I made a promise to myself to not react to the College Football Playoff weekly rankings show. The Tuesday night rankings are irrelevant. The committee told us in the very first year -- when TCU fell from No. 3 to No. 6 after beating Iowa State 58-3 in their season finale. They reminded us again last year -- when Florida State fell from No. 4 to No. 5 after winning the ACC Championship, two weeks after Jordan Travis's catastrophic injury. The show exists to make us mad, and that's all. Nothing matters until Selection Sunday.
But I happened to find myself at home last night, and so I tuned in to the rankings show for the first time since Selection Sunday 2023. Part of the job, right? But, much like my promise to myself to run three miles a day, to brush my teeth every morning, and to stop prank calling elderly care facilities in the middle of the night, here I am breaking another promise to myself.
I watched the show, and now I am mad.
In case you missed it, here was the top five from Tuesday night:
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
For some reason, this week's debate centers around Texas and Indiana, which would be understandable -- the two have defeated zero ranked teams between them -- if the season ended today. But it doesn't. From a résumé perspective, UT and IU's seasons are just getting started.
Here's what I mean by that.
To maintain its current ranking, Texas will have to beat No. 15 Texas A&M on the road, and then beat a really good team at a neutral site (No. 7 Alabama, if current projections hold) in consecutive weeks. It's my opinion that winning at Kyle Field will be the single most difficult ask of any college football team this season, but regardless Texas will deservedly be seeded no worse than second if they win out.
To maintain its current ranking, Indiana must win at No. 2 Ohio State this Saturday, then defeat No. 1 Oregon at a (quasi) neutral site in Indianapolis. Do that, and the Hoosiers will be the No. 1 overall seed in the field. Lose this week in Columbus and... well, we'll deal with that next week.
To maintain its current ranking, Penn State must beat... Minnesota and Maryland. That's it.
Penn State has the second "best" loss in the nation in the committee's estimation in falling 20-13 to No. 2 Ohio State to open this month. But what of the Nittany Lions' wins?
-- 5-5 West Virginia (No. 62 in the SP+)
-- 6-4 Bowling Green (No. 78)
-- 0-11 Kent State (No. 237)
-- 7-3 Illinois (No. 54)
-- 4-6 UCLA (No. 84)
-- 5-5 USC, in double OT (No. 21)
-- 5-5 Wisconsin (No. 50)
-- 6-5 Washington (No. 52)
-- 1-9 Purdue (No. 125)
Their upcoming opponents:
-- 6-4 Minnesota (No. 37)
-- 4-6 Maryland (No. 76)
Penn State does have one CFP Top 25 win in Illinois, who conveniently joined the rankings at No. 25 this week. Illinois's best win? It's either 5-5 Michigan, 5-5 Nebraska, or 4-6 Kansas. It's certainly not their 1-point win over 1-9 Purdue.
We can poke holes in just about everyone's résumé, that's the fun and the fatal flaw in college football. But the point is, Texas and Indiana's resumes are just now going in the oven over these next few weeks. Either the Longhorns and the Hoosiers will win and rise, or they'll lose and fall. If Texas wins out, the Longhorns will have beaten seven teams in the SP+ top 40; they've already beaten four. Indiana will have beaten two, but they're both in the current top five. Penn State will have beaten No. 21 USC, No. 37 Minnesota, and no one else.
But the Nittany Lions are set to cruise into a premier seed all the same, No. 5 or No. 6, where they'll host two of the lowest-seeded teams in the first round and then face the lowest-rated conference champions in the quarterfinals -- two teams who may or may not even be in the CFP committee's final top 10 -- without having to accomplish much of anything, and without even being asked to accomplish much of anything.
Penn State is on track to cruise into the College Football Playoff without having to play in the Big Ten Championship, while only having to play one CFP Top 15 opponent, at home, and without even having to score an offensive touchdown in that game.
And I want to talk about it. Now that I've broken this promise to myself, it's time to go prank call some old folks homes.