Two years in, we've learned a thing or three about winning football games.
FootballScoop has studied the box score of every FBS game played over the past two seasons -- 1,788 in all, 894 per season. Along the way, those box scores have taught us that teams that significantly out-rush their opponents win far more often than not. Teams that acquire more turnovers than they surrender win almost three out of four games. A halftime lead is surprisingly durable, lasting to the final horn almost 80 percent of the time.
Teams that accomplish all three objectives almost never lose. Throw in a couple more factors (passing yards, scoring first) and you're nearly impossible to beat. In 1,788 games, only once has a team lost all five categories yet won the game.
These five factors are far from perfect, and they're not fool proof.
Here were the five unlikeliest wins of the 2022 season, with some honorable mentions.
1. Texas Tech 51, Oklahoma 48 (Nov. 26)
Covered in great detail previously. In Joey McGuire's first season, the Red Raiders posted their first Big 12 winning record since 2009 and defeated Texas and Oklahoma in the same season for the first time ever. The OU win was the most unlikely of the season -- the past two, actually -- in my system, and Tech's 37-34 overtime defeat of Texas on Sept. 24 was the most unlikely of the year according to Bill Connelly's SP+.
So, does this mean the Red Raiders will have to pay the piper for their good fortune in 2023, or does McGuire's mastery of the ultimate undefined analytic TWTW (the will to win) mean Texas Tech will annually lead the nation in extracting victory from the jaws of defeat? Too early to say.
However, longtime readers will note Texas Tech was on the losing end of 2021's unlikeliest outcome according to Winning Box Scores, a 25-24 come-from-ahead loss to Kansas State that ended the Matt Wells era.
One thing we know for certain after studying nearly 1,800 games: weird things happen in Lubbock.
2. Middle Tennessee 25, San Diego State 23 (Hawai'i Bowl)
MTSU fell behind 14-0 and surrendered seven sacks, pushing the offense back 76 yards. In all, the Blue Raiders were credited with 30 carries for minus-66 yards, the fewest in any game in Middle Tennessee football history. Yet they won the game anyway, thanks to a 5-1 turnover advantage and a 17-0 points off turnovers edge.
SDSU failed to capitalize on numerous MTSU mistakes: they missed a field goal after an MTSU turnover on downs; turned it over on downs themselves after MTSU's lone turnover; and threw an interception after a missed MTSU field goal. For good measure, San Diego State fumbled away a completion in the final minute on a drive for a game-winning field goal try.
3. Mississippi State 24, Ole Miss 22 (Nov. 24)
No one knew it at the time, but the last of the late, great Mike Leach's 158 wins was perhaps the least-Leach like of them all. State was out-passed, scored upon first, trailed 16-14 at the half, and committed three turnovers to Ole Miss's one. Yet Mississippi State, the SEC's last-ranked rushing offense, out-rushed Ole Miss, the SEC's leading rushing offense. The Bulldogs ground out 97 yards on the ground while limiting the Rebels 78, tied for the fewest in any Ole Miss game since Nov. 10, 2018.
4. Troy 18, UTSA 12 (Cure Bowl)
Troy fell behind 12-0 and was dominated in total yardage, out-gained by nearly 200 yards. The Trojans mustered all of 40 yards on 42 credited carries. But they forced five turnovers, most crucially a fumble on a return of one of their own interceptions, which led directly to their first touchdown. In fact, thanks to Roadrunner turnovers, Troy's two touchdown drives traveled a combined 35 yards.
5. Minnesota 28, Syracuse 20 (Pinstripe Bowl)
Minnesota never trailed, despite gaining 215 yards to Syracuse's 477. Three Gopher drives all day traveled longer than 21 yards, and all three found the end zone. By contrast, Syracuse had two 30+ yard drives end in punts, two 37+ yard drives result in turnovers on downs, two 50+ yard drives net two field goals, and, in the key play of the game, a 49-yard drive turn into a 70-yard pick-six.
