On the Line: Previewing the biggest games on the college football schedule

Jimbo Fisher's (lack of) performance has been the talk of college football this season, and rightfully so. After starting 2021 ranked No. 6, the Aggies finished unranked. Despite that underperformance, the Aggies again started No. 6 this fall, and at press time it looks like Texas A&M will not only finish out of the rankings come January, they might not finish above .500. 

At 3-4, A&M hosts No. 15 Ole Miss on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network) before closing with Florida, a trip to Auburn, UMass and then No. 18 LSU. Assuming a win over UMass and losses to the ranked teams, Texas A&M would have to sweep Florida and Auburn in order to reach the magical line of 6-6.

But Jimbo's plight is merely a symptom of the larger overall issue.

Texas A&M's 2022 campaign has been a collective lesson that paying a coach like he's a national champion does not magically turn him into a national champion. 

Last September, A&M extended Fisher's original 10-year, $75 million deal by adding another four years and bumping his salary to $9 million and rising, all the way through the final year of 2031. As I'm sure you've heard, it would now cost A&M north of $80 million to get out from under that deal.

But Texas A&M was not alone in overpaying to keep its coach last fall.

Michigan State inked Mel Tucker to a 10-year, $95 million extension, while Penn State handed James Franklin a 10-year deal at north of $70 million. 

Just as paying Fisher a larger salary has yet to deliver better results, Tucker and Franklin are the same coaches they were before those deals. We'll likely see that on Saturday.

Franklin and No. 13 Penn State host No. 2 Ohio State in the Fox Big Noon window. In Year 9, this will mark Franklin's 26th game against the Ohio State/Michigan/Michigan State triumvirate. Of the Big Ten East's Big Four, Franklin's 7-18 mark in the worst of the four.

There was a time when Penn State was legitimately neck and neck with Ohio State. The Nittany Lions defeated the Buckeyes in 2016 en route to the Big Ten title, lost by one point in 2017 (after leading 28-10 and 38-27 with five minutes to play), and lost by one point again the following year (after leading 26-14 midway through the fourth quarter). 

In the three games since, Penn State has been competitive but not threatening, falling 28-17, 38-25, and 33-24. While Ohio State has remained consistently elite, Penn State has been up and down: 11-2 in 2019, 4-5 in 2020 and 7-6 last season. They enter Saturday at 6-1, the one loss a 41-17 demolition at Michigan's hand, and 15.5-point underdogs on their home field.

Tucker happens to own a 2-0 record against Michigan, and will look to make it 3-0 against the 4th-ranked Wolverines on Saturday night (7:30 p.m., ABC). It's all the other games that are the problem. Tucker is 14-11 against everyone other than Michigan, including a 3-4 mark so far this season. That includes a 49-20 loss to Ohio State on Oct. 8.

Look, just about every program is going to come up lacking when measured against Ohio State, and overpaying college football coaches is extremely low on the list of humanity's overall problems (especially in Tucker's case, whose deal is financed by two billionaire donors). 

But is a reminder that a coach's winning percentage will not increase in conjunction with his salary. Texas A&M is not alone in learning that lesson the hard way and, with the way the college football industry works, other schools will surely join the Aggies, the Spartans and the Nittany Lions soon, too.

A possible semifinal game in college football's most competitive conference. Last Saturday produced a clear picture in the Big 12. No. 7 TCU is alone in first place at 4-0, while No. 9 Oklahoma State and No. 22 Kansas State are tied for second at 3-1. The fact that both OSU and KSU's lone losses came to TCU: A) strengthens the Frogs' stranglehold on first place, and B) makes Saturday in Manhattan (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox) really, really important.

TCU managed to rally past the Cowboys and Wildcats in consecutive games because it owned two key advantages -- health and home field.

K-State has the home field, but as for health? Hard to say. Oklahoma State rallied past Texas (again, at home) despite missing five starters, while K-State watched its 28-10 lead turn into a 38-28 loss simply because it was not at anywhere close to full health. Listed as "questionable/doubtful" below are K-State's starting quarterback, tight end, free safety and middle linebacker. 

Who takes control of second place in the Big 12 and remains in the College Football Playoff race? Whichever team's still standing.

For the first time in a long time, Tennessee is now the hunted. The last time an AP Top 3 Vols team played an FBS opponent was the opening week of the 2005 season. Tennessee skated by UAB 17-10, slipped to No. 5, lost on the road to No. 6 Florida the following week, and finished 5-6. The last time an AP Top 3 Vols team played an SEC team was all the way back in the 2001 SEC Championship, when No. 2 Tennessee lost out on a BCS national championship bid to a Nick Saban-coached, 21st-ranked LSU team.

