four times. Teams that win the turnover battle win the game just under 75 percent. Teams that lead at halftime win the game just shy of 80 percent of the time; in fact, if there's one thing this exercise has taught us, it's the durability of the halftime lead in college football.
Teams that win all five factors went 146-1 in 2021-22.
2) In studying every single FBS box score, it illuminates the sheer weirdness of how many college football games play out.
We'll study plenty of both to begin 2024.
Week 0/1 Numbers:
-- Rush for more yards: 87-13 (.870)
-- Pass for more yards: 79-21 (.790)
-- Score first: 82-18 (.820)
-- Lead at halftime: 84-10 (.894)
-- Win turnovers: 52-22 (.703)
-- Win all five: 31-0 (1.000)
A few notes:
-- Granted we're combining two weeks (a week and a quarter, to be more exact), but 31 quinfectas is an all-time high. The previous record per my count (and who else would be counting) was 22.
-- Teams to get quinfecta'd in Week 0/1: Murray State, Howard, Lafayette, Duquesne, Jacksonville State, Southeastern Louisiana, Eastern Illinois, Temple, Western Michigan, Idaho, Colorado State, Furman, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Illinois State, UConn, Austin Peay, FIU, UTEP, Stony Brook, Eastern Kentucky, Bethune-Cookman, Rice, Southern Miss, Southern Illinois, Houston Christian, Charlotte, Wyoming... and West Virginia, Florida, and No. 14 Clemson.
-- Hidden within those 31 teams: Idaho. Yes, No. 3 Oregon held a 17-14 lead over FCS Idaho well into the second half of the fourth quarter, but the Ducks out-gained the Vandals 487-217 (380-168 passing, 107-49 rushing), won first downs 31-10, won time of possession 2-to-1, and won turnovers 2-1.
Oregon racked up 180 yards across five drives that ultimately netted zero points, and Idaho's 10 non-touchdown drives totaled 116 yards combined. All in all, I'd move my hand away from the panic button on the Ducks, at least for now.
-- The average score of the 31 quinfectas was 45-7, but if we're to choose one of the 31 that might not be as impressive as the numbers indicate, it's No. 17 Oklahoma State's 44-20 win over FCS No. 1 South Dakota State. The Cowboys out-rushed the Jackrabbits by exactly three yards (127-124), and out-passed the Jackrabbits by exactly three yards (267-264).
Granted, I'm the guy that picked SDSU to win straight up, so a 24-point win over the two-time FCS defending national champions is impressive no matter how you slice it.
-- If we're to set aside No. 1 Georgia, No. 8 Penn State and No. 19 Miami, for my money the best pound-for-pound performances of Weeks 0/1 were Arizona State and Sam Houston. Arizona State out-gained Wyoming 499-118 (27-9 first downs), while SHSU went on the road to kick off Year 2 of FBS membership and beat a bowl team from a year ago in every facet of the game.
-- East Carolina turned the ball over six times and beat Norfolk State 42-3. Let's look at the positive: ECU's sudden-change defense started the year in mid-season form.
-- Similarly, Louisiana Tech lost turnovers 5-1 but beat Nicholls, 25-17.
-- I wrote Thursday about how Stanford desperately needed to beat TCU to become a bowl team this season. The good news: Stanford out-played the Frogs in most facets of the game, scoring first, leading at halftime, winning rushing and winning turnovers. The bad news: the Cardinal lost the game, 34-27. Troy Taylor's team turned the ball over on downs three times in the second half.
-- Colorado was fortunate that North Dakota State game didn't last another five minutes. Or another play, frankly. The Buffs were out-rushed 157-59, and surrendered 11.2 yards on NDSU's 26 pass attempts. North Dakota State also scored first and lead at halftime. Simply put: if not for Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, Colorado loses that game by multiple touchdowns.
-- Speaking of Big 12 teams against FCS opponents from North Dakota (how's that for a specific transition?), Iowa State's win over North Dakota was mildly concerning. The Cyclones scored 21 points and ran for all of 86 yards on 22 carries against the Fighting Hawks.