Honorable Mention:
Alabama 30, Ole Miss 24 (Nov. 12)
Maybe it was Just One of Those Years for Ole Miss. The Rebels led 7-0 after one, 17-7 at the half, 24-17 after three, out-threw and out-rushed the Tide, and played turnovers to a 1-1 draw. Yet they lost anyway.
West Virginia 23, Oklahoma 20 (Nov. 12)
OU scored first, led by eight at the half and by nine after three, out-rushed the Mountaineers and won turnovers 2-0. In the fourth quarter, the offense produced a three-and-out and a missed field goal, allowing the appropriately-named Casey Legg to win the game with a 25-yard field goal as time expired.
Southern Miss 20, Arkansas State 19 (Oct. 15)
If you were around last year, you read about my morbid fascination with Arkansas State. In Butch Jones's first season, the 2-10 Red Wolves finished third-to-last in rushing offense and dead last in rushing defense. In 2022, A-State improved to 3-9 thanks a run defense that jumped to 82nd (the rushing offense was still third-to-last). Alas, it would've been 4-8 if they'd run the ball a little better against Southern Miss. The Red Wolves 7-0 after one, 10-7 at the half and 19-7 after three, forced two turnovers while committing none, and out-passed the Golden Eagles, but were undone by a 168-50 deficit on the ground.
Wisconsin 15, Nebraska 14 (Nov. 19)
If you're a Nebraska fan, are you crying or laughing after this one? The Huskers led 14-3 going into the fourth quarter, forced the game's only turnover, and out-passed the Badgers. However, Wisconsin destroyed Nebraska on the ground (235-65). The Badgers ran 14 times in 17 plays in their two fourth-quarter touchdown drives, while the Huskers gained all of 27 yards in the final frame.
Nebraska vanquished its 8-game losing streak to Iowa six days later, then hired Matt Rhule two days after that, so perhaps this was the final exorcising of the Huskers' demons.
Nebraska 14, Rutgers 13 (Oct. 7)
Here, proof that God doesn't always hate Nebraska. Or maybe He just directed the lightning bolts toward the wrong shade of red.
At halftime, Rutgers led 13-0 and led turnovers 2-0. The Scarlet Knights (who out-passed and out-rushed the Huskers) gave back those two turnovers, including one pick that set up Nebraska's second touchdown. A third pick, with Rutgers attempting to drive for a game-winning field goal, sealed the game.
Iowa 13, Minnesota 10 (Nov. 19)
Iowa won every category in this game except rushing, where they lost big. The Hawkeyes were out-rushed 312-59; the minus-253 spread has to be the biggest for any winning team in 2022.
Purdue 31, Maryland 29 (Oct. 8)
Can anyone in the Big Ten play a normal football game?
Maryland scored first and led 23-17 in the final half of the fourth quarter (this was among the 5.1% of FBS games tied at halftime). The Terps won the turnover battle and even dominated Purdue's ground game, limiting the Boilers to 13 yards on 34 attempts. But Aidan O'Connell's 360 passing yards were too much: he was 7-of-8 for 123 yards on Purdue's final two drives, both touchdowns. Even still, Maryland scored a touchdown with 35 seconds to play, but Taulia Tagovailoa's 2-point equalizer was incomplete.
Washington State 17, Wisconsin 14
Another odd Big Ten-adjacent game, Washington State scored first but trailed at halftime, was out-gained by air and by ground, and tied turnovers.
Fresno State 37, UNLV 30 (Nov. 11)
UNLV scored first, led at halftime, forced the game's only turnover, and out-rushed the Bulldogs 221-68. Combine those factors together and I'd guess you win 95 to 97 percent of the time. This was the other three. Fresno State possessed the ball eight times in the game; they fumbled once, kicked three field goals and scored four touchdowns.
Final 2022 numbers:
-- Rush for more yards: 675-218 (.756)
-- Pass for more yards: 531-359 (.597)
-- Score first: 606-288 (.678)
-- Lead at halftime: 674-174 (.795)
-- Win turnovers: 503-180 (.736)
-- Win all five: 146-1 (.993)