Major changes point toward a new trend among title-winning coaches in college football

The 1990s were a time in college football where legendary coaches finally stepped up to the podium as a national champion after a long time in waiting. Bobby Bowden, Tom Osborne, Don James, Bill McCartney, Steve Spurrier and Phillip Fulmer all won championships after years (sometimes decades) knocking on the door. 

Then, at the turn of the century, the trend flipped. Bob Stoops led Oklahoma to a national title in 2000 in his second year on the job -- and his second year as a head coach, period. A year later, Larry Coker cashed in in Year 1 at Miami. Jim Tressel was the next national champion after 24 months at Ohio State. In fact, from 2000-2015, Mack Brown was the only head coach to win his first national championship after more than four years on the job. 

"Want to win a national championship?" I asked in 2015. "Better do it quickly, or you might not do it at all."

Dabo Swinney bucked the trend a year later after playing for a title in 2015, but the next "veteran" champion was not crowned until 2021. 

But, as On3's JD PicKell pointed out Wednesday, we may be in the beginning stages of a full-on trend reversal.

Seeing the last 25 national champion head coaches in list form really drives the point home. 

2000: Bob Stoops, second year
2001: Larry Coker, first year
2002: Jim Tressel, second year
2003: Nick Saban, fourth year
2004: Pete Carroll, fourth year
2005: Mack Brown, eighth year
2006: Urban Meyer, second year
2007: Les Miles, third year
2008: Urban Meyer, repeat champion
2009: Nick Saban, third year
2010: Gene Chizik, second year
2011-12: Nick Saban, repeat champion
2013: Jimbo Fisher, fourth year
2014: Urban Meyer, third year
2015: Nick Saban, repeat champion
2016: Dabo Swinney, eighth year
2017: Nick Saban, repeat champion
2018: Dabo Swinney, repeat champion
2019: Ed Orgeron, fourth year
2020: Nick Saban, repeat champion
2021: Kirby Smart, sixth year
2022: Kirby Smart, repeat champion
2023: Jim Harbaugh, ninth year
2024: Ryan Day, sixth year

What can we learn from this?

Each of the recent first-time champs won their titles in spite of -- or because of -- significant scar tissue on their hearts. Smart coached for a title in Year 2 at Georgia but had his heart ripped out in overtime by Saban. Michigan improved immediately under Harbaugh then got worse, and then sling-shot forward beginning in 2021. Even then, Michigan suffered painful semifinal losses in 2021 and '22 before breaking through in 2023. Day took Ohio State to the CFP in 2019 and '20, and was arguably a play away from winning the title in 2022 and '23 before winning the championship on Monday.

Swinney's ascent at Clemson was gradual, then rapid -- the Tigers weren't in the championship hunt until 2015, and won their title a year later. Brown had Texas in the AP top-6 three times before everything came together in 2005. Before that, though, you'd have to go back to the '90s to find similar paths to glory.

Getting Nick Saban out of the game certainly helps. The greatest coach of all-time was a certified trophy hog. How many coaches went to their professional graves without a championship in large part because of Saban? I count Mike Gundy (2011), Brian Kelly (2012, '20), Mark Richt (2012) and Chris Petersen (2016) as coaches who were credibly denied the chance to win or coach for a national championship solely because of Saban. 

The rest of the coaching profession should be more encouraged than ever. James Franklin (Year 13 at Penn State in 2025) finally reached the semifinals in 2024. Steve Sarkisian (Year 5) has been back-to-back years. Marcus Freeman (Year 4) coached for the title. Dan Lanning (Year 4), Lane Kiffin (Year 6) and Josh Heupel (Year 5) are hanging around the rim, although recent data suggest they'll have to make a Final Four run or three before fully breaking through. 

The good and bad news: Winning a national title is harder today than it's ever been. In the pre-BCS era, if the right team played the right schedule, the pieces could fall sufficiently into place to convince a panel of voters that a team with an "-0" or "-1" at the end of their record was the best team in the land. BYU, Colorado and Georgia Tech all won titles under this system. In the BCS era, a team had to go undefeated or close to it, then be better than an elite team for 60 minutes to win a crown.

Now, a team can lose two games across the course of the regular season, but they then must be better than the elite team across from them for three to four consecutive games. And, as we just saw, lowering the barrier of entry means it's much, much more difficult to eliminate a supremely talented underachiever like Ohio State was this regular season.

While Playoff expansion has obviously changed the format for crowning a national champion, the Portal and NIL have brought even bigger changes to building a national champion. Washington and Michigan were extremely old teams in 2023, as was 2024 Ohio State. Both teams paid the price of losing all that experience in 2024. Ohio State has more talent on its bench than either of those teams had, but it remains to be seen how the Buckeyes absorb losing 15-plus draft picks.

Building a title-worthy roster always required elite recruiting and development. Now, that level of talent acquisition must be met by a similar level of talent retention -- keeping your starters away from the portal, the NFL draft, or both -- and it doesn't come cheap.

The good news? While it's now more challenging and more costly than ever to win a national championship, it's now harder for everyone else to win a national championship, too.