The tombstone resting above the carcass of Lincoln Riley's coaching tenure will be emblazoned with two words: We're close.
That was his mantra at Oklahoma when his defense continued lagging behind his offense, and it's been his message as USC has watched victory wilt into defeat multiple times this season.
“That’s the frustrating thing for our team right now,” Riley said last week. “We’re two plays away from probably being 5-0.” He's not wrong:
-- With five minutes to play at Michigan back on Sept. 21, USC had the ball and a 24-20 lead; they lost the game.
-- With 10 minutes to play at Minnesota last week, USC had the ball at Minnesota's 35-yard line and a 17-10 lead; they lost the game.
That led to a "burn the boats" type game as No. 4 Penn State visited the LA Coliseum on Saturday. Either way, Penn State represented something of a crossroads game for this USC season, and perhaps Riley's entire tenure in Los Angeles. Win, and USC would demonstrate a massive step forward toward a bounce-back 2024 campaign following the disappointment of 2023. Lose and, well, it's better to just win.
And in many ways on Saturday, USC won the game on the field. The Trojans manhandled Penn State on the ground, churning out 189 rushing yards on 7.9 a carry to Penn State's 118 and 3.8. Teams that out-rushed their opponents went 38-13 in Week 7.
USC exhibited game control. Penn State scored first, but USC then ran off 17 straight to take a 17-3 lead, and maintained that 14-point advantage at halftime. To date this season, teams that hold any kind of lead go on to win nearly 85 percent of the team.
USC also won turnovers, snaring three interceptions to Penn State's one. Teams that won turnovers, by any margin, went 36-6 in Week 7.
In fact, teams that out-rushed their opponents, won the turnover battle and led at halftime went 22-1 in Week 7 across FBS. USC was the one.
"It came down to the last play," Riley said afterward. "Again, it hurts, obviously, to not be able to get this done. We've had obviously a few games like this where we've had chances to win right there at the end, and to not make the plays, not have some of the breaks bounce your way, it's a gut-punch. There's no doubt about it,"
Riley now faces the challenge of his career. At 1-3 in Big Ten play, USC sits between 1-2 squads Michigan State, Northwestern and Rutgers, and the Big Ten's three winless teams, Maryland, Purdue and UCLA. A conference championship is completely out of the picture. Better fourth quarter execution could find USC at 8-3 when No. 12 Notre Dame comes to town on Nov. 30 (USC's next five foes: Maryland, Rutgers, Washington, Nebraska and UCLA), or the Trojans could be playing out the string after they've been eliminated from postseason inclusion entirely. Both options are equally on the table.
Either way, the days of Riley approximating USC's distance relative to the target feel like they're over. Either the Trojans will iron out their late-game issues and arrive, or they'll crumble and they won't be close at all.
Week 7 Numbers
-- Rush for more yards: 38-13 (.745)
-- Pass for more yards: 25-26 (.490)
-- Score first: 29-22 (.569)
-- Lead at halftime: 39-9 (.813)
-- Win turnovers: 36-6 (.857)
-- Win all five: 3-0 (1.000)
Year to Date
-- Rush for more yards: 364-94 (.795)
-- Pass for more yards: 298-162 (.648)
-- Score first: 334-126 (.726)
-- Lead at halftime: 368-66 (.848)
-- Win turnovers: 270-75 (.783)
-- Win all five: 99-2 (.980)