In the first two years of this project, it took nearly every bit of those two years (1,733 games, to be exact), to get what I call a Reverse Quinfecta.
To comprehend the magnitude of that statement, one must first understand what a Quinfecta is.
In 2021, we began tracking each FBS game across five simple factors -- rushing yards, passing yards, scoring first, leading at halftime, and winning turnovers -- to see how often they correlated with winning. Teams that won all five accomplished what we call a Quinfecta, and they were unbeatable (274-0) until Texas Tech finally did it to Oklahoma in late November 2022. The Red Raiders were out-rushed, out-passed, surrendered the opening score, trailed at halftime, lost turnovers, and still won. We call it a Reverse Quinfecta.
After taking 2023 off (for reasons), we're back in 2024, and someone has already RQ-ed an opponent two weeks in.
In Winston-Salem, N.C., on Saturday, Wake Forest scored first. The Demon Deacons led 20-17 at the break. They out-rushed the opponent nearly two-to-one, 141-73. They out-passed the opponent, 403-357. They took the ball away twice, while coughing it up only once. We don't officially track this stat here, but they even won points off turnovers, 10-0. And yet they lost the game.
Virginia, who trailed after the first, second and third quarters, won the fourth to pull off the unlikeliest of 31-30 victories, making the first team to pull of a Reverse Quinfecta on the road and the first to do so in regulation in this project's history.
In retrospect, the turning point of the game came at the 1:08 mark of the first half. Wake head coach Dave Clawson oddly bypassed a 48-yard field goal to go for a 4th-and-10 at the Virginia 30, which resulted in an incomplete pass from quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Turns out, Wake would need those three points.
The Demon Deacons turned the ball over on downs again in the fourth quarter -- declining a 53-yard field goal try for a 4th-and-9 pass, which ended in a sack -- and while also fumbling at the Virginia 29 with 1:24 to play.
Wake Forest did almost everything right on Saturday, but the handful of things they did wrong wrote them into the pages of Bizarre College Football Stats history.
"I told (the players) at halftime, the least important thing is the score at halftime," Virginia head coach Tony Elliott said afterward. "Get the game to the fourth quarter, and then go win the game in the fourth quarter."
The numbers would caution Elliott against such an approach -- we've got two-plus years of data that shows the team that leads at halftime goes on to win the game 80 percent of the time -- but it worked for the unlikeliest of victories on Saturday.
Week 2 numbers
-- Rush for more yards: 61-17 (.782)
-- Pass for more yards: 55-23 (.705)
-- Score first: 56-22 (.718)
-- Lead at halftime: 62-15 (.805)
-- Win turnovers: 45-10 (.818)
-- Win all five: 18-1 (.947)
Year to date
-- Rush for more yards: 148-30 (.831)
-- Pass for more yards: 134-44 (.753)
-- Score first: 138-40 (.775)
-- Lead at halftime: 146-25 (.854)
-- Win turnovers: 97-32 (.752)
-- Win all five: 49-1 (.980)
Additional Notes:
-- A Week 2 slate that was light on competitive matchups led to some lopsided yardage totals we might not see again this season. Georgia out-passed Tennessee Tech 332-18. Ohio State out-gained Western Michigan 683-99. Clemson put 712 yards on poor App State.
But the carnage wasn't limited to the heavyweights of the Power 4, either. Army out-rushed Florida Atlantic 405-42, which I thought might stand the test of time as the largest margin of the season, until I learned UNLV out-rushed Utah Tech 503-67.
-- UNLV ran for 503 yards, and the team's leading rusher totaled 101. A dozen different Rebels combined to log 62 carries for 503 yards and six touchdowns in UNLV's 72-14 beatdown of the Trailblazers.
-- Arizona State's 30-23 defeat of Mississippi State was lopsided in both directions. MSU out-passed ASU 268-69, but the Sun Devils out-rushed the Bulldogs 359-30.
-- I could write about the importance of turnovers each week, but two glaring examples jumped out Saturday. Auburn lost the turnover battle 5-0 in its 21-14 loss to Cal, while Arkansas squandered a 21-7 halftime lead and a 648-385 yardage advantage because of a 3-1 turnover deficit.
-- Last week I argued Oregon's 24-14 win over Idaho wasn't as close as the final score indicated. This week I submit the Ducks' 37-34 win over Boise State was more alarming than even the 3-point margin suggests. The Ducks were out-rushed 221-110, and through two games rank 113th in yards per carry.
-- The nation left Saturday marveling at how Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame, but the box score asks how Notre Dame hung so close to NIU. The Huskies won time of possession by nearly 10 minutes, out-gained the Irish by more than 100 yards, and won turnovers 2-0.