If not now, when for James Franklin?: On the Line

Saturday is James Franklin's 135th game at Penn State, and don't let anyone tell you he's never won a big one. He beat a second-ranked Ohio State team in 2016 and won a Big Ten championship that season. Rose, Cotton and Fiesta bowl trophies have joined the collection since he took the job.

But, man, those feel like a long time ago. 

Franklin has lost 11 straight games to AP top-6 opponents. More immediately, Penn State has dropped seven straight to Ohio State. The Buckeyes were ranked No. 6 or higher in all seven.

Yes, it's hard to beat top-5 (or top-6 if we're getting technical) teams. Yes, Ohio State has been the higher-ranked team in all but one Buckeyes-Nittany Lions clash in all but one of the 10 Franklin-era meetings thus far, and undoubtedly the more talented team in all of them. 

But what are Penn Staters supposed to think at this point? I'll tell you exactly what they think: that Franklin, and by extension Penn State, have hit their head on a ceiling that will allow them to rise no higher than third (and perhaps fourth, now that Oregon's joined) in the Big Ten. And maybe that's the truth. Penn State is not as resourced as Ohio State, and Michigan when it's operating under all cylinders. Maybe Kirby Smart wouldn't have Penn State any more competitive against Ohio State than Franklin has. Or, more realistically, Kirby Smart or someone of his ilk is never taking the Penn State job anyway, so maybe this really is the best Penn State can do in this day and age.

Rationally, that all makes sense. College football fans don't do rational.

Am I suggesting Franklin gets fired if No. 3 Penn State doesn't beat No. 4 Ohio State on Saturday (noon ET, Fox)? Of course not. But you can't ask fans to hit their head on the same ceiling for nearly a decade straight and then make a good decision afterward. Maybe they stage a coup, or maybe they check out on Penn State football moving forward. Either way, Franklin will have a tough time selling his message moving forward, particularly when you consider how stark the differences are in victory and defeat.

With a win: Penn State closes with Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland, so the Nittany Lions instantly become the favorites to meet Oregon in the B1G title game (sorry, Indiana) with a No. 1 CFP to the winner, and a No. 5 or No. 6 seed to the loser.

With a loss: The Big Ten Championship is likely out the door (Penn State would be behind Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State) and, unless Illinois hangs on, Penn State faces the prospect of entering Selection Sunday 0-1 against ranked teams. They'd be 11-1, but it'd be the emptiest 11-1 ever.

James Franklin isn't alone, though. There will be plenty of pressure on the visiting sideline at Beaver Stadium. Both of these head coaches have attracted the "can't win the big one" label, which will incidentally still apply to Ryan Day even with an Ohio State win because beating Penn State no longer qualifies as a "big one" in Columbus.

While Franklin's 27-game winning streak against unranked opponents is glossed over in favor of his losing streak to elite teams, Ryan Day is perfect against everyone who isn't: 2019 CFP finalist Clemson; 2020 national champion Alabama, 2021 Pac-12 runner-up Oregon, 2021-23 Big Ten champion (and 2023 national champion) Michigan, 2022 national champion Georgia, 2023 AP top-10 finisher Missouri, and current AP No. 1 Oregon. 

If Day's Ohio State record drops to an unforgivable 62-10, Ohio State fans really might force him out at the end of this season.

After winning the Big Ten in each of his first two seasons, Day will then go four straight without a conference title (with losses to Oregon and Penn State, Ohio State's B1G title chances would be all but done), and face a serious uphill climb to win a national championship.

Sure, Ohio State would have more raw talent than any CFP they'd face other than Georgia, but three questions would have to be asked:
1) Are we sure this Ohio State team is really that talented?
2) If yes, why don't they play to their talent?
3) If they've lost to two less talented teams already, what makes anyone think they'd beat four CFP-quality teams in a row, considering the last time they've done so is Jan. 1, 2021?

A stat to monitor here that was pointed out elsewhere: In games they eventually lost, Ohio State's defense hasn't forced a punt in 15 consecutive drives and hasn't scored a touchdown in its last five drives. 

The biggest SMU home game in four decades. It hasn't been that long since SMU hosted a top-20 matchup -- Oct. 24, 2020, to be exact. That day, No. 9 Cincinnati hammered the No. 16 Mustangs en route to an AAC championship and a Peach Bowl berth. That Cincinnati team made the Playoff the following year.

But, c'mon. An ACC championship gives the winner a guaranteed top-4 seed in the College Football Playoff. 

As such, this is the biggest SMU home game since Nov. 20, 1982, when No. 2 SMU tied No. 9 Arkansas. That tie cost the Ponies a shot at their only modern-day national championship; they dropped from No. 2 to No. 4, and were passed by eventual national champion Penn State. Had they won that game, SMU likely celebrates a national title after winning the Cotton Bowl against Pitt of all teams.

Now coming full circle, SMU is in a major conference and playing to stay in its championship race while rooting for one of Miami or Clemson to lose. Pitt's in a better position, since the Panthers host Clemson in two weeks. 

SMU is third in the ACC (conference games only) in scoring offense and defense; Pitt is slightly lower in scoring -- a 17-point outing vs. Cal doesn't help -- but the Panthers lead the conference in scoring defense. These are the two best running defenses in the ACC, but SMU has been significantly better at running the football (nearly 200 yards per game) than the Panthers. SMU also throws the ball more reliably than Pitt. So long as the Mustangs don't turn the ball over six times, they should win this game. 

