There are 134 FBS teams. These 19 (listed alphabetically) are in trouble.
Those 19 teams each rank 100th or lower in rushing offense and rushing defense (Wake Forest, 103rd in rushing offense, is 99th in rushing defense).
If we've proven anything over two-plus seasons in this space, it's how often winning the rushing battle, leading at halftime, and winning turnovers correlates with victory. Thus far this season, teams that rush for more yards than their opponent are 250-54 on the season.'
Fifteen of the 19 are Group of 5 teams, highly concentrated in the MAC. This makes sense and should level off throughout the season once Power 4 teams disappear from their respective schedules. However, I want to talk specifically about two teams, one from the Group of 5 and another from the Power 4.
In his first season at Arkansas State, which happened to be the first season of this project, Butch Jones's team was historically bad on both sides of the line of scrimmage. That year, the Red Wolves finished 128th (third to last) in rushing at 82.4 yards per game and dead last by a relative mile in rushing defense, surrendering 261.1 yards per contest to No. 129 Kansas's 249.8 yards per game.
Three years later, Arkansas State has improved on the lines of scrimmage, relatively. Four games in, A-State is 114th at rushing, two feet and change beyond 100 yards per game and 131st in rushing defense at 234 yards per game allowed.
Thus far in the Jones tenure, Arkansas State has out-rushed its opponents five times in 37 games against FBS opponents. That includes and 0-for-3 mark this season, with margins of 141-163 vs. Tulsa, 58-301 vs. Michigan, and 64-237 this past Saturday at Iowa State.
In the 32 games A-State has been out-rushed under Jones, the Red Wolves are 3-29 (corrected).
Within the Power 4 leagues, Oklahoma State -- who boasted the nation's leading returning rusher in reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon -- has plummeted to 115th in rushing while remaining poor against the run. The Cowboys are 102nd against the run after finishing 99th last season. Oklahoma State's rushing margin was 59-232 against Arkansas, and 48-249 in Saturday's loss to No. 10 Utah.
Amazingly, the Pokes are 1-1 in such games. For now.
Week 4 Numbers:
-- Rush for more yards: 51-12 (.810)
-- Pass for more yards: 40-24 (.625)
-- Score first: 44-20 (.688)
-- Lead at halftime: 53-9 (.855)
-- Win turnovers: 37-6 (.860)
-- Win all five: 14-0 (1.000)
Year to Date:
-- Rush for more yards: 250-54 (.822)
-- Pass for more yards: 214-91 (.702)
-- Score first: 223-82 (.731)
-- Lead at halftime: 250-43 (.853)
-- Win turnovers: 174-47 (.787)
-- Win all five: 80-1 (.988)
Additional notes:
-- Astute readers will not the rushing and passing denominators do not add up this week. That's because Cal and Florida State both rushed for exactly 107 yards on Saturday.
-- On the flip side of the section above, BYU was out-rushed 228-92 by Kansas State, yet won the game 38-9. That's what 3-0 turnover margin plus a punt return touchdown will do for you.
-- Staying in the Big 12, Baylor scored first, led at halftime, trounced Colorado on the ground, yet its pass defense lost them the game. Something I didn't know: the fumble that went out of the end zone and ended the game technically did not count as a turnover, at least not on ESPN's box score.
-- Washington State (vs. San Jose State) and Tulsa (vs. Louisiana Tech) both pulled off Quinfectas on Saturday, yet won by two and three points, respectively. Typically those margins are in the 20s and 30s.
-- Another Quinfecta not as close as the final score: Tennessee 25, Oklahoma 15.
-- SMU out-rushed TCU 238-65 and won turnovers 5-1. If I was Sonny Dykes, I'd get kicked out, too.
-- UConn dropped 421 rushing yards on Florida Atlantic.
-- Penn State dropped a school-record 718 yards on Kent State, while allowing 67. I'd like to know the last FBS vs. FBS game with a 651 yardage differential.
-- Northern Illinois dominated Buffalo everywhere but where it mattered. The Huskies scored first, led 14-3 at the half, won passing 194-107 and won rushing 165-77, yet lost turnovers 2-1 and, thus, the game. An interception in NIU territory in the fourth quarter was costly.
-- Navy ran for a customary 361 yards and five touchdowns while also throwing for 205 yards and two touchdowns on 14 attempts in its 56-44 win over Memphis. An 86-yard pick-six with 23 seconds left was the difference.