Two things:

1. Vol Nation exorcised a stadium full of demons with that 52-49 win back on Oct. 15.

2. It's been a long time for Tennessee.

Human nature will compel No. 3 Tennessee to look forward to that trip to No. 1 Georgia next week, although the fact that Hendon Hooker was talking about UT-Martin mere minutes after defeating Alabama would give me legitimate comfort as a Tennessee fan.

The other aspect here is that Kentucky is a good team with good players and smart coaches, and nothing would make their season quite like a win in Neyland Stadium. 

Kentucky won its last trip to Neyland, a 34-7 thumping of a Jeremy Pruitt-coached team before quarter-full stands in the heart of 2020 pandemic restrictions. So, not at all analogous to the challenge Wildcats players will face on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). Big Blue's last win in Knoxville before that: 1984. 

"Anytime you’re playing top-ranked teams, these guys are ahead of the East with Georgia, great venue, SEC game against a top-three team in the country – big game and a big opportunity. We have to embrace that challenge,” Mark Stoops said this week. 

Also, Tennessee is going all-black under the lights.

I've hated every previous Tennessee black uniform, but those are sharp. 

Additional Games:

-- Virginia Tech at No. 24 NC State (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN): Would you believe NC State hasn't defeated Va Tech since 2004? Granted, Tech's ongoing streak covers just five games over 17 seasons, but still. This will be the 43rd straight NC State season without an ACC championship, but at 5-2 there's still plenty of meat on the bone for Dave Doeren, and particularly for Charleston Southern transfer quarterback Jack Chambers to make a name for himself with Devin Leary out for the year.

-- Louisiana at Southern Miss (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN2): The Cajuns and the Golden Eagles have played 51 times previously in a series dating back to 1923, but not since 2016. That changes here, in the first meeting of what could become a legitimate rivalry in the Sun Belt West. 

-- No. 14 Utah at Washington State (10 p.m. ET Thursday, FS1): UCLA's humbling in Eugene gave new life to Utah's hopes to repeat as Pac-12 champs. Thanks to that USC win, Utah needs just one more Bruins loss to be back in the Pac-12's top two. (The Utes also have to go Eugene next month, but that's a worry for another day.) 

-- No. 7 TCU at West Virginia (noon ET, ESPN): TCU becomes the third team in college football history to knock of four ranked teams in the same month, two of them stirring comebacks. What's their reward? An off week? A working vacation against a SoCon team? Nope. They get a trip to Morgantown. TCU hasn't won in Morgantown since 2014. Granted this is the best Frogs team of the bunch, but its last three voyages into the Smoky mountains ended in defeats of 34-10, 47-10, and 24-6.

-- Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse (noon ET, ABC): This would've been a lot bigger game if ND hadn't spit the bit against Stanford and if the Cuse had held on to a 21-7 lead at Clemson. But! It's still the Fighting Irish's third visit to the Carrier Dome, and a 7-1 start, a top-15 ranking, and the program's first home win over Notre Dame in 20 seasons is still an outstanding fall in upstate New York. In fact, the last two Orange games account for two of the 11 sellouts in Carrier Dome history. 

-- Arkansas at Auburn (noon ET, SEC Network): Three teams are tied for last in the SEC West. These are two of them. (I bet you can guess the third.) Considering the die seems cast on the Bryan Harsin era, Sam Pittman needs this game more than his counterpart. Arkansas hasn't beaten the Tigers since 2015 and hasn't won at Jordan-Hare in a decade.

-- Boston College at UConn (noon ET, CBS Sports Network): The Eagles and Huskies spent years meeting on the hardwood in the Big East, but only crossed paths for one season (2004) before BC joined the ACC. BC leads the all-time series 12-2; its most recent of the two losses came in 1910. At 2-5 on the season, Jeff Hafley's team needs to keep its most recent loss to UConn in the pre-World War I era.

-- Oklahoma at Iowa State (noon ET, FS1): Here's an ultimate "get right" game for both sides. Oklahoma stopped its 3-game losing streak with a win over Kansas, then took last week off. Iowa State also took last week off, having started Big 12 play 0-4 with the four losses coming by seven, by three, by one, and by three. Point being, both sides are looking at the other and thinking, "Okay, we can get this one." OU will lean on a rejuvenated offense with Dillon Gabriel back at QB; Iowa State on the conference's top-ranked defense. Only one will be right, and so either Iowa State will sink to 0-5, or OU to 1-4. 

-- Toledo at Eastern Michigan (noon ET, ESPNU): Toledo is alone in first in the MAC West at 3-1, while EMU is among a glut of three 2-2 teams. In their second straight road game, how do the Rockets respond after blowing a 27-10 lead at Buffalo, especially with QB Dequan Finn questionable? 