Additional Games:

-- Tulane at Charlotte (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN): At 3-5, Charlotte would need to sweep its final three games to reach the second bowl game in program history. 

-- San Diego State at No. 15 Boise State (8 p.m. ET Friday, FS1): Another Friday night, another huge Mountain West game. Boise is one of two 3-0 MW teams (Colorado State the other), while SDSU is half a game back at 2-0. Those two wins (against Hawai'i and Wyoming) happen to be SDSU's only two FBS wins all season to date, so this would be a massive upset despite their proximity in the standings.

-- Duke at No. 5 Miami (noon ET, ABC): This game lost quite a bit of luster when Duke couldn't convert a field goal or a 2-point play to beat SMU, dropping the Blue Devils to 2-2 in ACC play. Miami leads the ACC in yards per play, and Duke is closer to 17th of 17 than No. 2 Clemson is to the 'Canes. And because I know Miami fans want to know: 17th of 17 in the ACC is Florida State.

-- Air Force at No. 21 Army (noon ET, CBS): Army and Navy have never been better together and, apparently that's come at the expense of Air Force. The Falcons are 0-6 against FBS teams, topping 19 points once -- in a game they allowed 52 to New Mexico. Navy thumped Air Force 34-7 a few weeks ago.

-- Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois (noon ET, FS1): Though they're no longer ranked and unlikely to return, USC was No. 11 when the Gophers took them down on Oct. 5. Illinois is No. 24 now. By my count, Minnesota hasn't won back-to-back games against ranked teams in the same season since 2000. 

-- Stanford at NC State (noon ET, ACC Network): At 2-6, Stanford must win out to avoid its fifth straight sub-.500 full season.

-- Memphis at UTSA (noon ET, ESPN2): Jeff Traylor previews the matchup for us.

 -- Vanderbilt at Auburn (12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Hugh Freeze joked this week he's sick of seeing "that quarterback." This will be the third time Freeze has faced Diego Pavia, and third different matchup for it to happen in. In 2022, Pavia and New Mexico State blew out a Freeze-led Liberty team, 49-14. Last year, Pavia came to Jordan-Hare and humiliated his first Auburn team, 31-10. Now these former C-USA foes meet as SEC equals.

-- No. 1 Oregon at Michigan (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Michigan is 3-16-1 all-time as the AP No. 1, but a more respectable 3-7-1 at home. Somehow, this is the first time Michigan has played the AP No. 1 since the 2006 Game of the Century, where No. 1-ranked Ohio State beat No. 2 Michigan, 42-39. Oregon has the Big Ten's best scoring defense in conference play, surrendering just 12.6 points a game.

-- Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Kirby Smart looks to improve his Cocktail Party record to 7-2 (Steve Spurrier was 11-1, in case you're wondering). Billy Napier begins a stretch that sees his Gators face four AP top-20 teams in four successive weeks. Can he find two wins? Also, this has to be the first time in college football history where a player was suing his opposing (and former) coach. 

-- Texas Tech at No. 11 Iowa State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Texas Tech has been at the center of the headset controversy in the Big 12. The Red Raiders should be able to rest easy knowing they won't be eavesdropped this time. 

-- No. 13 Indiana at Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET, Peacock): Kurtis Rourke should be back as Indiana seeks the first 9-0 start in school history.

-- UCLA at Nebraska (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Losers of two straight, Nebraska takes its third crack at ending its unthinkable 8-year bowl drought.

-- North Carolina at Florida State (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network): A former Florida State running back, Mack Brown is 0-8 against his alma mater. If not now, when?

-- No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Texas A&M followed its big win at Florida by sleepwalking through a 26-20 win over Bowling Green. The blowout of then-top 10 Mizzou was followed by a listless 34-24 win over Mississippi State. After the biggest win in years for the Aggies, the bigger question than starting quarterback is if the team musters a better effort this time around. South Carolina, meanwhile, had LSU and Alabama on the ropes earlier in the year. This is their last shot at an SEC heavyweight this season. Can they close the deal this time?

-- Louisville at No. 11 Clemson (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Similar to South Carolina, Louisville is a 5-3 team who played Notre Dame, SMU and Miami close. They'll get another shot at a top-20 team when Pitt comes to town on Nov. 23, but beating Clemson on the road is the biggest scalp an ACC team can claim. The Tigers are 50-3 in home ACC games since 2011.

-- Wisconsin at Iowa (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): In the 98th edition of this rivalry, Wisconsin leads 48-46-2, but Iowa has won two in a row and three of the last four. Iowa is averaging 27.6 points in conference games, which is their most in a full season since 2018 and more than double last year's 13.1.

-- USC at Washington (7:30 p.m. ET, BTN): At 2-3 and 2-4 in Big Ten play, the two schools that won 55 of the 128 Pac-8/10/12 championships gather in Seattle to ask themselves just what the heck happened.

-- Georgia Southern at South Alabama (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): At 3-1 in league play, both teams are still in the race for the Sun Belt Championship -- neither program has ever been -- but the path for each squad requires a win over the other.

-- Kentucky at No. 7 Tennessee (7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Tennessee has won three straight, and five of six, and 10 of 12, and 36 of 39, and... you get the point. UK did win in Knoxville in 2020, but the Wildcats haven't won in front of the full 100,000-plus at Neyland Stadium since 1984. Mark Stoops has taken UK to eight straight bowl games, but at 3-5 and with No. 5 Texas still on the slate, that streak is in serious trouble.

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