Texas Tech attempted 52 fourth downs in Joey McGuire's debut season -- not only the most in FBS in 2023, the most by any FBS team since at least 2009*.
It goes without saying, but a team does not attempt 52 fourth downs by accident. The decision-making process is to keep the offense on the field is made long before 3rd-and-6 becomes 4th-and-4.
It begins on Thursday, to be precise.
"We meet every Thursday as a staff, and every single one of us -- QCs, GAs, and on-the-field coaches -- meet with Champion Analytics and go through what we did right and what we could have done different," McGuire told FootballScoop on Thursday. "And then we look at different scenarios around the country of what different people did right and what people could have done different, and that builds that philosophy."
Thirty-three of Texas Tech's 52 attempts were successful, a 63.46 percent conversion rate that placed 18th nationally among all teams and fifth among FBS teams that attempted at least 30 fourth downs.
"It goes to what we're doing at Texas Tech, what we believe in, and man, I have such a great offensive coordinator. I think he's one of the brightest coaches in America in Zach Kittley. The way he's been able to adapt so some of my philosophies in the way he calls the game, I see us doing the same thing," McGuire said.
A fourth-down hot streak was the difference in the game in Tech's 37-34 overtime defeat of Texas in September. The Red Raiders were 6-of-8 on fourth down and, crucially, did not pay a price for the two they missed. After opening the second half with a turnover on downs, Texas Tech's defense forced Texas into a fourth down failure of their own. After Texas stuffed a QB keeper on 4th-and-goal from the 2, the Tech defense forced a three-and-out and a Longhorn punt from their own end zone. The Red Raiders took over the ensuing possession at the Texas 30 and scored the game-tying touchdown in five plays.
In addition to turning a loss into a win, fourth down success allowed Texas Tech to turn tight games into comfortable wins and comfortable wins into blowouts. McGuire's team was 5-of-6 in a 42-25 win over Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl, and 6-of-7 in a 48-10 defeat of West Virginia.
Fourth down was not always kind to Tech, though.
Against NC State, for instance, a 4th-and-1 attempt turned into an 86-yard pick-six. Trailing by 13 early in the fourth quarter, Tech went for a 4th-and-8 at their own 35. That play netted three yards, and NC State hit a 38-yard touchdown pass the following snap. Tech lost that game 27-14.
Against TCU, Texas Tech ended consecutive fourth quarter possessions on downs in their own end of the field. TCU cashed in both changes of possessions for touchdowns, widening Tech's 20-17 deficit to 34-17 in a 34-24 loss.
In the 12 games in which Texas Tech attempted a fourth down, the Red Raiders were 6-1 in games in which they hit above 50 percent on fourth down, and 1-4 when they were .500 or below.
McGuire's fourth down calculus tells him the coin will land on heads 63 times out of 100. But he still has to live through the 37 times it shows heads and, at least for now, Champion Analytics lacks the technology to tell him which side the coin will land on ahead of time.
According to ESPN, drives extended by fourth-down conversions resulted in 129 points, while drives with failed fourth down attempts yielded 44 points the other way. The difference was about a touchdown per game in Tech's favor.
"You have to have to have a total staff buy in, because there's times you're going to stress the defense and they've got to understand they've got to go play on some short fields," McGuire said. "Lucky enough, I coach with a defensive coordinator that believes in that system. If we don't get the first down, he starts yelling through the headset, 'Let's go put the fire out.'"
Texas Tech finished eighth in FBS in fourth down defense, permitting 11 conversions in 32 attempts. Of 84 total fourth down tries in 2022, the Red Raiders won 54.
McGuire said there were two instances in which his gut told him to punt, he didn't, and Texas Tech failed to convert the ensuing fourth down. He also pointed to the TCU game as one he'd handle differently -- namely, taking shots on third down, setting up longer fourth downs than he'd normally attempt. "We've got some things that we built in that I think is going to help us this year," he said.
Texas Tech may or may not top 52 fourth down attempts in 2023, but the brand of football will remain the same. Tech's win over Texas was the unlikeliest of the season by one metric, its win over Oklahoma was the unlikeliest of the last two seasons by my metric. Texas Tech hopped on 22 of 33 total fumbles in 2022, making them one of three teams to rank among the top 20 in FBS in recovering their own fumbles and their opponents'. (Duke and East Carolina were the others.)
Haters and data analysts will say that type of good fortune is not repeatable, and the 2023 Red Raiders are due to pay for the 2022 team's good fortune.
Perhaps that the case, but McGuire believes his brand of football will lead to winning games at the margins, to an oblong football bouncing his way more often than not, and fourth down aggression is part of the reason why.
* Texas Tech's 52 fourth down attempts are in all likelihood an FBS record, but the NCAA does not have sufficient records to definitively prove or disprove it.