-- Florida vs. No. 1 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): It's the first time a No. 1-ranked Georgia has played an unranked Florida since... last year, when the Dawgs won 34-7. Georgia won nine of 10 from 1974-83, Florida struck back with 13 of 14 from 1990-03, and now Georgia has won four of the last five with heavy odds to make it five of six. In Year 7 at Georgia, Kirby Smart will face his third different Gator counterpart as Billy Napier joins the rivalry.

-- No. 8 Oregon at Cal (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1): We wrote earlier about Sonny Dykes's unique ties to TCU's biggest rival and we're a week removed from Chip Kelly facing Oregon but no coach has more ties to a conference bunk mate than Justin Wilcox and Oregon. Wilcox is not only the son, nephew and brother of former Ducks, he was born in Eugene and played for the Ducks himself. He's 1-4 against his former school, his dad's school, his uncle's school and his brother's school. 

-- No. 10 Wake Forest at Louisville (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network): Louisville has won two straight and three of four, and that's a good thing because this begins arguably the most difficult finishing kick in college football. Scott Satterfield's team closes with No. 10 Wake, James Madison, No. 5 Clemson, No. 24 NC State and No. 19 Kentucky. 

-- No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): On Oct. 4, 2019, Cincinnati knocked off No. 18 UCF to snap the Knights' AAC record 19-game conference winning streak. The game was played before a national audience on Friday night, an obvious launch point for Luke Fickell's program and a changing of the guard in the American. Fast forward to Saturday: Cincy has won 19 straight American games, and looks to break the tie against UCF. Which of Gus Malzahn's teams shows up -- the one that dropped 70 on Temple, or the one held to 13 by East Carolina?

-- Northwestern at Iowa (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): The over/under for this game is 37.5 with Iowa an 11.5-point favorite, which implies Vegas predicts a 24-13 Hawkeyes win. Which means Vegas sees Iowa scoring three defensive touchdowns.

-- North Texas at Western Kentucky (3:30 p.m. ET, Stadium): UNT lost last week in the final 15 seconds on the road to the defending conference champs. There's no shame in that. But now Seth Littrell's team, at 3-1 in C-USA, must now go back on the road to face 3-1 WKU, at a place the Mean Green haven't won since 2010. The Mean Green are second in C-USA in rushing, WKU is second in passing; WKU leads the league in run defense, while UNT is eighth of 11 in pass efficiency defense.

-- Missouri at No. 25 South Carolina (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Shane Beamer's team has won four straight, is back in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2018, and Gamecock Nation is fully bought in. A win here gives the 'Cocks their first 5-game winning streak since taking six straight to close the 2013 season. 

 -- No. 15 Ole Miss at Texas A&M (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): A&M has already lost three straight for the first time since 2014, and now looks to avoid its first 4-game skid since 2005. Meanwhile, DJ Durkin faces Ole Miss for the first time. Lane Kiffin has some thoughts on losing his defensive coordinator to a division foe. 

-- Arizona State at Colorado (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): Half the Pac-12 is currently either 1-3 or 1-4 in league play. Here are two of the six. 

-- Baylor at Texas Tech (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): The Joey McGuire era is off to a 4-3 start -- 0-3 on the road, and 4-0 in Lubbock. Now the Red Raiders get the defending conference champions, and McGuire's former team. Baylor scraped by a Red Raiders team led by interim head coach Sonny Cumbie last season (27-24); McGuire had already left Baylor for Tech by that point. Call this one the Mutual Respect Bowl.

“Well, I have a lot of respect for Joey and a lot of guys on the staff,” Dave Aranda said this week. “I mean this wholeheartedly, I want them to win, I want them to have success, just not versus us."

“I know there’s going to be nerves before the game and I’m going to get to see a lot of buddies,” McGuire said. “I was a part of recruiting about 95% of that roster, so I know those guys really well and care a lot about them. But at the end of the day it’s a football game in the Big 12 that we need to go win.”

Meanwhile, a Tech win evens the all-time ledger at 40-40-1.

-- Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network): The defending ACC champions take on the current ACC Coastal leaders. A win gives UNC its first 4-game streak since 2016 and all but ends Pitt's already-faint hopes of repeating as conference champs. 

-- Middle Tennessee at UTEP (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Would you believe MTSU has not won a game since embarrassing Miami back on Sept. 24? It's tough to win games when you're giving up 40 a game and allowing 20, as the Blue Raiders have done during their ongoing 3-game losing streak.

-- Stanford at No. 12 UCLA (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Is this the final Stanford-UCLA game ever? Probably not, but there are currently no scheduled games in this series that's been played annually since 1928. All 20,000 fans in the Rose Bowl will be sad to see this game go.

-- San Diego State at Fresno State (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1): SDSU and Fresno will play for the Oil Can for the 61st time. Equally important, these two Cal State system schools are tied with the other Cal State school (SJSU) for first in the MW West at 2-1. Fresno has already beaten SJSU, while San Diego and San Jose have yet to play.

Enjoy the games, everybody.